Venezuela: Drop in car sales softens in November

Annual car sales fell 53.6% over the same month last year and totaled 1,296 units in November, according to figures from the Venezuelan Automotive Chamber (CAVENEZ, Camara Automotriz de Venezuela). The reading was a relative improvement over October’s 72.4% contraction and marks the highest figure in three months.

In the 12 months up to November, car sales reached 21,389 units, which was the lowest print on record. November’s result represented no change from last year’s figure for the same period (October: -6.6% year-on-year). Car sales currently total just a fraction of the peak of 491,899 units recorded in calendar year 2007. Extreme supply shortages due to government restrictions on both assembly plants and importers have severely hampered sales of vehicles in recent years.

Given the limited availability of timely data for the real sector, analysts often use car sales as a proxy for private consumption. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect private consumption to decline 7.7% in 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel sees private consumption falling 5.2%, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast.