Spain Economic Outlook
December 22, 2017The economy has stood its ground in the fourth quarter, despite heightened uncertainty linked to the political environment in Catalonia. Incoming data shows that the negative economic impact stemming from the crisis has been limited to the region, with growth momentum largely intact in the wider Spanish economy. In November, employment growth as measured by Social Security affiliations remained buoyant, the Economic Sentiment Indicator reached its highest print in nearly two years and the composite PMI inched up on upbeat operating conditions among manufacturers. Despite the resilient economic picture, the political impasse is unlikely to be resolved soon, following snap elections in Catalonia on 21 December. The vote yielded a similar result than in the previous election in 2015, with the three secessionist parties obtaining a narrow majority in the regional parliament. The results are bruising for the Spanish government, which had called the early election in the hopes of depriving the secessionists of their ruling majority. Heightened uncertainty in Catalonia is expected to weigh on the region’s performance, which could eventually act as a drag on the aggregate Spanish economy.
Spain Economic GrowthAlthough economic momentum has proven resilient, an extension of political uncertainty into 2018 will continue to weigh on Spain’s economic forecasts. Political tensions aside, the domestic economy is expected to lose some steam next year on slower employment growth, decreased support from fiscal and monetary policy and higher oil prices. The Met the why particular panel sees growth at 2.6% next year, unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2019, our panelists see the pace of economic expansion slowing further to 2.3%.
Spain Economy Data
5 years of Spain economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||1.37||5.62 %||Dec 06|
|Exchange Rate||1.18||0.65 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||11,184||-0.74 %||Dec 06|
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Spain Economic News
December 28, 2017
Consumption dynamics in Spain improved in November following a bleak October performance, when uncertainty surrounding the Catalan referendum for independence on 1 October weighed on household spending.
December 5, 2017
In October, industrial production continued to benefit from healthy operating conditions in the manufacturing sector and increased competitiveness among export-oriented firms.
December 5, 2017
A third month into the political row that saw the Catalan government pushing unilaterally for independence and Spanish authorities taking over Catalan institutions, the effects on the Spanish economy are starting to become more discernible.
November 30, 2017
The current account surplus shrank for a second consecutive month in September, from a surplus of EUR 2.6 billion in August to EUR 2.4 billion.
November 30, 2017
The economy continued to perform robustly in the third quarter, with stronger dynamics in the domestic sector offsetting stagnant growth in the external sector.