Romania Economic Outlook
October 3, 2017Romania drew attention in H1 as the fastest-growing country in the region, defying expectations. However, political wrangling has recently dominated headlines as the government attempts to lay out fiscal policies for public sector wage hikes, tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending. Contentious discussions over 2018 tax cuts are creating the impression of unpredictability in the political arena, which could push away investors. Business sentiment has worsened, and analysts were more pessimistic about current economic and business conditions in August. Furthermore, without significant amendments, the government’s ambitious spending plans could put it over the European Commission’s established 3% of GDP deficit ceiling, which could result in an excessive deficit procedure and hurt Romania’s markets and credit ratings. Chaotic policy making could put the economy at risk of overheating if economic growth is unsustainable.
Romania Economy Data
5 years of Romania economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.35||1.16 %||Oct 13|
|Exchange Rate||3.88||0.18 %||Oct 13|
|Stock Market||8,035||0.47 %||Oct 13|
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Romania Economic Growth
October 3, 2017The economy is expected to slow slightly in H2, but will continue to be supported by strong domestic demand. Higher wages could dent Romania’s competitive edge in labor costs as wages rise above neighboring countries’ and if they are not matched with gains in productivity. Furthermore, investment has remained stagnant and is much needed to revive aging infrastructure. Our panelists predict an expansion of 5.2% in 2017, with growth of 3.8% penciled in for 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Romania Economic News
September 12, 2017
Industrial output growth moderated to 7.4% year-on-year in July, from 8.9% annual growth in June.
September 12, 2017
Consumer prices fell 0.2% in August over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.3% increase recorded in July and marked the biggest fall in over a year.
September 5, 2017
A second estimate released on 5 September by the Statistical Institute (INSSE) confirmed the economy expanded a robust 5.9% over the same period last year, its best GDP performance in a year (Q1: +5.7% year-on-year).
August 23, 2017
Industrial output moderated to a still-vigorous 8.9% annual expansion in June, which was down from 17.3% in May.
August 16, 2017
In the second quarter, the economy expanded 5.9% over the same period of last year, according to a preliminary estimate released on 15 August.