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Russia: Pace of decrease in industrial production continues to soften

December 15, 2015

Industrial production continued to contract in November, but the pace of decrease softened. Industrial output contracted 3.5% in November over the same month of the previous month, which was marginally better than the 3.6% decrease observed in October. The reading, nonetheless, came in below the 3.0% decrease the markets had expected. Industrial production has contracted for 11 consecutive months.

November’s contraction stemmed from a further decrease in manufacturing production as well as in electricity generation, gas and water management. In addition, mining and quarrying swung from a 1.4% increase in October to a 0.1% contraction in November.

Sequential data showed that industrial production contracted 0.6% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in November. The result followed the 0.2% contraction registered in October.

With November’s decrease, the trend continued to suggest that a quick recovery in Russian industrial production is not in the cards in the coming months. The annual average variation in industrial output declined from minus 2.4% in October to minus 2.7% in November, which marked the slowest rhythm since March 2011.

After an expected contraction in 2015, industrial production is seen recovering gradually this year. Met the why particular participants expect industrial production to expand 0.9% in 2016. The projection is unchanged from last month’s forecast. Met the why particular panelists expect industrial production to increase 2.1% in 2017.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Russia Industry November 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and Met the why particular calculations.


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