UK Economic Forecast
April 30, 2018According to preliminary data, economic growth slowed to the weakest pace in over five years in the first quarter. The construction sector—which, like many sectors in the economy, was partly hit by adverse weather conditions—significantly weighed on growth in the quarter, posting the largest output contraction in nine years. The services sector provided some support, however, buttressed by the business services and finance sub-sector, as did industrial production, which benefitted from the Forties oil pipeline coming back online. Meanwhile, the labor market remained robust in the December–February period, with the unemployment rate ticking down. Moreover, in a positive development for financially-strained consumers, real wages rose, benefiting from the recent dip in inflation and higher nominal wages. On the political front, following the passage of a non-binding motion in the House of Commons on 26 April urging that the UK stays in a customs union with the EU, pressure is building on the prime minister to clearly outline the country’s future customs arrangement.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthThis year, the economy is seen losing momentum as private consumption growth slows and fixed investment is depressed by Brexit uncertainty. However, relatively loose monetary policy and robust export growth thanks to the weaker pound should cushion the slowdown. Our panelists estimate GDP growth of 1.5% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% again in 2019.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||1.47||-3.04 %||May 21|
|Exchange Rate||1.34||-0.35 %||May 21|
|Stock Market||7,859||-0.26 %||May 21|
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United Kingdom Economic News
May 25, 2018
The economy started 2018 on weak footing, with comprehensive data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 25 May putting quarter-on-quarter GDP growth at a mere 0.1% in Q1, unchanged from the preliminary estimate and marking the weakest reading since 2012.
May 23, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in April over the previous month, up from March’s 0.1% increase.
May 15, 2018
The unemployment rate remained at a multi-decade low of 4.2% in the January-March period, supported by a 197,000 surge in employment over the prior quarter—a figure far higher than analysts were expecting.
May 11, 2018
At its meeting ending on 9 May, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BoE) voted to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50%, although two of the nine members present opted for a rate hike.
May 11, 2018
Industrial production rose 0.1% in March over the prior month according to the Office for National Statistics, matching February’s figure but slightly undershooting analysts’ expectations.