Yemen Economic Forecast

Yemen Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

The government and Houthi rebels agreed to a ceasefire in early December, brokered under the guidance of the UN. Both parties withdrew forces from the besieged port city of Hodeidah, which historically has brought most food and fuel supplies into Yemen and is currently a stronghold of the Houthi rebels. Another round of UN-backed talks is scheduled at the end of January, during which a framework for political negotiations is to be discussed. However, in a sign of the difficulties ahead, the government and its regional backers—namely, Saudi Arabia and the UAE—have accused the Houthi rebels of violating the ceasefire agreement amid reports of shelling around the city. Meanwhile, in recent weeks the IMF has called for increased donor support for Yemen.

Yemen Economic Growth

This year the economy is expected to return to growth for the first time in six years, although this is primarily due to a miserably-low base effect. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to expand 4.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.0% in 2020.

Yemen Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.727.528.329.130.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3441,164937761-  
GDP (USD bn)35.832.026.522.2-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.6-11.6-29.2-9.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-7.1-12.0-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)48.251.670.9-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.08.239.45.020.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.0015.0015.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)214.9215.0215.2250.2250.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)215.0215.0215.0241.0250.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.3-4.7-11.4-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.5-1.5-3.0-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-9.6-6.1-6.9-  
Exports (USD billion)7.12.50.50.2-  
Imports (USD billion)13.312.16.67.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.4-64.6-81.5-60.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)17.9-9.1-45.57.1-  
International Reserves (USD)5.34.72.0-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.124.527.531.9-  

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Yemen Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate250.20.0 %Jan 30
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 30

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