Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

June 11, 2019

The economy is expected to have decelerated further in the first quarter, after annual growth fell to a near three-year low in Q4 2018 on slumping consumption and investment activity. Amid rising unemployment, elevated inflation and a gradually depreciating peso, private consumption appears to have remained sluggish in Q1. On the external front, metrics were also gloomy: Merchandise exports contracted in Q1 amid a still-frail regional environment and sustained fears over a global trade spat. Turning to the second quarter, incoming data has been mixed thus far: While exports of goods rebounded firmly in April, signaling a stronger external sector, an uptick in inflation and further depreciation of the peso suggest domestic demand was constrained at the beginning of Q2.

Uruguay Economic Growth

Growth will decelerate this year, against the backdrop of a weak external environment amid downturns in Argentina and Brazil, and feeble domestic demand conditions. Stagnant real wages, a weaker peso and still-high unemployment will curb household spending growth. Meanwhile, fiscal consolidation will be a priority for the next administration. Met the why particular analysts see growth at 1.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2020.

Uruguay Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.43.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)16,86016,79215,57514,94317,177
GDP (USD bn)57.557.253.352.460.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.63.20.41.52.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.53.0-0.50.14.4
Investment (annual variation in %)3.82.4-9.2-1.6-15.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.11.13.10.3-11.1
Unemployment Rate6.56.67.57.97.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-3.5-3.6-3.9-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)57.558.658.963.664.5
Money (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.58.39.48.16.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.68.98.79.66.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)7.357.176.946.585.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21.1324.3729.9129.3328.83
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.4123.2127.3130.1428.66
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.4-3.1-0.80.81.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.0-1.8-0.40.40.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.81.61.20.60.0
Exports (USD billion)9.19.17.77.07.9
Imports (USD billion)11.911.88.97.67.9
Exports (annual variation in %)4.10.7-15.9-8.912.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.2-1.2-17.4-14.03.5
International Reserves (USD)16.317.815.613.416.0
External Debt (% of GDP)65.070.480.276.664.5

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Uruguay Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate35.310.24 %Jun 13

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