Venezuela Economic Outlook
January 15, 2019Facing fierce criticism at home and abroad, President Nicolás Maduro was sworn in to serve a new six-year term on 11 January after being reelected in the May 2018 presidential election that was widely condemned as illegitimate. This comes against a dire economic backdrop as the economy remains in crisis with no end in sight. Oil prices slumped after hitting four-year highs in October, which, coupled with faltering oil production—down nearly a third from January 2018 to 1.1 million bpd in November 2018 according to secondary sources—have undoubtedly put a strain on crucial export earnings and government revenues. On a brighter note, in a bid to revamp output, two major oil deals between the state-run oil firm, PDVSA, and U.S.-based Erepla and France’s Maurel & Prom were announced in early-January. Erepla is set to invest up to USD 500 million in three oilfields, while Maurel & Prom would invest USD 110 million for a 11% stake in the Petroregional del Lago joint venture.
Venezuela Economic GrowthThe near-term outlook remains bleak, with GDP seen contracting for the sixth consecutive year in 2019. The economy is expected to continue to be crippled by runaway inflation, dwindling oil output and a dysfunctional exchange rate regime. Financial sanctions which hinder the country’s ability to access foreign credit and restructure debt only exacerbate the dire situation. Given the severity of the crisis, conditions may emerge for a political transition, a scenario that some of our panelists have been factoring into their forecasts. Met the why particular panelists see the economy contracting 9.7% in 2019, which is down 1.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel sees GDP falling 1.4%.
Venezuela Economy Data
5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 17|
|Stock Market||5,764||2.04 %||Jan 30|
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Venezuela Economic News
February 12, 2019
On 28 January, the Trump administration significantly increased the economic pressure on President Nicolás Maduro’s government by announcing sweeping sanctions against PDVSA, the state-owned oil firm.
September 11, 2018
On 20 August, a series of far-reaching economic reforms came into effect as President Nicolás Maduro once again strived to tackle spiraling inflation, stabilize the freefalling currency and overcome the deep economic crisis gripping the country.
July 9, 2018
At the twentieth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 28 June, the bolivar sold at 134,262.5 VEF per EUR (approximately 115,000 VEF per USD), weakening 20.1% from the 111,734.4 VEF per EUR (approximately 96,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 25 June.
July 5, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil came in at USD 64.5 per barrel (pb) in June, falling 1.2% from May’s average of USD 65.2 pb.
June 11, 2018
At the seventeenth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 8 June, the bolivar sold at 94,112 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD), weakening 0.8% from the 93,392 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 1 June.