Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

April 30, 2018

Economic activity is expected to have expanded healthily in the first quarter. The industrial sector had a weak start to 2018, but this was likely due to temporary factors, mirroring industrial sectors across the Eurozone. Moreover, growth in bank loans slowed somewhat in the first two months of the year, although it remained solid. Consumer spending, however, was robust in January and February, underpinned by strong wage rises and tightening labor market conditions. That said, the political scenario remains turbulent. Further anti-corruption protests took place after Prime Minister Robert Fico stepped down in mid-March, leading to the resignation of the interior minister and the chief of police. If protests persist, they could jeopardize the stability of the current government.

Slovakia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to expand at a solid pace this year. Favorable financing conditions and rising inflows of EU funds will buoy fixed investment, while solid wage growth and a healthy labor market will spur consumer spending. Moreover, prudent fiscal policies together with a robust economy will keep the fiscal deficit under control, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio set firmly on a downward path. The main downside risk continues to stem from protracted political turbulence, which could impact investor confidence. Met the why particular panelists project GDP will expand 3.7% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.5% in 2019.

Slovakia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.45.45.45.4
GDP per capita (EUR)13,70714,02314,51514,920-  
GDP (EUR bn)74.275.978.781.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.52.63.83.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.81.42.22.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.91.216.9-9.3-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.93.67.44.7-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.13.61.72.1-  
Unemployment Rate14.213.211.59.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.7-2.7-1.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.753.652.551.9-  
Money (annual variation in %)6.25.211.15.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.1-0.50.2-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.5-0.1-0.3-0.5-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-3.5-4.3-0.2-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.05-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.21-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.33-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.91.00.2-0.7-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.40.90.1-0.6-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)2.92.82.02.3-  
Exports (EUR billion)62.462.666.168.3-  
Imports (EUR billion)59.559.864.166.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)3.70.35.63.3-  
Imports (annual variation in %)3.20.57.13.0-  

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Slovakia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.32-4.12 %May 16
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %May 16
Stock Market3300.0 %May 16

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