Taiwan Economic Forecast

Taiwan Economic Outlook

December 18, 2017

The economy continues to ride a strong cyclical upswing in electronic exports, driven by improved global trade flows and soaring foreign demand for tech products. GDP growth was confirmed at an over two-and-a-half-year high of 3.1% in Q3. The panorama remains equally upbeat in the fourth quarter, with the manufacturing PMI registering a six-year high in November and trade data showing stronger-than-expected shipments overseas in the same month. Both consumer and business sentiment also recorded their strongest results since late 2015, reaffirming upbeat economic prospects for the quarter. Meanwhile, the government scored a victory for its long-touted New Southbound Policy, which aims to reduce Taiwan’s dependence on mainland China. In early December, Taiwan and the Philippines inked an updated investment deal.

Taiwan Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to remain robust next year on higher real wages and the implementation of the government’s Forward-Looking Infrastructure Plan. A stronger domestic economy, however, will be offset by weaker momentum in the external sector, as a strong base effect and maturing economic cycles across several developed countries will likely lead to softer export growth. Met the why particular panelists forecast growth of 2.4% next year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. GDP growth is seen at 2.3% in 2019.

Taiwan Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)23.323.423.423.523.5
GDP per capita (USD)21,34421,89422,71622,54122,585
GDP (USD bn)498512532530532
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.12.24.00.71.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.82.33.42.72.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.65.32.11.62.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.30.76.4-1.81.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.51.32.50.70.6
Unemployment Rate4.24.24.03.83.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.5-0.8-0.80.1-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.133.832.831.631.9
Money (annual variation in %)3.55.86.15.83.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.60.30.60.11.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.90.81.2-0.31.4
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-1.2-2.4-0.6-8.9-3.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.881.881.881.631.38
Stock Market (annual variation in %)8.911.98.1-11.411.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)29.0529.8331.6332.8332.45
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.5729.6830.3131.7632.24
Current Account (% of GDP)8.911.011.614.213.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)44.451.361.975.272.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)29.133.438.248.149.8
Exports (USD billion)306311320285280
Imports (USD billion)277278282237231
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.11.62.8-11.9-1.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.70.21.4-15.8-2.8
International Reserves (USD)113417419426434
External Debt (% of GDP)26.333.233.430.032.4

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Taiwan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.961.28 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate30.010.07 %Dec 06
Stock Market11,3940.37 %Dec 06

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