Venezuela Economic Forecast

Venezuela Economic Outlook

October 11, 2017

President Nicolás Maduro addressed the Russian Energy Week forum on 4 October and affirmed that the nation would meet its debt obligations despite the imposition of a fresh round of sanctions by the U.S. The sanctions restrict the ability of the cash-strapped Venezuelan government to raise new debt from U.S. financial markets, amid increasing worldwide diplomatic isolation. Taking a softer stance, Russia is looking at the prospects of restructuring Venezuela’s bilateral debt payments. Maduro’s newly-introduced measures to peg the bolivar to a basket of currencies excluding the U.S. dollar and no longer accept payments in U.S. dollars for oil sales, in a bid to subvert the U.S. sanctions, fail to address the fundamental imbalances that have precipitated a lethal inflation-depreciation spiral. Meanwhile, campaigning for regional elections to appoint state governors to be held on 15 October kicked off on 23 September, ramping up tensions between the government and opposition.

Venezuela Economy Data

Population (million)29.429.830.230.631.0
GDP per capita (USD)12,95212,38115,929-  -  
GDP (USD bn)380369481-  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.61.3-3.9-5.7-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)12.3-1.9-8.8-11.1-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.04.7-3.4-7.8-  
Investment (annual variation in %)23.3-9.0-16.9-17.6-  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)1.8-0.3-7.2-  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate7.  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.9-1.9-12.9-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.631.328.5-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)61.069.764.0111159
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)21.111.662.2122-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)16.652.4-  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)14.5014.7414.8414.5914.62
Stock Market (annual variation in %)30348041.0278117
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.306.306.306.3011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.306.096.306.309.29
Current Account (% of GDP)  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)  
Trade Balance (USD billion)31.931.627.2-  -  
Exports (USD billion)88.888.874.7-  -  
Imports (USD billion)  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.30.0-15.8-  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.80.0-16.9-  -  
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)34.435.928.2-  -  

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Venezuela Facts

Bond Yield5.500.0 %Aug 19
Exchange Rate11.000.0 %Oct 13
Stock Market5340.36 %Oct 13

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Venezuela Economic Growth

October 11, 2017

The new U.S. sanctions will weigh heavily on the crippled economy, which together with the authority’s measures failing to address the underlying structural problems wreaking havoc on the economy, indicates that the three-year long recession will continue into next year. Met the why particular panelists see the economy shrinking 8.3% in 2017. For 2018, the contraction is expected to soften to 3.2%, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Venezuela Economic News

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