UK Economic Forecast
January 30, 2018The economy picked up pace in the final quarter of 2017, according to preliminary data. Services—particularly business services and finance—and manufacturing powered growth, with manufacturing likely boosted by buoyant external demand. However, consumer-facing sectors were limp amid a continuing decline in real wages. This fits with a picture of weak retail sales data in Q4. In addition, December’s service PMI highlighted subdued business confidence and investment, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth in the sector going forward. More positively, the labor market was surprisingly robust in August–November; there was a surge in job creation compared to the prior quarter, and the unemployment rate remained at a multi-decade low. On the international front, on 29 January the EU approved its directives for the next phase of Brexit negotiations, allowing discussions on a transition agreement to begin in earnest.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthThis year the economy is likely to lose momentum as private consumption growth slows and fixed investment is curtailed by Brexit uncertainty. Public spending will provide little support, with the government intent on bearing down on the budget deficit. However, a robust global economy and still-loose monetary policy should buttress growth. Our panelists estimate GDP growth of 1.4% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.4% again in 2019.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||1.58||-3.04 %||Feb 20|
|Exchange Rate||1.11||-0.35 %||Feb 20|
|Stock Market||7,247||-0.26 %||Feb 20|
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United Kingdom Economic News
February 21, 2018
Jobless claims fell by 7,200 in January according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) compared to a revised 6,200 uptick in December (previously reported: +8,600) and defying analysts’ expectations of a rise in the claimant count.
February 13, 2018
Consumer prices fell 0.5% in January over the previous month, contrasting sharply with December’s 0.4% rise but coming in above analysts’ expectations of a 0.6% decline.
February 9, 2018
Industrial production fell 1.3% in December over the prior month according to the Office for National Statistics, contrasting November’s revised 0.3% uptick (previously reported: +0.4% month-on-month) and substantially undershooting analysts’ expectations.
February 8, 2018
At its meeting ending on 7 February, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BoE) voted unanimously to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50%.
February 5, 2018
Growth in the UK services sector decelerated in January, with the IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) decreasing from 54.2 in December to 53.0 in January, marking the lowest reading since September 2016.