Thailand Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019Following a moderation in the pace of growth in the third quarter of 2018, the economy should have accelerated in the final quarter on the back of rising private consumption. Indeed, in October–November, annual private consumption growth remained broadly unchanged from the multi-year high averaged in the second quarter. In less positive news, however, the trade balance likely fell into the red in the fourth quarter on weakening export growth amid global trade tensions and robust import growth reflective of firming domestic demand. Moreover, business confidence worsened in December, falling into pessimistic territory. Meanwhile, in the political arena, scheduled general elections were once again delayed—this time from 24 February to mid-March, due to supposed administrative difficulties. This impelled the first protesters to take to the streets since the military government outlawed such demonstrations following the 2014 coup d’état.
Thailand Economic GrowthAlthough economic growth is expected to moderate somewhat this year, it should nonetheless remain robust. Growth in fixed investment and public consumption is likely to pick up pace, while private consumption growth should remain solid. A possible flare up in the U.S.-China trade spat following the end to the temporary truce would dim prospects, while rising tensions leading up to the general election present a further downside risk. Our panel projects economic growth of 3.7% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2020.
Thailand Economy Data
5 years of Thailand economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.46||0.0 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||31.34||0.17 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||1,653||-1.41 %||Feb 14|
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Thailand Economic News
February 18, 2019
The Thai economy shifted into a higher gear in the fourth quarter of last year.
February 6, 2019
After raising the policy rate at the previous meeting on 19 December, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand stayed put at its 6 February meeting, keeping the rate at 1.75%.
February 4, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.02% over the previous month in January, a markedly softer drop than December’s 0.65% decrease.
January 31, 2019
Growth in manufacturing output inched down to 0.8% year-on-year in December from a revised 0.9% in November (previously reported: +1.0% year-on-year) but matched market expectations.
January 21, 2019
Thailand’s external sector logged a trade surplus of USD 1.1 billion in December, contrasting the USD 1.2 billion shortfall in November and markedly above the USD 220 million deficit of December 2017.