Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

Last year’s moderate recovery, which followed the economy’s return to growth in 2016, appears to have been sustained in the first quarter. Growth was again likely driven by robust domestic demand. Retail sales continued to expand in Q1, signaling healthy private consumption growth, which was bolstered by sustained wage growth throughout the quarter. Despite slowing in the first quarter, industrial production appears to have gotten some support from buoyant, albeit also moderating, export growth. On the political front, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko stated on 2 May that the implementation of the country’s new anti-corruption court—a key condition set by the IMF for receiving fresh funds—had made progress, with the first cases expected to appear in front of the court in early 2019.

Ukraine Economic Growth

The economy is set to pick up pace this year on the back of recovering domestic demand and against the backdrop of fading effects from last year’s trade embargo, which weighed on industry. Nevertheless, growth will likely remain significantly dampened by ongoing geopolitical concerns and the slow implementation of key economic reforms, which could undermine anti-corruption efforts. Met the why particular panelists see GDP rising 3.0% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, growth is also seen at 3.0%.

Ukraine Economy Data

Population (million)45.242.842.642.542.4
GDP per capita (USD)3,9783,0642,0662,165-  
GDP (USD bn)18013188.092.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.0-6.6-9.82.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.9-8.3-20.71.8-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.4-24.0-9.220.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.3-11.1-13.02.8-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.6-9.8-21.04.4-  
Unemployment Rate7.  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.4-4.9-2.3-3.0-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.969.479.181.0-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.524.943.312.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.312.148.514.9-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.5014.0022.0014.00-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-8.628.8-37.811.2-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.2415.8224.0327.11-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.1512.0221.9525.56-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.2-3.4-0.2-4.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-16.5-4.6-0.2-3.8-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-22.1-7.1-3.5-6.8-  
Exports (USD billion)59.150.635.433.6-  
Imports (USD billion)81.257.738.911.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-8.3-14.5-29.9-5.2-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-29.0-32.63.8-  
International Reserves (USD)20.47.513.315.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)78.996.2135124-  

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Ukraine Facts

Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate26.090.30 %May 21
Stock Market4750.21 %May 21

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