Yemen Economic Forecast

Yemen Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

Fighting between Iran-aligned Houthi forces and Saudi-backed government troops has intensified in the port city of Hodeidah in recent days, which is a critical entry-exit point for merchandise trade. This has dampened raised hopes of peace prospects; earlier in May, the UN had praised the Houthis for pulling out of the city “partly as agreed” under the terms of a long-delayed withdrawal plan. A return to peace is vital for the downtrodden economy, which has been in the grips of a severe five-year long recession. In addition, conflict has raged elsewhere across the country, even spilling over into Saudi Arabia, with Houthis targeting oil facilities more than 110 miles inside the country using armed drones. Against this backdrop, the UN World Food Programme warned it could suspend aid to Yemen.

Yemen Economic Growth

The economy is expected to eke out an expansion in 2019 for the first time in six years on the back of a miserably-low base effect; however, this is by no means guaranteed given the dire situation. Met the why particular panelists project the economy to expand 0.7% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.5% in 2020.

Yemen Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.727.528.329.130.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3441,164937761-  
GDP (USD bn)35.832.026.522.2-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.6-11.6-29.2-9.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-7.1-12.0-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)48.251.670.9-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.08.239.45.020.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.0015.0015.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)214.9215.0215.2250.2250.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)215.0215.0215.0241.0250.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.3-4.7-11.4-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.5-1.5-3.0-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-9.6-6.1-6.9-  
Exports (USD billion)7.12.50.50.2-  
Imports (USD billion)13.312.16.67.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.4-64.6-81.5-60.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)17.9-9.1-45.57.1-  
International Reserves (USD)5.34.72.0-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.124.527.531.9-  

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Yemen Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate250.40.0 %Jun 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jun 13

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