Switzerland Economic Outlook
January 29, 2019Following a dismal quarter-on-quarter performance in the third quarter, the economy should have recovered, albeit modestly, at the end of 2018. Exports likely rebounded after dragging on growth in Q3, with weakness in the region appearing to have dissipated slightly. Moreover, unemployment remains very low by historical standards and should have supported household spending. Nevertheless, softer dynamics likely persisted. The manufacturing PMI remained weaker than results posted earlier in 2018 in December, while December’s KOF economic barometer signaled expectations of below-average growth in the short-term. Turning to political developments, the EU-proposed institutional framework agreement designed to closer align Swiss law with EU regulations is currently undergoing a Swiss public consultation. Several politicians, including President Maurer, have commented that the accord is unlikely to win a majority or pass a vote; however, the EU is not expected to make any further concessions on the deal or reopen negotiations.
Switzerland Economic GrowthGrowth prospects for 2019 are expected to be milder, although private consumption should pick up. The trade-reliant economy faces headwinds of slower growth in key trading partners and the region at large, while persisting uncertainty surrounding a possible hard Brexit and US-China tensions is a forefront risk to the outlook. Moreover, a more cautious outlook could weigh on business sentiment and investment. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 1.6% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and to also expand 1.6% in 2020.
Switzerland Economy Data
5 years of Switzerland economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||-0.34||6.27 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||1.00||-0.54 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||9,143||-0.82 %||Feb 14|
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Switzerland Economic News
February 11, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.3% over the prior month in January, matching the decrease registered in December.
February 1, 2019
According to the Swiss Federal Statistics Office, calendar-adjusted real retail sales fell 0.3% over the same month of the previous year in December, following the revised 0.6% dip recorded in November (previously reported: -0.5% year-on-year).
Switzerland: Consumer sentiment improves slightly in the November-January period, despite households’ shift to a pessimistic view of the economic situation
February 1, 2019
Consumer sentiment among Swiss households improved in the November–January period, with the index prepared by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) rising to minus 4 points from minus 6 points in August-to-October.
February 1, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by Credit Suisse and procure.ch fell to 54.3 points in January from a revised 57.5 points in December (previously reported: 57.8 points), coming in slightly below the index’s long-term average of 55.0 points.
January 30, 2019
The KOF economic barometer—a leading composite indicator for the Swiss economy forecasting a six-month period—continued to slump at the start of the year, falling to 95.0 points in January from a revised 96.4 points in December (previously reported: 96.3 points).