Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

November 21, 2017

Prospects for upbeat GDP growth in the second half of the year remain bright, given strong leading data from the domestic sector. In Q3, unemployment hit a two-year low and business confidence climbed to an over two-year high. Moreover, consumer confidence bordered on optimism in both Q3 and Q4; optimism among consumers has been rare for Switzerland in recent years. That said, retail sales fell for a second straight month in September, although the decline moderated from August. Additional survey data was also upbeat; economic sentiment hit a seven-year high in October on thriving manufacturing and banking sectors, with activity in the former confirmed by a six-year high PMI reading. Furthermore, although exports contracted in Q3, robust external demand and the recent depreciation of the franc are likely to set the stage for stronger growth in the external sector before year’s end.

Switzerland Economic Growth

Healthy global demand and a weaker franc are expected to support the external sector’s recovery and prompt improved business investment next year. Upbeat economic sentiment bodes well for an uptick in household spending, and a tight labor market hints at faster wage growth. Furthermore, economic activity is expected to get a lift next year from the 2018 Winter Olympics and 2018 World Cup, as their respective governing bodies are headquartered in Switzerland. On the downside, uncertainty over the direction of tax reform will continue clouding the outlook. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 1.8% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage point from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2019.

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Switzerland Facts

Bond Yield-0.176.27 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate0.99-0.54 %Dec 06
Stock Market9,311-0.82 %Dec 06

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