Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

The recovery is expected to have again slowed in the fourth quarter, capping off a year of moderating growth. Although booming wage growth and pension increases supported activity in the quarter, the economy is still feeling the effects of the trade blockade with rebel-held regions that began in Q1 2017. Industrial production contracted in December, and poor agricultural output dented the economy’s momentum in Q4. Overall, growth has been hampered by weak institutions, slow reform momentum and widening fiscal and current account deficits. Moreover, a lack of progress on reforms has been a stumbling block. Political willpower for tough IMF-mandated reforms is low and dissipating quickly in the runup to the 2019 elections. Aid from the institution has been delayed over a lack of progress on reforms. In January, the IMF warned the government that its plans for a new anti-corruption court—an IMF-mandated measure—do not meet its requirements. Ukraine has been criticised for taking a soft stance on fighting corruption and ensuring the independence of judges’ selection process.

Ukraine Economic Growth

Continued geopolitical concerns and the slow pace of reforms are weighing on Ukraine’s outlook. However, the fading effects of the trade blockade and recovering household consumption should fuel a moderate pick-up in growth this year. Met the why particular panelists see GDP rising 2.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, growth is expected to pick up to 3.1%.

Ukraine Economy Data

Population (million)45.445.242.842.642.5
GDP per capita (USD)3,8133,9783,0642,0662,165
GDP (USD bn)17318013188.092.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.20.0-6.6-9.82.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.46.9-8.3-20.71.8
Investment (annual variation in %)5.0-8.4-24.0-9.220.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.5-4.3-11.1-13.02.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)13.75.6-9.8-21.04.4
Unemployment Rate7.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-4.4-4.9-2.3-3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)36.739.969.479.181.0
Stock Market (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.20.524.943.312.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.6-0.312.148.514.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.7-
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.506.5014.0022.0014.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-38.5-8.628.8-37.811.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.058.2415.8224.0327.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.088.1512.0221.9525.56
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.2-9.2-3.4-0.2-4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-14.3-16.5-4.6-0.2-3.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-21.9-22.1-7.1-3.5-6.8
Exports (USD billion)64.459.150.635.433.6
Imports (USD billion)86.381.257.738.911.4
Exports (annual variation in %)3.3-8.3-14.5-29.9-5.2
Imports (annual variation in %)7.3-5.8-29.0-32.63.8
International Reserves (USD)24.620.47.513.315.5
External Debt (% of GDP)78.078.996.2135124

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Ukraine Facts

Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate27.050.30 %Feb 20
Stock Market3360.21 %Feb 20

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