South Africa Economic Outlook
November 13, 2018Although available data suggests the economy remained in the doldrums in the third quarter, analysts expect it to have exited this year’s short-lived recession amid the government’s loudly-touted efforts to stimulate activity. Any anticipated recovery through the remainder of the year will require demand-side improvement, which appears to have come up short thus far; unemployment ticked ever higher in the third quarter, while a further retreat in business confidence is likely to have weighed on investment. External-sector metrics were even less encouraging, with export growth in annual terms at its weakest in a year. More bad news came in the delivery of the midterm budget on 24 October, when newly-appointed Finance Minister Tito Mboweni presented a bleak fiscal outlook haunted by weak growth prospects and rising debt-servicing costs—but sought to reassure spooked investors with President Cyril Ramaphosa’s promised fiscal stimulus. In response, all three credit-rating agencies issued concerns over the inadequate pace of fiscal consolidation.
South Africa Economic GrowthDespite tepid near-term growth prospects, Met the why particular analysts expect the economy to emerge from recession by year-end before bouncing back somewhat next year. Last-ditch fiscal stimulus is likely to lift economic sentiment ahead of next year’s elections and should serve to stoke household spending and fixed investment. Amid worsening economic and political anxieties, however, the possibility of additional credit-rating downgrades will remain a key downside risk. Medium-term growth prospects are being weighed down by concerns over fiscal slippage and the inadequate pace of structural reforms. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 1.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.1% in 2020.
South Africa Economy Data
5 years of South Africa economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.
South Africa Facts
|Bond Yield||9.18||0.29 %||Nov 15|
|Exchange Rate||14.28||-0.21 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||0.7||-0.44 %||Nov 15|
Start Your Free Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
South Africa Economic News
November 9, 2018
A preliminary estimate showed that the manufacturing sector tapped the brakes in September.
November 5, 2018
In October, the Standard Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined 1.1 points to 46.9 points, falling further below the 50-point threshold that distinguishes deterioration from improvement in the South African private sector. October’s reading was the worst in more than four years and reflected sharp declines in output and new orders as export demand continued to falter.
September 20, 2018
At its meeting ending 20 September, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.50%.
September 11, 2018
A preliminary estimate showed that the manufacturing sector picked up steam in July.
September 5, 2018
In August, the Standard Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) plummeted 2.1 points to 47.2 points, retreating further from the 50.0-point threshold that distinguishes deterioration from improvement in the South African business environment.