Thailand Economic Outlook
April 16, 2019The outcome of the March general election remains uncertain with both the opposition alliance (PT) and the pro-junta bloc (PP) currently lacking the numbers needed to form coalitions and nominate a prime minister. However, the PP bloc is expected to secure enough seats to form a government after official election results are released on 9 May. Political uncertainty prior to, and after, the general elections is likely leaving its mark on the economy. Private consumption growth moderated noticeably in February while private investment fell in the same month, reflecting dampening domestic demand. Weakening demand in Thailand is also evidenced by the marked drop in imports in February. Manufacturing output, meanwhile, dropped at the steepest rate in over four years in February, while the average manufacturing PMI reading for Q1 suggested only a fractional improvement in operating conditions.
Thailand Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to grow at a more moderate pace this year despite robust public expenditure and fixed investment growth related to infrastructure projects. The ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and China remains a key downside risk to the outlook, while high household indebtedness could drag on household expenditure. Our panel expects the economy to expand 3.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% again in 2020.
Thailand Economy Data
5 years of Thailand economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.49||0.0 %||Apr 12|
|Exchange Rate||31.78||0.17 %||Apr 12|
|Stock Market||1,660||-1.41 %||Apr 12|
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Thailand Economic News
April 4, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.41% in March over the previous month (February: 0.24% month-on-month) due to higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages; housing and furnishing; and transport and communication. Inflation picked up to 1.2% in March, up from 0.7% in February and returning to the Central Bank’s 1.0%–4.0% target range.
March 28, 2019
Manufacturing output fell 1.6% year-on-year in February, contrasting the upwardly revised 0.6% expansion in January (previously reported: +0.2% year-on-year).
March 25, 2019
The external sector rebounded in February, with the trade balance swinging from a USD 4.0 billion deficit in January to a USD 4.0 billion surplus.
March 20, 2019
As expected by market analysts, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand stood pat at its 20 March meeting and kept the policy rate at 1.75% in a unanimous vote.
Thailand: Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha expected to hold on to power in first election since 2014
March 18, 2019
Thailand is scheduled to hold a general election on 24 March and the military is likely to maintain significant influence over politics following the vote.