Ukraine Economic Outlook
February 5, 2019Available fourth-quarter metrics suggest growth momentum carried over into the last quarter of 2018. A sustained increase in wages and a strong hryvnia likely propped up private consumption growth in Q4; this was reflected in robust retail sales, which accelerated compared to the previous quarter and despite an uptick in inflation. In addition, export growth picked up pace in the fourth quarter, as booming demand from the EU and Asia more than offset softer demand from CIS countries. That said, industrial output contracted for the first time in three years in Q4, largely due to a slump in the manufacturing sector in December. Meanwhile, in the political arena, President Petro Poroshenko launched his re-election bid on 29 January, as the presidential elections scheduled for 31 March inch closer. Poroshenko is currently languishing in the polls, with opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko and Volodymyr Zelensky seemingly the frontrunners.
Ukraine Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to slow this year, as tight monetary policy environment dents economic activity growth while upcoming significant public debt repayments will constrain public spending. The overall expansion should be spearheaded by robust private spending which will continue to benefit from rising real incomes due to higher wages and pensions, as well as growing remittances. The uncertainty surrounding presidential and parliamentary elections remains the key risk to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP growth of 2.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.
Ukraine Economy Data
5 years of Ukraine economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||27.26||0.30 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||566||0.21 %||Feb 14|
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Ukraine Economic News
February 14, 2019
According to preliminary data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on 14 February, the economy kicked into a higher gear at the end of 2018.
February 11, 2019
Consumer prices rose 1.0% month-on-month in January, ticking up slightly from December’s 0.8% increase.
January 31, 2019
At its 31 January meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) kept the key policy rate fixed at 18.00%, thus leaving it at a near three-year high.
January 25, 2019
According to data released by the Statistical Institute, industrial production fell 3.5% year-on-year in December, compared to a 0.9% drop November.
January 11, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.8% month-on-month in December, marking a four-month low (November: +1.7% month-on-month).