Venezuela Economic Outlook
June 11, 2019A rare release of data by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 28 May revealed the sheer magnitude of the crisis currently gripping the country. Notably, the economy has shrunk by about half since 2013, with output plunging to levels not seen since the late 1990s. Moreover, despite oil production recovering by 28,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April from March, it has plummeted by more than 33% overall since January amid the crushing weight of oil sanctions and the power blackouts in March. Underlining the effect of U.S. sanctions, oil exports reportedly fell by nearly a fifth month-on-month to 874,500 bpd in May as some customers stopped purchasing oil from PDVSA, the state-owned oil company, to comply with the late-April deadline. On the political front, the power struggle between President Nicolás Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaidó seems far from over as representatives of both parties failed to reach a diplomatic solution to the crisis in negotiations hosted by Norway in late May.
Venezuela Economic GrowthThe near-term outlook is dire. The political stalemate between Maduro and Guaidó seems set to drag on, while financial sanctions and the oil embargo aimed at hindering the government’s access to hard currency, which accounts for the overwhelming majority of imports, worsens an already-crippled economy that has been stuck in depression for years. The possibility of a political transition remains high, a scenario which some of our panelists have factored into their forecasts. Met the why particular panelists see the economy contracting 24.6% in 2019, which is down 2.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel sees GDP falling 3.8%.
Venezuela Economy Data
5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 17|
|Stock Market||14,486||2.04 %||Jun 13|
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Venezuela Economic News
June 11, 2019
National consumer prices jumped 33.8% from the previous month in April, following March’s 34.8% month-on-month surge, according to the trove of data released by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on 28 May.
May 28, 2019
On 28 May, the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) released macroeconomic data for the first time in nearly four years, highlighting the extent of the profound economic crisis currently gripping the country.
May 14, 2019
The Venezuelan bolívar soberano was sharply devalued, yet again, by the Central Bank (Banco Central de Venezuela, BCV) on 22 April.
February 12, 2019
On 28 January, the Trump administration significantly increased the economic pressure on President Nicolás Maduro’s government by announcing sweeping sanctions against PDVSA, the state-owned oil firm.
September 11, 2018
On 20 August, a series of far-reaching economic reforms came into effect as President Nicolás Maduro once again strived to tackle spiraling inflation, stabilize the freefalling currency and overcome the deep economic crisis gripping the country.