Sweden Economic Forecast

Sweden Economic Outlook

July 24, 2018

The economy likely lost some steam in the second quarter, although fundamentals are still healthy. Both the services and manufacturing PMIs averaged lower in Q2 relative to Q1, despite remaining well in positive territory, while annual growth in industrial production also shifted into a lower gear in April and May following a stellar first quarter. The economic tendency indicator paints a similar picture; readings are below the highs seen at the end of 2017, but still point to robust economic activity. Furthermore, the labor market is firm, with the smoothed unemployment rate at a multi-year low and strong employment gains in April and May. However, consumer confidence dropped to a near two-year low in June, likely influenced by recent softness in the housing market. Property prices resumed their month-on-month decline in the same month following a brief rebound, and were down over 4% in annual terms.

Sweden Economic Growth

Looking ahead, growth should be brisk, supported by strong exports, fixed investment, and a more expansionary fiscal stance. In addition, higher wages should aid private consumption, despite more pessimistic consumer sentiment. However, weaker housing investment will likely dampen activity, while elevated household debt poses a downside risk. Met the why particular panelists see GDP rising 2.6% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.1% in 2019.

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Sweden Facts

Bond Yield0.48-4.79 %Aug 15
Exchange Rate9.21-0.20 %Aug 15
Stock Market1,5940.14 %Aug 15

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