Turkey Economic Forecast

Turkey Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

High inflation, elevated unemployment, pervasive consumer pessimism and currency weakness continued to ravage the economy, leading to a marked contraction in the first quarter. The economy’s tough spot was further highlighted by feeble business and consumer credit growth in Q1, as well as ongoing weakness in the important construction sector, chiefly due to the cheap lira. Moreover, second-quarter data suggests that the economy remains in a predicament: Consumer credit growth was still weak in April; operating conditions in the manufacturing sector deteriorated in the same month; and consumers remained dejected through May. Against this backdrop, domestic and international political pressure has risen in recent weeks due to the annulment of the Istanbul mayoral election result and the two-week ultimatum given to Turkey by the U.S. on 23 May to cancel the purchase of Russian missiles.

Turkey Economic Growth

The economy will likely contract this year due to collapsing domestic demand induced by high inflation, rising unemployment and a weak lira. However, the economy should begin to recover towards the end of the year as inflation softens, providing room for monetary policy easing. Lingering geopolitical tensions and currency volatility cloud the outlook, however. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to shrink 1.3% in 2019, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to expand 2.7% in 2020.

Turkey Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)76.777.778.779.880.8
GDP per capita (USD)12,38612,02611,89811,80511,536
GDP (USD bn)950934858862851
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.55.26.13.27.4
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)11.03.25.44.47.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.93.05.43.76.1
Investment (annual variation in %)13.85.19.32.27.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)7.25.75.83.48.9
Unemployment Rate9.111.011.311.911.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.0-1.1-1.0-1.1-1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.328.627.528.328.3
Money (annual variation in %)21.511.917.417.615.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.48.28.88.511.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.58.97.77.811.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.508.257.508.008.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.152.332.923.533.79
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.912.192.733.023.65
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.7-4.7-3.7-3.8-5.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-63.6-43.6-32.1-33.1-47.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-79.9-63.6-48.1-11.9-58.9
Exports (USD billion)162169152150166
Imports (USD billion)242233200191225
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.14.4-11.0-1.211.7
Imports (annual variation in %)6.3-3.8-13.9-4.517.8
International Reserves (USD)11111792.992.184.2
External Debt (% of GDP)41.343.346.647.353.2

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Turkey Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield17.36-0.09 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate5.87-0.85 %Jun 13
Stock Market90,5011.41 %Jun 13

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