Thailand Economic Outlook
November 13, 2018Economic activity is expected to have moderated in the third quarter, following strong growth in H1. Momentum in the manufacturing sector ebbed somewhat, as demonstrated by the manufacturing PMI, which averaged slightly lower than the previous quarter. Moreover, the external sector appeared to soften, with the trade surplus narrowing to a four-year low on soft export growth and surging imports. In addition, the all-important tourism sector took a hit from the Phuket boat accident. More encouragingly, growth in private consumption accelerated in the third quarter on the back of still-muted inflationary pressures and improving non-farm incomes, while consumer and business confidence were solid. Looking at Q4, the picture remains mixed: Business confidence and the PMI fell below the crucial 50-point mark in October, while consumer confidence remained elevated. In early November, the government announced a series of measures to reignite the tourism sector, including visa fee waivers for citizens of some countries for two months.
Thailand Economic GrowthEconomic growth is expected to moderate next year on slower private consumption and export growth. However, private consumption will still be resilient, likely benefiting from rising income levels and a tight labor market, while fixed investment should pick up amid high capacity utilization. A further escalation in the U.S.–China trade spat and possible political uncertainty in the build-up to next year’s elections pose downside risks. The panel projects that the economy will grow 3.8% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2020.
Thailand Economy Data
5 years of Thailand economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.71||0.0 %||Nov 15|
|Exchange Rate||32.85||0.17 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||1,639||-1.41 %||Nov 15|
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Thailand Economic News
November 14, 2018
Hawkishness continues to grow among the members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand, despite leaving the one-day repurchase rate unchanged at 1.50%, where it has been for over three years.
November 5, 2018
Consumer prices inched up 0.06% over the previous month in October, down from the 0.29% price increase in September.
October 30, 2018
Manufacturing output contracted 2.6% year-on-year in September, contrasting a slightly revised 0.8% expansion in August (previously reported: +0.7% year-on-year) and below market expectations of a more moderate 0.5% drop.
October 24, 2018
Thailand recorded a USD 487 million trade surplus in September, contrasting August’s USD 588 million deficit but noticeably below the USD 3.4 billion surplus recorded in the same month a year earlier.
October 1, 2018
Thai consumer prices increased 0.29% over the previous month in September, up slightly from August’s 0.26% rise.