Turkey Economic Outlook
November 28, 2017The tailwinds that boosted GDP growth in the first three quarters of the year are starting to fade, and the country’s structural imbalances are becoming more acute. Furthermore, the economy is showing signs of overheating: Inflation reached a nine-year high in October, and the cumulative current account deficit widened to a two-year high in September. The widening current account deficit has become increasingly difficult to finance, which has in turn resulted in a steady drawdown of foreign reserves since the start of the year. In addition to weakening economic fundamentals, the ongoing diplomatic spat between Turkey and the U.S., as well as President Erdogan’s renewed dispute with Central Bank officials, caused the lira to weaken to record lows and Turkey’s 11-year bond yields to tumble in late November.
Turkey Economic GrowthThe government’s attempt to limit policy stimulus next year ahead of the 2019 election cycle and an unfavorable base effect will lead GDP growth to moderate in 2018. The Met the why particular panel expects growth to come in at 3.5%, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. The risk of a sustained depreciation of the lira and unanchored inflation expectations are, however, weighing heavily on the outlook. Our panel expects growth of 3.7% in 2019.
Turkey Economy Data
5 years of Turkey economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.
|Bond Yield||11.68||-0.09 %||Dec 06|
|Exchange Rate||3.85||-0.85 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||115,304||1.41 %||Dec 06|
Start Your Free Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
Turkey Economic News
November 24, 2017
The Real Sector Confidence Index published by the Central Bank fell from 119.5 in October to 116.3 in November, marking the lowest reading in nine months as well as the second consecutive month of worsening sentiment.
Turkey: Turkish lira plummets to all-time low in late November on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
November 21, 2017
The Turkish lira (TRY) came under intense pressure in late November as political strain with the U.S. intensified and tensions between President Erdogan and Central Bank officials regarding the country’s monetary policy path going forward became more acute.
November 13, 2017
The current account balance recorded a USD 4.5 billion deficit in September, widening the gap from September 2016’s USD 1.6 billion shortfall.
November 8, 2017
The industrial sector closed the quarter on a solid note, with output recording its second-highest reading since October 2011 in September.
November 3, 2017
Consumer prices surprised to the upside in October, surging 2.08% from the previous month and coming in above the 1.7% increase expected by market analysts.