Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

The economy slowed to a three-year low in Q1, after logging an already subdued performance in Q4. The print was only supported by the service sector, thanks largely to strong tourist inflows. On the other hand, agricultural output contracted, owing to a high base effect following last year’s exceptional harvest. The industrial sector also slumped, held back by a further sharp contraction in oil and gas extraction and a decline in several key manufacturing sectors—primarily foodstuff, mechanical and electrical products, and textile. Lastly, the nominal merchandise trade deficit widened year-on-year in the first four months of the year despite a sharper contraction of imports than exports, further weighing on already strained foreign reserves.

Tunisia Economic Growth

Growth will likely be meager this year, as efforts to resorb the country’s large current account and fiscal deficits and tame rampant inflation will weigh on activity. Low foreign reserves, high unemployment fueling political instability and unrest, and a slowdown in the Eurozone are the main downside risks to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 2.2% in 2019, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.

Tunisia Economy Data

Population (million)11.911.011.111.411.5
GDP per capita (USD)4,2444,3233,8833,6613,483
GDP (USD bn)46.247.543.141.711.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.2-2.9-0.51.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.1-1.1-2.6-0.5-1.0
Unemployment Rate15.815.015.215.515.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-5.0-4.8-6.1-6.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.650.855.461.969.9
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.754.254.255.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.651.872.042.302.46
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.631.701.962.152.41
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.4-9.1-8.9-8.8-11.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.9-4.3-3.8-3.7-4.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.1-8.1-6.2-5.8-6.4
Exports (USD billion)16.716.914.113.314.2
Imports (USD billion)23.925.020.319.120.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.30.9-16.3-6.06.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.14.7-18.7-6.28.0
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)55.555.562.967.3-  

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Tunisia Facts

Bond Yield7.160.0 %Dec 15
Exchange Rate2.96-0.27 %Jun 13
Stock Market0.10.05 %Jun 13

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