United Arab Emirates Economic Forecast

United Arab Emirates Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

The non-oil economy continues to purr along at the start of 2018. The non-oil PMI was well in positive territory in January thanks to greater output and new orders from home and abroad, while employment growth was the fastest in 12 months and wage growth picked up. On the downside, real wages are likely to come under pressure from higher inflation this year following the introduction of 5% VAT on 1 January. The hydrocarbon sector continues to be held back by OPEC oil production cuts, although the recent significant uptick in oil prices is good news for the already solid fiscal position. On the back of higher oil prices, the slew of 2018 budgets presented by different emirates and the federal government over the last few months are more fiscally expansionary, with Dubai’s budget containing a notable uptick in infrastructure spending as part of preparations for the 2020 World Expo.

United Arab Emirates Economic Growth

Growth should rise sharply this year, as higher oil prices support confidence and financial conditions. The non-oil sector will also benefit from capital spending on the Dubai 2020 World Expo, while a looser fiscal stance will provide further impetus. Downside risks stem from regional instability—particularly concerning the ongoing dispute with Qatar—and potential oil price volatility. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to rise 2.8% in 2018, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2019.

United Arab Emirates Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)8.89.09.39.69.9
GDP per capita (USD)41,68542,13642,33637,743-  
GDP (USD bn)365381394362-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.84.73.13.83.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)-18.9-1.625.3-13.111.7
Investment (annual variation in %)13.211.58.34.32.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)7.22.12.94.4-  
Unemployment Rate4.14.04.03.83.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)11.911.45.0-2.1-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.015.815.618.119.3
Money (annual variation in %)2.922.87.95.53.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.61.43.13.61.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.71.12.44.11.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.001.001.001.001.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.673.673.673.673.67
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.673.673.673.673.67
Current Account (% of GDP)21.819.514.94.72.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)79.774.158.717.011.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)14214112876.668.3
Exports (USD billion)360371368300299
Imports (USD billion)218230211224230
Exports (annual variation in %)19.13.1-0.9-12.4-0.6
Imports (annual variation in %)11.65.54.3-4.62.9
International Reserves (USD)47.068.278.493.985.4
External Debt (% of GDP)38.744.348.860.2-  

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United Arab Emirates Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate3.670.0 %Feb 20
Stock Market0.40.75 %Feb 19

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