Sweden Economic Forecast

Sweden Economic Outlook

March 26, 2019

The economy has likely expanded at a moderate pace in Q1 2019. January and February PMI readings for the services and manufacturing sectors suggest modest growth, with both indicators tracking notably lower than their Q4 2018 averages. The economic tendency indicator tells a similar story, remaining slightly above neutral territory in February but still down markedly since Q3. Moreover, industrial production was soft in January. However, the labor market continues to perform well, with the unemployment rate in smoothed and seasonally adjusted terms currently at a multi-year low. This comes after a better-than-expected fourth quarter GDP reading, which was largely driven by a rebound in private consumption and a strong external sector, despite weakness among key EU trading partners.

Sweden Economic Growth

The economy is likely to lose substantial steam this year amid weaker growth in the Eurozone and soft housing investment. However, the robust labor market and mild inflation should buoy private consumption, while government spending should benefit from a more expansionary fiscal stance. Elevated household debt, meanwhile, poses a downside risk to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP rising 1.7% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2020.

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Sweden Facts

Bond Yield0.27-4.79 %Apr 12
Exchange Rate9.27-0.20 %Apr 12
Stock Market1,6410.14 %Apr 12

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