Spain Economic Forecast

Spain Economic Outlook

March 27, 2018

Comprehensive GDP data confirmed the economy’s robust performance in the final quarter of last year, dispelling concerns of a severe slowdown caused by Catalonia-induced uncertainty. Discretionary household spending benefitted from solid labor conditions and low borrowing costs. Likewise, leading indicators point to a healthy first-quarter outturn. Social Security affiliations—a proxy for employment growth—were upbeat in February after a positive January reading, while the February PMI showed a broad-based improvement in business conditions amid waning political uncertainty. Indeed, noise linked to Catalonia’s attempt at gaining independence has waned in recent months, although the sides are far from reaching a long-term solution. Meanwhile, Spain’s minority government plans to approve the 2018 draft budget on 27 March and submit it to congress a week later, where it still lacks sufficient cross-party support. Approval of the budget had been previously postponed due to backlash from the government’s heavy-handed response to the situation in Catalonia.

Spain Economic Growth

A positive outlook for the economy should fuel resilient fixed investment growth, while continued employment gains, accommodative monetary conditions and relatively subdued inflationary pressures should buttress private consumption. The external outlook is similarly encouraging, with healthy global trade flows and higher competitiveness supporting overseas shipments. Catalonia’s protracted conflict, however, remains a source of concern. Our panel sees growth at 2.7% this year, unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2019, our panelists foresee growth of 2.3%.

Spain Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)46.846.6-  -  -  
Population (million)46.846.6-  -  -  
GDP per capita (EUR)22,23322,013-  -  -  
GDP per capita (EUR)22,23322,013-  -  -  
GDP (EUR bn)1,0111,026-  -  -  
GDP (EUR bn)1,0111,026-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-2.9-1.7-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-2.9-1.7-  -  -  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-5.1-3.2-  -  -  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-5.1-3.2-  -  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-3.6-3.2-  -  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-3.6-3.2-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.6-3.4-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.6-3.4-  -  -  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)1.14.3-  -  -  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)1.14.3-  -  -  
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)-6.4-0.5-  -  -  
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)-6.4-0.5-  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-6.6-1.5-  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-6.6-1.5-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-7.0-3.9-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-7.0-3.9-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate24.826.1-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate24.826.1-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.5-7.0-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-11.5-7.0-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)85.795.5-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)85.795.5-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)3.00.3-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)3.00.3-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)2.41.5-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)2.41.5-  -  -  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.80.6-  -  -  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.80.6-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.25-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.25-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-4.721.4-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-4.721.4-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.321.38-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.321.38-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.291.33-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.291.33-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.21.5-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.21.5-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.415.6-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.415.6-  -  -  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-31.0-16.0-  -  -  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-31.0-16.0-  -  -  

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Spain Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.225.62 %Apr 19
Bond Yield1.225.62 %Apr 19
Exchange Rate1.230.65 %Apr 20
Exchange Rate1.230.65 %Apr 20
Stock Market9,884-0.74 %Apr 20
Stock Market9,884-0.74 %Apr 20

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