Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

January 15, 2019

The economy likely lost momentum in the third quarter, as natural gas production was depressed by maintenance at multiple facilities and a high base effect given that BP’s Juniper project became operational in August 2017. Methanol production faced similar challenges due to repair work, while crude oil production was soft. Looking to the fourth quarter, central bank data revealed a mixed start to the quarter as annual growth of LNG and natural gas production was elevated in October, while oil production contracted. In December, BP gave a green light to two natural gas projects, which should support growth in the medium-term.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Growth should tick down in 2019, buttressed by natural gas output and domestic consumption. However, vulnerability to fluctuations in energy prices and high household debt pose downside risks. Met the why particular panelists see growth of 1.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% again in 2020.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.31.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)19,61119,33217,32316,011-  
GDP (USD bn)26.426.223.621.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.7-0.6-0.6-2.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-13.6-0.98.9-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.94.6-31.5-  -  
Unemployment Rate3.73.33.43.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-2.6-1.7-5.3-8.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.246.350.958.861.6
Money (annual variation in %)8.813.1-1.43.2-2.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.68.51.53.11.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.25.74.73.11.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.753.254.754.754.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.416.376.426.716.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.416.396.366.636.74
Current Account (% of GDP)20.314.74.6-11.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.44.01.1-2.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.66.42.5-1.2-  
Exports (USD billion)17.615.011.18.2-  
Imports (USD billion)11.08.68.69.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)36.2-14.9-25.7-26.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.2-14.40.59.5-  
International Reserves (USD)11.211.59.99.58.4
External Debt (% of GDP)14.515.316.721.8-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.790.39 %Jan 30

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