Venezuela Economic Outlook
August 7, 2018The economy remains in dire shape. According to the opposition-controlled congress, the economy contracted 12% year-on-year in the first quarter on the back of falling oil output—a reflection of years of chronic underinvestment and mismanagement in the all-important industry. In June, oil production slipped to a new multi-year low while the number of active oil rigs dropped to the lowest level in over 15 years, pointing to further declines in output. Moreover, the bolivar continued to tumble in both the official and parallel markets in July, further feeding into spiraling inflation. In late July, President Nicolás Maduro announced his first set of economic measures that seek to contain hyperinflation and stabilize the free-falling bolivar, which include a monetary reconversion and potential loosening of currency controls. The details of how these policies would be implemented, however, remain unknown.
Venezuela Economic GrowthRampant inflation, dwindling oil production and a dysfunctional exchange rate system are expected to keep the economy in depression. Increased financial pressure from sanctions also compound the country’s woes. Furthermore, the recent government proposals are expected to be ineffective in tackling the crisis. The severity of the crisis may generate the conditions for a political transition, with the latest incident being an apparent assassination attempt on President Maduro on 4 August, and is a scenario that some of our panelists have begun factoring into their forecasts. Met the why particular panelists see the economy contracting 11.3% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the panel sees GDP falling 4.1%.
Venezuela Economy Data
5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 15|
|Stock Market||160,676||2.04 %||Aug 15|
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Venezuela Economic News
July 9, 2018
At the twentieth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 28 June, the bolivar sold at 134,262.5 VEF per EUR (approximately 115,000 VEF per USD), weakening 20.1% from the 111,734.4 VEF per EUR (approximately 96,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 25 June.
July 5, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil came in at USD 64.5 per barrel (pb) in June, falling 1.2% from May’s average of USD 65.2 pb.
June 11, 2018
At the seventeenth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 8 June, the bolivar sold at 94,112 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD), weakening 0.8% from the 93,392 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 1 June.
June 8, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil reached USD 65.2 per barrel (pb) in May, the highest level in over three years.
May 15, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil reached USD 64.2 per barrel (pb) in April, the highest level in over three years.