South Africa Economic Forecast

South Africa Economic Outlook

April 24, 2018

On 23 March, Moody’s confirmed South Africa’s BBB rating and upgraded its outlook from negative to stable. The highly anticipated decision averted a credit downgrade to sub-investment grade, which would have put considerable pressure on the country’s high debt burden. The critical assurance that a credit rating is no longer imminent paves the way for a sustained recovery in business and consumer confidence, giving Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration room to implement market-friendly policies to bring investment into an economy that is slowly gaining traction. In February, manufacturing output expanded for the fifth consecutive month, and growth in retail sales accelerated in part due to a stronger currency. The manufacturing PMI remained positive in March, expanding for the second straight month following a string of uninterrupted contractions since August 2017.

South Africa Economic Growth

The country’s economic outlook has improved notably since Cyril Ramaphosa was sworn in as president in February and a credit rating downgrade by Moody’s was averted. Nevertheless, the implementation of economic reforms is necessary to foster faster growth and sustain the ongoing recovery. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to grow 1.9% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2019.

South Africa Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)53.254.155.055.956.8
GDP per capita (USD)6,7046,6216,0655,299-  
GDP (USD bn)357358334296-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.51.71.30.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.00.71.70.8-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.21.72.3-3.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.30.10.00.7-  
Unemployment Rate24.725.125.426.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-3.7-3.6-3.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.147.049.351.7-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.45.35.36.8-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.86.14.66.3-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.005.756.257.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)11.4711.5715.5013.68-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)9.6511.8512.7814.70-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.9-5.3-4.4-3.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-21.0-19.0-14.7-9.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.0-7.7-4.21.7-  
Exports (USD billion)93.694.185.576.8-  
Imports (USD billion)11111289.675.2-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-6.30.6-9.2-11.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.81.3-12.0-16.1-  
International Reserves (USD)44.844.341.842.7-  
External Debt (% of GDP)38.311.537.248.2-  

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South Africa Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield8.470.29 %May 16
Exchange Rate12.47-0.21 %May 16
Stock Market0.1-0.44 %May 16

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