Turkey Economic Outlook
October 30, 2018Recent indicators show the economy screeching to a halt as the effects of the currency crisis continue to reverberate. In October, consumer and business confidence moved further into pessimistic territory and marked fresh multi-year lows, although the pace of the decline slowed. Moreover, automotive sales collapsed in Q3, while industrial production and retail sales growth slowed markedly in August. More positively, the lira has gained substantial ground in recent weeks, which should lessen corporates’ external debt burdens somewhat. The appreciation has come on the back of higher interest rates, the government’s commitment to a tighter fiscal stance in the New Economic Plan, and the release of a U.S. pastor in mid-October, which soothed geopolitical tensions with the U.S. Moreover, Turkey was able to raise USD 2 billion in international bond markets recently in an oversubscribed sale, marking an early sign of a gradual return of confidence in the economy.
Turkey Economic GrowthThe economy will perform poorly next year, weighed down by restrictive financial conditions constraining private consumption and fixed investment, and the government’s tighter fiscal stance. However, the external sector should provide some support. Further exchange rate volatility and the possibility of renewed geopolitical tensions pose significant downside risks. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 0.5% in 2019, down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2020.
Turkey Economy Data
5 years of Turkey economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||16.01||-0.09 %||Nov 15|
|Exchange Rate||5.35||-0.85 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||93,297||1.41 %||Nov 15|
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Turkey Economic News
November 12, 2018
The current account balance recorded a USD 1.8 billion surplus in September, down marginally from August’s revised USD 1.9 billion surplus (previously reported: USD 2.6 billion surplus) but still significantly improved from the USD 4.4 billion deficit observed in the same month last year.
November 5, 2018
Consumer prices rose 2.67% from the previous month in October, down from September’s 6.30% increase, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat).
November 1, 2018
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) and IHS Markit, increased from 42.7 in September to 44.3 in October.
October 26, 2018
The Real Sector Confidence Index published by the Central Bank declined from 89.6 in September to 87.6 in October, marking the seventh consecutive monthly decline and a fresh multi-year low.
October 25, 2018
At its monetary policy meeting on 25 October, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) left the one-week repo rate unchanged at 24.00%, as most market analysts had expected.