Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

According to preliminary national accounts data released by the State Statistics Committee, the economy expanded at a healthy 5.1% annual clip in 2018, decelerating slightly from the previous year’s 5.3% increase. The overall expansion was driven by the booming industrial sector, largely due to an impressive jump in mining and quarrying output and a robust expansion in manufacturing. Furthermore, the construction, services and transportation sectors also rose at a healthy pace last year, reflecting broad-based growth. Meanwhile, after receiving sovereign credit ratings from S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings in December, Uzbekistan is poised to finally enter international debt markets in the first quarter of this year, with a USD 500 million bond issue reportedly in the works.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to remain robust this year, propped up by elevated public spending and solid investment activity growth amid ongoing reforms and improving investment climate. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 5.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2020.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)30.230.831.331.832.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,9202,0632,1302,1161,514
GDP per capita (EUR)1,4771,5071,9201,9041,322
GDP (USD bn)58.163.566.767.148.6
GDP (EUR bn)44.746.360.160.642.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.08.07.97.85.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.711.911.67.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.27.40.816.47.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.20.10.10.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.58.89.711.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.79.18.58.012.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0011.009.009.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,2022,4222,8113,2188,120
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0922,3082,5702,9655,123
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0342,9313,0523,3949,751
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,7803,0642,8523,2795,869
Current Account (% of GDP)2.81.7-0.51.42.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.61.1-0.40.91.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.4-6.9-4.3-2.4-  
Exports (USD billion)7.96.96.57.7-  
Imports (USD billion)13.313.811.811.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)35.1-13.1-4.818.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)16.73.8-21.5-6.6-  
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)18.421.022.324.3-  

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Uzbekistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate8,3950.0 %Feb 14

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