Ukraine Economic Outlook
October 30, 2018The economy seemingly shifted into a lower gear in the third quarter on the heels of a robust outturn in Q2. Industrial output decelerated sharply on average in Q3, amid a deteriorating manufacturing sector. Retail sales growth also lost steam, in part due to the hryvnia’s weakening against the U.S. dollar which weighed on purchasing power. On the external front, the available data is also downbeat: Average merchandise export growth in July–August came in below that of Q2 amid decelerating exports of chemicals and metals. Meanwhile, the government signed a new USD 3.9 billion agreement with the IMF on 19 October, breaking a prolonged deadlock over the resumption of the Fund´s financial support. The politically unpopular decision of raising household gas tariffs by 23.5% was a critical precondition for the deal. The agreement will shore up the government’s finances and should boost investor confidence, allowing Ukraine to once again issue dollar-denominated bonds to finance country’s debt.
Ukraine Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to moderate slightly next year; nevertheless, it should remain solid and is seen picking up pace again in 2020. Domestic demand will remain in the driver’s seat of the expansion, led by robust public and private investment activity. Furthermore, household consumption should remain strong amid tightening labor market conditions and lower inflation. Met the why particular panelists see GDP rising 2.9% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.
Ukraine Economy Data
5 years of Ukraine economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||27.79||0.30 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||608||0.21 %||Nov 15|
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Ukraine Economic News
November 9, 2018
Consumer prices rose 1.7% month-on-month in October, down slightly from September’s 1.9% increase.
October 30, 2018
On 19 October, Ukraine and the IMF reached an agreement for a new 14-month USD 3.9 billion Stand-By Arrangement (SBA).
October 25, 2018
At its 25 October meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to leave the key policy rate fixed at 18.00%.
October 22, 2018
According to data released by the Statistical Institute, industrial production dropped 1.3% year-on-year in September, deteriorating further from the previous month’s 0.5% fall.
October 11, 2018
Consumer prices rose 1.9% month-on-month in September, the sharpest rise since September 2017 (August: 0.0% mom).