Sweden Economic Forecast

Sweden Economic Outlook

January 30, 2018

The economy continues to look strong. Industrial production figures were solid in October and November, the manufacturing PMI ended 2017 at a historically high level and business sentiment in January was firmly in positive territory despite dipping slightly, with broad-based optimism across sectors. Firms’ rosy outlook is bolstering the labor market, which in Q4 saw sustained job creation and the unemployment rate reach its lowest level since 2008. This comes after GDP growth in the third quarter was substantially above the EU average on the back of surging fixed investment. However, the housing market has weakened in recent months, with prices continuing to fall in December on the back of greater supply. This could negatively impact private consumption and residential investment, although high savings rates, low unemployment and strong growth in other areas of the economy should cushion any downturn.

Sweden Economic Growth

Growth will likely be robust in 2018, despite dipping slightly from the high rates recorded in recent years. The economy will be supported by a further tightening of the labor market, more expansionary fiscal policy and healthy fixed investment. Downside risks stem from high household debt and worries regarding the housing market. Met the why particular panelists see GDP rising 2.7% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2019.

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Sweden Facts

Bond Yield0.86-4.79 %Feb 22
Exchange Rate8.12-0.20 %Feb 22
Stock Market1,5740.14 %Feb 22

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