Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

January 29, 2019

Following a dismal quarter-on-quarter performance in the third quarter, the economy should have recovered, albeit modestly, at the end of 2018. Exports likely rebounded after dragging on growth in Q3, with weakness in the region appearing to have dissipated slightly. Moreover, unemployment remains very low by historical standards and should have supported household spending. Nevertheless, softer dynamics likely persisted. The manufacturing PMI remained weaker than results posted earlier in 2018 in December, while December’s KOF economic barometer signaled expectations of below-average growth in the short-term. Turning to political developments, the EU-proposed institutional framework agreement designed to closer align Swiss law with EU regulations is currently undergoing a Swiss public consultation. Several politicians, including President Maurer, have commented that the accord is unlikely to win a majority or pass a vote; however, the EU is not expected to make any further concessions on the deal or reopen negotiations.

Switzerland Economic Growth

Growth prospects for 2019 are expected to be milder, although private consumption should pick up. The trade-reliant economy faces headwinds of slower growth in key trading partners and the region at large, while persisting uncertainty surrounding a possible hard Brexit and US-China tensions is a forefront risk to the outlook. Moreover, a more cautious outlook could weigh on business sentiment and investment. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 1.6% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and to also expand 1.6% in 2020.

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Switzerland Facts

Bond Yield-0.296.27 %Jan 30
Exchange Rate0.99-0.54 %Jan 30
Stock Market8,966-0.82 %Jan 30

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