Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

After a mild slowdown in the third quarter due mainly to lower oil and chemical production, political gridlock and social unrest are clouding Tunisia’s economic prospects in Q4 and beyond. Amid dwindling foreign reserves, Prime Minister Youssef Chahed has been under significant pressure—notably from the IMF—to slash the country’s fiscal deficit, but is simultaneously facing widespread public protests against austerity and lacks a clear legislative majority. On 13 December, parliament rejected a proposal to raise the retirement age to curb social security spending. However, on 15 December Chahed secured USD 830 million of aid from Saudi Arabia, giving the country a short-term financial lifeline.

Tunisia Economic Growth

The country’s outlook appears increasingly challenging. Growing political fragmentation and instability; high inflation and unemployment causing social unrest; and large fiscal and current account deficits amid low foreign reserves all present downside risks to economic prospects. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 2.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

Tunisia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)11.911.011.111.411.5
GDP per capita (USD)4,2444,3233,8833,6613,483
GDP (USD bn)46.247.543.141.711.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.42.30.81.01.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.04.13.23.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.2-2.9-0.51.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.1-1.1-2.6-0.5-1.0
Unemployment Rate15.815.015.215.515.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-5.0-4.8-6.1-6.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.650.855.461.969.9
Money (annual variation in %)4.48.08.48.016.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.84.14.26.46.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.84.94.93.75.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.754.254.255.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.651.872.042.302.46
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.631.701.962.152.41
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.4-9.1-8.9-8.8-11.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.9-4.3-3.8-3.7-4.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.1-8.1-6.2-5.8-6.4
Exports (USD billion)16.716.914.113.314.2
Imports (USD billion)23.925.020.319.120.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.30.9-16.3-6.06.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.14.7-18.7-6.28.0
International Reserves (USD)7.77.67.46.05.7
External Debt (% of GDP)55.555.562.967.3-  

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Tunisia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.450.0 %Sep 15
Exchange Rate3.02-0.27 %Jan 30
Stock Market0.10.05 %Jan 29

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