Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

March 26, 2019

A detailed release confirmed a deceleration in the fourth quarter of last year as exports lost momentum, dragged by a broad-based pullback across the Eurozone. Domestic demand, however, continued to buttress growth in Q4: Amid lower inflation and all-time low unemployment, fixed investment rebounded and household spending accelerated. Moreover, turning to Q1 2019, retail sales gained steam in January, despite negative consumer sentiment, while industrial production climbed at the start of the year owing to soaring output in the all-important car sector. In the political arena, Zuzana Caputova, a center-left independent pro-European candidate, is poised to win the presidential election amid increasing disaffection with Smer, Slovakia’s biggest party.

Slovakia Economic Growth

Growth is expected to moderate this year amid easing fixed investment due to completed manufacturing projects in the all-important car industry. Nevertheless, household spending is seen supporting growth, aided by subdued inflation and a tight labor market. Moreover, despite lingering global trade uncertainties, most panelists expect exports to gain steam this year. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 3.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Slovakia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.45.45.45.4
GDP per capita (EUR)13,70714,04914,55414,95715,648
GDP (EUR bn)74.276.178.981.285.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.52.83.93.33.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.81.42.32.63.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.93.019.8-8.33.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.23.06.03.83.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.13.61.72.16.0
Unemployment Rate14.213.211.59.78.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.7-2.7-2.2-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.753.552.351.850.9
Money (annual variation in %)6.25.211.15.26.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.1-0.50.21.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.5-0.1-0.3-0.51.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-3.5-4.3-0.28.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)1.91.0-1.7-1.4-2.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.40.9-1.4-1.2-1.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)4.24.73.33.63.2
Exports (EUR billion)64.264.767.770.075.1
Imports (EUR billion)59.960.064.466.471.9
Exports (annual variation in %)3.30.94.63.57.2
Imports (annual variation in %)2.30.17.23.18.3

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Slovakia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.39-4.12 %Apr 12
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Apr 12
Stock Market3500.0 %Apr 12

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