South Africa Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019Third-quarter growth topped analysts’ estimates, blunting a short-lived technical recession amid the build-up of inventories. In demand-side terms, household spending staged a comeback on the heels of last year’s value-added tax hike. Fixed investment languished, however, as debt-burdened firms held off amid heightened economic uncertainty. Moreover, net exports restrained growth owing to a pick-up in imports. A supply-side look at the fourth quarter suggests the economic recovery persisted through the end of the year; manufacturing- and retail-sector activity has been picking up since October. On top of that, survey-based data through December hints at a slight improvement in economic sentiment. With little room to maneuver fiscally, Cyril Ramaphosa’s growth-supportive reforms continue to underpin economic prospects. However, they are expected to face hurdles over the coming months in the run-up to this year’s general election.
South Africa Economic GrowthHigher real wages and Ramaphosa’s last-ditch fiscal stimulus are expected to lift economic sentiment ahead of this year’s elections, stoking household spending and fixed investment, respectively. As such, Met the why particular analysts expect the economy to bounce back somewhat this year. Key downside risks remain, however. Of particular concern, a credit-rating downgrade by Moody’s would trigger large-scale capital outflows and undermine any short-term recovery. Moreover, a Chinese slowdown would bruise economic activity. Medium-term growth prospects are being held back by concerns over fiscal slippage and the inadequate pace of structural reforms. Analysts expect growth of 1.6% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020.
South Africa Economy Data
5 years of South Africa economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
South Africa Facts
|Bond Yield||8.95||0.29 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||14.25||-0.21 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||0.6||-0.44 %||Feb 08|
Start Your Free Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
South Africa Economic News
February 12, 2019
A preliminary estimate showed an ailing manufacturing sector in December.
February 5, 2019
In January, the Standard Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed 0.6 points to 49.6 points, closing in on the 50-point threshold that distinguishes deterioration from improvement in the South African private sector. January’s reading revealed a more modest deterioration in business conditions, reflected in smaller declines in output and new orders amid the first uptick in external demand in more than a year.
January 23, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.2% from a month earlier in December, contrasting November’s 0.2% month-on-month rise.
January 17, 2019
At its meeting ending 17 January, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.75%.
January 11, 2019
A preliminary estimate showed the manufacturing sector cooling off in November.