Taiwan Economic Forecast

Taiwan Economic Outlook

March 20, 2018

The stellar growth momentum observed in the fourth quarter seems to have continued into the first months of 2018, buoyed by a robust external sector. Exports expanded strongly in the January–February period, while the PMI remained near its seven-year high in February. Importantly, new export orders grew at an almost one-year high in January, suggesting that the strong trend in export growth will continue in the months ahead, which, in turn, will buttress the employment outlook. Moreover, advances in next-generation semiconductor technology and supportive government policies are expected to propel investment from chip manufacturers. However, the United States’ recent decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum risks disrupting this momentum by sparking concerns of a global trade war.

Taiwan Economic Growth

A maturing global business cycle should soften export growth this year, but domestic demand should pick up the external sector’s slack, buttressed by planned hikes in the minimum wage and public sector salaries. Met the why particular panelists forecast GDP growth of 2.6% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. GDP growth is seen at 2.3% in 2019.

Taiwan Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)23.323.4-  -  -  
GDP per capita (USD)21,34421,894-  -  -  
GDP (USD bn)498512-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.12.2-  -  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.82.3-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.65.3-  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.30.7-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.51.3-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate4.24.2-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.5-0.8-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.133.8-  -  -  
Money (annual variation in %)3.55.8-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.60.3-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.90.8-  -  -  
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-1.2-2.4-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.881.88-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)8.911.9-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)29.0529.83-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.5729.68-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)8.911.0-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)44.451.3-  -  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)29.133.4-  -  -  
Exports (USD billion)306311-  -  -  
Imports (USD billion)277278-  -  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.11.6-  -  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.70.2-  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)113417-  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)26.333.2-  -  -  

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Taiwan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.031.28 %Apr 20
Exchange Rate29.470.07 %Apr 20
Stock Market11,7790.37 %Apr 20

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