South Africa Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019Third-quarter growth topped analysts’ estimates, blunting a short-lived technical recession amid the build-up of inventories. In demand-side terms, household spending staged a comeback on the heels of last year’s value-added tax hike. Fixed investment languished, however, as debt-burdened firms held off amid heightened economic uncertainty. Moreover, net exports restrained growth owing to a pick-up in imports. A supply-side look at the fourth quarter suggests the economic recovery persisted through the end of the year; manufacturing- and retail-sector activity has been picking up since October. On top of that, survey-based data through December hints at a slight improvement in economic sentiment. With little room to maneuver fiscally, Cyril Ramaphosa’s growth-supportive reforms continue to underpin economic prospects. However, they are expected to face hurdles over the coming months in the run-up to this year’s general election.
South Africa Economic GrowthHigher real wages and Ramaphosa’s last-ditch fiscal stimulus are expected to lift economic sentiment ahead of this year’s elections, stoking household spending and fixed investment, respectively. As such, Met the why particular analysts expect the economy to bounce back somewhat this year. Key downside risks remain, however. Of particular concern, a credit-rating downgrade by Moody’s would trigger large-scale capital outflows and undermine any short-term recovery. Moreover, a Chinese slowdown would bruise economic activity. Medium-term growth prospects are being held back by concerns over fiscal slippage and the inadequate pace of structural reforms. Analysts expect growth of 1.6% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020.
South Africa Economy Data
5 years of South Africa economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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South Africa Facts
|Bond Yield||8.74||0.29 %||Jan 30|
|Exchange Rate||13.58||-0.21 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||0.6||-0.44 %||Jan 30|
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South Africa Economic News
April 17, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.8% from a month earlier in March, matching February’s 0.8% increase.
South Africa: Ramaphosa’s economic reforms, majority for the ANC expected to survive general elections
April 12, 2019
Cyril Ramaphosa’s presidency and his promised “new dawn”, which hinges on the further implementation of sorely-needed economic reforms, will be on the ballot when South Africans head to the polls on 8 May.
April 11, 2019
A preliminary estimate revealed little improvement for the manufacturing sector in February.
April 3, 2019
In March, the Standard Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slid 0.4 points to 48.8 points, landing below the 50-point threshold that distinguishes improvement from deterioration in the South African private sector. March’s downturn largely reflected a decline in output and new orders.
March 28, 2019
At its meeting ending 28 March, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.75%.