Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

October 3, 2017

The recovery deteriorated further in Q2, after annual growth halved in Q1. The trade blockade with the eastern regions continued to dampen activity and, together with poor agricultural production, caused exports to plummet. Growth is expected to decelerate further in H2, and incoming data for Q3 has been mixed. On a positive note, the country had a successful return to capital markets in September, raising USD 3 billion through a 15-year Eurobond, the country’s first bond issue since 2015. The return illustrated investors’ reinvigorated confidence in the economy; however, there is a risk that the successful issue could reduce authorities’ resolve to comply with the IMF program. The government has been dragging its heels in pursuing mandated reforms, particularly to address corruption. While pension reform is expected to be passed, the bill has been severely watered down by amendments. Slow reform momentum is delaying the next tranche of IMF loans, and the government’s 2018 budget was drafted based on approval of the pension reform—meaning that the government cannot vote on the budget until the reform is passed.

Ukraine Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)45.445.242.842.642.5
GDP per capita (USD)3,8133,9783,0642,0662,165
GDP (USD bn)17318013188.092.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.20.0-6.6-9.82.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.46.9-8.3-20.71.8
Investment (annual variation in %)5.0-8.4-24.0-9.220.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.5-4.3-11.1-13.02.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)13.75.6-9.8-21.04.4
Unemployment Rate7.57.29.39.19.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-4.4-4.9-2.3-3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)36.739.969.479.181.0
Stock Market (annual variation in %)13.117.55.44.011.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.20.524.943.312.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.6-0.312.148.514.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.7-0.117.136.020.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.506.5014.0022.0014.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-38.5-8.628.8-37.811.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.058.2415.8224.0327.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.088.1512.0221.9525.56
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.2-9.2-3.4-0.2-4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-14.3-16.5-4.6-0.2-3.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-21.9-22.1-7.1-3.5-6.8
Exports (USD billion)64.459.150.635.433.6
Imports (USD billion)86.381.257.738.911.4
Exports (annual variation in %)3.3-8.3-14.5-29.9-5.2
Imports (annual variation in %)7.3-5.8-29.0-32.63.8
International Reserves (USD)24.620.47.513.315.5
External Debt (% of GDP)78.078.996.2135124

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Ukraine Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate26.52-0.28 %Oct 13
Stock Market297-0.02 %Oct 13

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Ukraine Economic Growth

October 3, 2017

The recovery is seen picking up pace next year, after weather woes and the economic blockade hold back growth in 2017. Met the why particular panelists see GDP rising 2.0% in 2017. In 2018, growth is expected to pick up to 2.8%, unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Ukraine Economic News

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