Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

Growth momentum appears to have carried over into 2019, on the heels of last year’s robust expansion. Buoyant investment activity spearheaded growth in 2018, following a successful foreign exchange liberalization and reform to the tax system, which propelled rapid credit growth. Turning to the first quarter of this year, industrial output continued to increase at a healthy pace in January-February, chiefly driven by higher manufacturing production. On the external front, metrics were also upbeat: Merchandise exports surged in double digits in the same period, amid booming demand from Uzbekistan’s key trading partners—China, Russia and Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, on 1 March, authorities lifted a ban on repatriating profits from equity sales, which should boost local capital markets.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to remain sturdy this year, largely on the back of strong investment activity growth and healthy private consumption amid ongoing reforms and improving business conditions. Global trade-related uncertainties and excessive domestic credit growth that might spur inflation present major risks to the outlook, however. Our panelists expect GDP to grow 5.0% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.6% in 2020.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)30.230.831.331.832.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,9202,0632,1302,1161,514
GDP per capita (EUR)1,4771,5071,9201,9041,322
GDP (USD bn)58.163.566.767.148.6
GDP (EUR bn)44.746.360.160.642.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.08.07.97.85.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.711.911.67.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.27.40.816.47.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.20.10.10.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.58.89.711.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.79.18.58.012.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0011.009.009.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,2022,4222,8113,2188,120
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0922,3082,5702,9655,123
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0342,9313,0523,3949,751
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,7803,0642,8523,2795,869
Current Account (% of GDP)2.81.7-0.51.42.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.61.1-0.40.91.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.4-6.9-4.3-2.4-  
Exports (USD billion)7.96.96.57.7-  
Imports (USD billion)13.313.811.811.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)35.1-13.1-4.818.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)16.73.8-21.5-6.6-  
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)18.421.022.324.3-  

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Uzbekistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate8,4510.0 %Apr 12

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