Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

The Uzbek economy expanded 5.3% in 2017, a substantial slowdown from 2016’s 7.8% increase and the slowest print since 2003. Growth in 2017 was weighed down by a softer expansion in construction, investment and agriculture, despite higher prices for cotton, a key export. In addition, retail trade expanded a soft 2.4% in 2017, a steep drop from the 14.4% expansion in 2016. The sharp moderation partly reflected the impact of the currency devaluation in early September, which had caused inflation to spike and real disposable income to drop. It also underscored the short-lived impact that many market-friendly reforms pushed ahead by the government to attract foreign investment are having on the economy.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to accelerate this year from 2017’s muted growth rate as prices for commodities trend higher. The implementation of market-friendly reforms, however, will constrain growth in the near term. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 6.2% in 2018, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.1% in 2019.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)29.730.230.631.031.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,7521,8902,0602,1532,145
GDP per capita (EUR)1,3811,4541,5041,9111,939
GDP (USD bn)52.157.263.066.767.2
GDP (EUR bn)41.144.046.060.160.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.28.08.18.17.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.011.511.56.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)26.26.93.56.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.40.30.20.10.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.67.78.89.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.911.79.18.58.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0012.0011.009.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9842,2022,4222,8113,218
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8892,0922,3082,5702,965
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2,6163,0342,9313,0523,394
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,4292,7803,0642,8523,279
Current Account (% of GDP)1.82.90.70.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.91.60.50.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.1-6.2-7.9-5.3-  
Exports (USD billion)5.97.96.96.5-  
Imports (USD billion)12.014.014.711.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)2.432.7-12.8-4.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)11.717.05.1-19.8-  
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)17.518.721.122.3-  

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Uzbekistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate8,1830.0 %Feb 22

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