Saudi Arabia Economic Forecast

Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook

October 3, 2017

The economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter in Q2 as the oil sector struggled with subdued crude prices and output, and the non-oil private sector faced reduced government support. Low oil prices, coupled with the country’s commitment to cutting crude output per last November’s OPEC deal, are weighing on investment and household consumption. In the third quarter, the economy is expected to have performed somewhat better, with PMI readings suggesting strong new orders and export demand growth. More importantly, oil prices hit a two-year high at the end of September. However, the economy is not yet out of the woods, as outstanding bank loans continued to fall in July and August, pointing to persistent weakness in the private sector. In addition, while the country’s fiscal performance in H1 was better than expected, foreign reserves in August fell to their lowest level since April 2011 due to the gaping fiscal deficit.

Saudi Arabia Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)25,20524,89224,57721,01420,145
GDP (USD bn)736747756652639
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate5.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)13.66.4-2.3-14.8-12.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Money (annual variation in %)13.611.
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.753.753.753.753.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.753.753.753.753.75
Current Account (% of GDP)22.418.19.8-8.7-3.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)16513573.7-56.7-24.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)24722318444.358.4
Exports (USD billion)388376342204182
Imports (USD billion)142153158159124
Exports (annual variation in %)6.5-3.2-8.9-11.6-11.4
Imports (annual variation in %)
International Reserves (USD)656726732616536
External Debt (% of GDP)12.011.612.515.1-  

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Saudi Arabia Facts

Bond Yield2.490.0 %Jun 23
Exchange Rate3.750.0 %Oct 13
Stock Market0.21.42 %Oct 12

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Saudi Arabia Economic Growth

October 3, 2017

Because of a weak oil sector and unfavorable dynamics in the non-oil private sector, the economy is expected to shrink 0.4% this year. Looking to 2018, the Saudi economy is seen growing again as infrastructure spending growth accelerates, oil prices continue to rise and private consumption proves resilient even with the implementation of VAT and an energy price reform. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists pencil in growth of 1.5% next year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection.

Saudi Arabia Economic News

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