Sweden Economic Forecast

Sweden Economic Outlook

November 21, 2017

The economy remains in sturdy shape heading towards the end of the year, after a robust performance in Q2 thanks to strong expansions in private consumption and fixed investment. Industrial production rebounded in September after two consecutive monthly declines, while the economic sentiment indicator continued to indicate above-normal growth in October thanks to greater optimism in the building and civil engineering, retail trade and private service sectors. In addition, retail sales were strong in Q3, likely aided by low unemployment. However, the flipside of the tight labor market is the increasing prevalence of labor shortages and long recruitment times. Another more pressing concern is high and rising household debt linked to a surge in house prices in recent years, and a banking sector highly exposed to real estate. With interest rates set to remain low for some time to come, the Central Bank recently called for further macroprudential measures to cool the market and slow the build-up of debt.

Sweden Economic Growth

Growth should be brisk in 2018, despite dipping somewhat compared to the high rates recorded in recent years. The economy will be supported by the further tightening of the labor market, expansionary fiscal policy and solid fixed investment. However, high household debt will continue to cast a shadow over the economy. Met the why particular panelists see GDP rising 2.7% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2019.

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Sweden Facts

Bond Yield0.66-4.79 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate8.43-0.20 %Dec 06
Stock Market1,5950.14 %Dec 06

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