Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

The economy recorded its strongest annual expansion in a decade in 2018, rounded off by a surge in growth in the final quarter. A stellar performance from the services sector and brisk industry and construction activity powered the Q4 GDP print, while agricultural output also picked up. The manufacturing subsector was a star performer in Q4, and in 2018 overall, while flourishing tourism was also a key driver of growth. Momentum in the industrial sector should spill over into Q1 as seen by companies’ upbeat business confidence. In other news, the government recently announced plans to revive a USD 58 billion high-speed rail line project from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City. The railway, if approved by the National Assembly, would boost infrastructure spending significantly and could support tourism and economic activity along the route once operational.

Vietnam Economic Growth

The outlook for 2019 remains bright, although growth is expected to slow from 2018’s robust showing. FDI inflows are expected to support export-oriented sectors and fortify Vietnam’s expanding role as a manufacturing hub in the region. Greater economic integration should also buoy the external sector and bring a fresh wave of FDI inflows. Moreover, the country is expected to capture diverted supply chains and company relocations due to persisting US-China trade tensions. Met the why particular panelists project the economy expanding 6.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.3% in 2020.

Vietnam Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)89.890.791.792.793.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,8932,0292,0332,1112,355
GDP (USD bn)170184186196221
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.46.06.76.26.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.26.19.37.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.39.39.49.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.97.611.07.39.4
Unemployment Rate3.63.43.43.23.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.6-6.3-6.3-5.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.855.057.059.8-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.917.716.218.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.01.80.64.72.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.64.10.62.73.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.33.3-0.3-0.52.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.006.506.506.506.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21,09521,38822,48522,77122,711
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,02921,19821,92922,37022,716
Current Account (% of GDP)4.65.10.34.62.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)7.79.40.69.06.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.40.8-4.12.12.9
Exports (USD billion)133150162177215
Imports (USD billion)133149166174212
Exports (annual variation in %)16.512.67.99.021.6
Imports (annual variation in %)18.212.311.35.021.4
International Reserves (USD)25.934.228.336.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)38.539.341.744.5-  

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Vietnam Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.90-0.13 %Jan 30
Exchange Rate23,2040.01 %Jan 30
Stock Market9160.15 %Jan 30

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