Taiwan Economic Outlook
June 19, 2018Economic growth momentum likely moderated slightly in Q2 from Q1’s solid performance, due to a cyclical downturn in external demand affecting manufacturing output. In May, the manufacturing PMI reached an 11-month low as new orders slowed, dampening business confidence and employment growth. Trade data for Q2 shows a mixed trend so far, with cyclically weak global demand for smartphones and computers but otherwise robust dynamics, especially for electronics. Nevertheless, private consumption should remain strong as wage growth accelerates, compensating somewhat for external demand weaknesses. Heading into Q3, the external sector could benefit from accelerating U.S. growth, but remains vulnerable to an escalation of the U.S.-China trade dispute.
Taiwan Economic GrowthDomestic dynamics should lead growth this year, driven by robust household spending thanks to a tight labor market. Momentum in the external sector will likely moderate, however. A main downside risk is the escalation of the trade feud between China and the U.S., as electronic products—Taiwan’s flagship export—have been a point of contention in the dispute and are heavily integrated into both countries’ supply chains. Another major risk would be a spike in cross-strait tensions, given Taiwan’s dependence on China as its main export market. Earlier this year, China ramped up its efforts to attract qualified Taiwanese workers, which could accelerate the outflow of talent the country has been facing for years. Met the why particular panelists forecast GDP growth of 2.6% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. GDP growth is seen at 2.4% in 2019.
Taiwan Economy Data
5 years of Taiwan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.87||1.28 %||Jul 13|
|Exchange Rate||30.58||0.07 %||Jul 13|
|Stock Market||11,865||0.37 %||Jul 13|
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Taiwan Economic News
July 9, 2018
Merchandise exports grew 9.4% over the previous year in June, slowing from the 14.2% expansion recorded in May and below market expectations of an 11.4% increase.
July 5, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.43% in June from the previous month, contrasting the 0.25% decrease recorded in May.
July 2, 2018
The Taiwanese manufacturing sector regained some steam in June after four months of deceleration.
June 25, 2018
Industrial output expanded 7.1% over the previous year in May, easing from April’s upwardly revised 8.8% increase (previously reported: +8.5% year-on-year). Manufacturing output—which represents more than 90% of total industrial production—drove the reading in May, expanding 7.2% in annual terms (April: +9.4% year-on-year, previously reported: +9.1% yoy).
Taiwan: Central Bank holds firm on rates in June, upgrades 2018 growth outlook despite increasing global uncertainty
June 21, 2018
Taiwan’s Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBRC) stood pat for the eighth consecutive quarter at its 21 June monetary policy meeting.