Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

February 20, 2018

Recently released data indicated the economy grew at the fastest rate in five years in 2017, closing the year on a strong note despite slower growth in the final quarter. Growth was supported by a strong external sector throughout the year, and in Q4 the manufacturing sector also performed admirably. The external sector’s recovery was further boosted by robust tourism activity. The manufacturing PMI for January hinted at a positive start to 2018. It marked the second consecutive month in which the PMI remained in expansionary territory, and the highest reading in nearly a year. Business confidence strengthened as improving economic conditions and activity, as well as a recovery in private consumption, fed into an optimistic outlook.

Thailand Economic Growth

This year the economy will likely be supported by a rebound in fixed investment and government consumption ahead of elections scheduled for November. Private consumption should remain solid but will be weighed down by high levels of household debt. Export growth is expected to moderate due to a larger base effect. November’s elections could lead to social unrest and dent investor confidence. Elections have been postponed several times, leading to protests. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to grow 3.8% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast. The panel projects growth of 3.7% in 2019.

Thailand Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)68.068.368.768.869.0
GDP per capita (USD)5,8456,1755,9255,7885,907
GDP (USD bn)397422117398117
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.22.70.92.93.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.70.90.92.23.1
Investment (annual variation in %)11.7-1.0-2.24.42.8
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)11.62.3-3.8-  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)19.0-0.3-6.00.13.0
Unemployment Rate0.50.60.60.70.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-2.2-2.0-2.4-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.242.242.643.941.2
Money (annual variation in %)13.03.91.35.74.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.61.70.6-0.91.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.02.21.9-0.90.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.00.30.1-  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.752.252.001.501.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)12.436.0-13.624.1-17.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)30.5832.7632.9236.0435.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)31.0430.6832.4434.2135.24
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.4-1.23.78.111.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.6-4.915.132.147.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.10.217.226.836.6
Exports (USD billion)228228227214214
Imports (USD billion)227228211187178
Exports (annual variation in %)2.50.3-0.6-5.90.4
Imports (annual variation in %)8.40.3-8.1-11.0-4.8
International Reserves (USD)182167157157172
External Debt (% of GDP)32.933.734.833.032.2

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Thailand Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.440.0 %Feb 22
Exchange Rate31.560.17 %Feb 22
Stock Market1,789-1.41 %Feb 22

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