Taiwan Economic Outlook
October 16, 2018The economy appears to have decelerated markedly in the third quarter, after growth reached a three-year high in the second quarter, notably due to a sharp loss of export momentum amid the US-China trade war. Export growth receded sharply in Q3 after reaching double-digits in Q2, and is thus poised to have weighed on the already weak investment momentum. Meanwhile, the PMI fell each month in Q3, and its average reading was the lowest since Q2 2016. On a more positive note, private consumption likely remained solid thanks to the tight labor market, while government spending is seen accelerating throughout H2 and beyond, given that only a third of the TWD 117 billion infrastructure package approved for 2018 had been disbursed as of the end of June. The FY19 budget proposal unveiled on 27 September also plans for increases in defense, education and economic development expenditures.
Taiwan Economic GrowthGrowth is seen moderating in 2019 and 2020 as the softening external sector should be superseded by domestic consumption as the main driver of the economy. Higher public spending should, however, continue to support activity, thanks to the recent approval of an additional TWD 228 billion infrastructure plan, with TWD 115.3 billion and TWD 122.2 billion allocated for 2019 and 2020, respectively. Main downside risks include the US-China trade dispute, increased migration of high-skilled workers and heightened diplomatic tensions with the Chinese mainland. Met the why particular panelists forecast GDP growth of 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.1% in 2020.
Taiwan Economy Data
5 years of Taiwan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.94||1.28 %||Oct 18|
|Exchange Rate||31.00||0.07 %||Oct 18|
|Stock Market||9,954||0.37 %||Oct 18|
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Taiwan Economic News
October 8, 2018
Merchandise exports grew 2.6% in annual terms in September, accelerating from the 1.9% expansion registered in August and significantly exceeding the predictions of analysts who had expected exports to contract 1.3%.
October 5, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.17% in September from the previous month, contrasting the 0.07% fall recorded in August.
October 1, 2018
The Taiwanese manufacturing sector slowed to a near standstill in September, continuing the downward trend observed since the beginning of the year.
September 27, 2018
Taiwan’s Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBRC) maintained course for the ninth consecutive quarter at its 27 September monetary policy meeting.
September 25, 2018
Industrial output growth expanded 1.3% year-on-year in August, slowing significantly from July’s upwardly revised 4.7% print (previously reported: +4.4% year-on-year). The weak August print came on the back of slowing manufacturing output—which represents more than 90% of total industrial production—as well as a steeper contraction in electricity and gas supply, mining, and water production.