Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

Available fourth-quarter metrics suggest growth momentum carried over into the last quarter of 2018. A sustained increase in wages and a strong hryvnia likely propped up private consumption growth in Q4; this was reflected in robust retail sales, which accelerated compared to the previous quarter and despite an uptick in inflation. In addition, export growth picked up pace in the fourth quarter, as booming demand from the EU and Asia more than offset softer demand from CIS countries. That said, industrial output contracted for the first time in three years in Q4, largely due to a slump in the manufacturing sector in December. Meanwhile, in the political arena, President Petro Poroshenko launched his re-election bid on 29 January, as the presidential elections scheduled for 31 March inch closer. Poroshenko is currently languishing in the polls, with opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko and Volodymyr Zelensky seemingly the frontrunners.

Ukraine Economic Growth

The economy is expected to slow this year, as tight monetary policy environment dents economic activity growth while upcoming significant public debt repayments will constrain public spending. The overall expansion should be spearheaded by robust private spending which will continue to benefit from rising real incomes due to higher wages and pensions, as well as growing remittances. The uncertainty surrounding presidential and parliamentary elections remains the key risk to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP growth of 2.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

Ukraine Economy Data

Population (million)45.242.842.642.442.3
GDP per capita (USD)3,9743,0582,0552,1752,678
GDP (USD bn)18013187.592.3113
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.0-6.6-
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.9-8.3-
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.4-24.0-9.220.418.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.3-11.1-
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.6-9.8-
Unemployment Rate7.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.3-4.5-1.6-2.3-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.969.479.180.971.8
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.524.943.312.413.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.312.148.514.914.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.5014.0022.0014.0014.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-8.628.8-37.811.218.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.2415.8224.0327.1128.16
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.1512.0221.9525.5626.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.2-3.51.8-1.5-1.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-16.5-4.61.6-1.3-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-22.1-7.1-3.5-6.8-9.4
Exports (USD billion)59.150.635.433.639.7
Imports (USD billion)81.257.738.911.449.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-8.3-14.5-29.9-5.218.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-29.0-32.63.821.5
International Reserves (USD)20.47.513.315.518.8
External Debt (% of GDP)79.096.4136124113

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Ukraine Facts

Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate27.260.30 %Feb 14
Stock Market5660.21 %Feb 14

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