Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

September 19, 2017

Signs regarding the economic panorama are mixed. On the positive side, exports, supported by strong overseas demand, recorded double-digit growth rates in recent months and are set for their best performance in recent years for the year as a whole. Imports have also had a stellar year to date, reflecting a robust domestic economy. In addition, private consumption clocked its third consecutive month of growth in July, likely boosted by low inflation. However, the manufacturing PMI worsened in August on the back of a fall in output and new orders and signaled a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. In the political arena, the cabinet approved a new alcohol and tobacco tax law which came into effect in mid-September. The new tax is aimed at making tax collection more transparent but could dent private consumption.

Thailand Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)68.068.368.768.869.0
GDP per capita (USD)5,8456,1755,9255,7885,907
GDP (USD bn)397422117398117
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.22.70.92.93.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.70.90.92.23.1
Investment (annual variation in %)11.7-1.0-2.24.42.8
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)11.62.3-3.8-  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)19.0-0.3-6.00.13.0
Unemployment Rate0.50.60.60.70.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-2.2-2.0-2.4-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.242.242.643.941.2
Money (annual variation in %)13.03.91.35.74.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.61.70.6-0.91.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.02.21.9-0.90.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.00.30.1-  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.752.252.001.501.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)12.436.0-13.624.1-17.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)30.5832.7632.9236.0435.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)31.0430.6832.4434.2135.24
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.4-1.23.78.111.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.6-4.915.132.147.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.10.217.226.836.6
Exports (USD billion)228228227214214
Imports (USD billion)227228211187178
Exports (annual variation in %)2.50.3-0.6-5.90.4
Imports (annual variation in %)8.40.3-8.1-11.0-4.8
International Reserves (USD)182167157157172
External Debt (% of GDP)32.933.734.833.032.2

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Thailand Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.240.0 %Oct 12
Exchange Rate33.11-0.21 %Oct 12
Stock Market1,712-0.11 %Oct 12

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Thailand Economic Growth

September 19, 2017

Public investment and an ongoing recovery in the external sector are expected to spur growth. Risks, however, exist on the downside. Global economic uncertainty and a possible slowdown in Chinese demand could drag on exports, while high household debt clouds the mid-term outlook. Nonetheless, a strong external sector and fiscal buffers have made the country less vulnerable to shocks. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to grow 3.5% in both 2017 and 2018, both up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecasts.

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