Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

April 24, 2018

A recently released advanced estimate for economic growth in Q1 of this year surprised on the upside. Despite moderating somewhat, activity was supported by a strong manufacturing sector and a rebound in the construction sector. The estimate was based on data for the first two months of the year, but indicators for March suggest that the more comprehensive result will hold few surprises. The manufacturing and electronics PMIs remained in expansionary territory, with the manufacturing PMI recording its 19th consecutive month of improving business conditions. However, the average electronics PMI reading for Q1 edged down from Q4 2017. This suggests a moderation in the electronics sector, a key driver of the economy, as also evidenced by trade data for the first quarter.

Singapore Economic Growth

The outlook for 2018 remains bright. Fixed investment should rebound this year, while upbeat consumer confidence and low unemployment levels should support private consumption. There are, however, downside risks in the export-oriented sectors; weakening demand from key export markets like China would drag on growth, while increasing trade tensions between the U.S. and China could affect the larger global economy and dent Singapore’s export prospects. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to grow 3.2% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.8% in 2019.

Singapore Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.55.55.65.6
GDP per capita (USD)56,03356,45253,62652,920-  
GDP (USD bn)303309297297-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.03.61.92.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.42.44.60.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.7-1.11.1-2.5-  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)1.72.7-5.13.7-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-4.30.34.61.5-  
Unemployment Rate1.92.01.92.1-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.30.1-1.01.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)11399.2113113-  
Money (annual variation in %)4.33.31.58.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.5-0.1-0.60.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.41.0-0.5-0.5-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.7-3.3-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.380.880.88-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)0.06.2-14.3-0.1-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.261.331.421.45-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.251.271.371.38-  
Current Account (% of GDP)16.919.718.119.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)51.160.953.656.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)75.081.982.882.9-  
Exports (USD billion)448444380361-  
Imports (USD billion)373362297279-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.0-0.8-14.5-4.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)0.2-2.9-18.0-6.2-  
International Reserves (USD)273257247247-  
External Debt (% of GDP)430439439453-  

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Singapore Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.651.39 %May 16
Exchange Rate1.34-0.01 %May 16
Stock Market3,5330.18 %May 16

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