UK Economic Forecast
March 26, 2019The economy appears to have grown meagerly in Q1 against a backdrop of heightened Brexit uncertainty, with the services and manufacturing PMIs hovering only slightly in expansionary territory in the first two months of the year amid soft new orders. More positively, in the three months to January employment surged, the unemployment rate dipped, and wage growth remained at a multi-year high. The strong labor market should have supported private consumption in Q1, as suggested by healthy retail sales growth in January and February. On the political front, the EU recently agreed to delay Brexit until 12 April, although there is still no clarity over the final outcome of the process. Earlier in March, the chancellor presented his Spring Statement, highlighting stronger-than-expected public finances and suggesting a looser fiscal stance if the UK leaves the EU with a deal.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthThe outlook for 2019 hinges on the outcome of Brexit; leaving the EU with a deal, or remaining in the EU, would likely unleash pent-up investment and boost consumer sentiment, while leaving with no deal could cause a serious economic shock. An extension to Article 50 would prolong uncertainty and thus continue to hamper investment. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 1.3% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists see the economy expanding 1.5%.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||1.21||-3.04 %||Apr 12|
|Exchange Rate||1.31||-0.35 %||Apr 12|
|Stock Market||7,437||-0.26 %||Apr 12|
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United Kingdom Economic News
April 17, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.2% in March over the previous month, down from February’s 0.5% increase.
April 16, 2019
In the December-February period, the unemployment rate remained at a multi-decade low of 3.9%, while the employment rate stayed at a joint-record high.
April 11, 2019
Industrial production rose 0.6% in February over the prior month according to the Office for National Statistics, following January’s revised 0.7% increase (previously reported: +0.6% month-on-month).
April 11, 2019
According to monthly GDP data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), economic activity rose 0.2% in February over the prior month in seasonally-adjusted terms, down from January’s 0.5% increase but above market expectations of a flat reading.
United Kingdom: Services PMI tumbles into contractionary territory in March; manufacturing firms continue stockpiling
April 3, 2019
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 51.3 in February to 48.9 in March, marking a multi-year low.