Romania Economic Forecast

Romania Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

Fourth-quarter growth moderated somewhat but was nonetheless upbeat, landing roughly in line with analysts’ expectations. Household spending remained firmly in the driver’s seat, as consumers appeared to benefit from the tight labor market and lower inflation. Investment continued to contract; absorption of EU-linked structural funding was sluggish. On the external front, weaker industrial output regionwide ate into local manufacturing activity and bruised export growth. Looking at the new year, some familiar trends stand out. On the upside, unemployment fell lower in January and retail sales jumped. On the downside, industrial output growth stalled. In late March, facing a stock-market backlash, the government largely scrapped its controversial new tax on banks’ assets; the move should lift business confidence and, in turn, investment.

Romania Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to cool this year as slower employment growth and labor shortages weigh on household spending gains. Investment, meanwhile, is still expected to be hit by weak economic sentiment in light of the government’s tax proposals, as well as rising labor costs. Twin deficits also pose downside risks, especially in the event of a global downturn. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 3.2% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2020.

Romania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)20.020.019.919.819.6
GDP per capita (EUR)7,2207,5348,0758,6009,550
GDP (EUR bn)145150160170188
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.53.14.04.86.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.64.25.88.011.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-5.63.27.1-1.84.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)7.96.22.81.87.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.56.48.913.511.7
Unemployment Rate7.16.86.85.94.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-1.3-0.8-3.0-2.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.539.137.737.435.0
Money (annual variation in %)8.88.49.49.811.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.60.8-0.9-0.53.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.21.4-0.4-1.11.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.002.751.751.751.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)26.19.1-1.11.29.4
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.484.484.524.544.66
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.424.444.444.494.57
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.1-0.6-1.2-2.0-3.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.5-1.0-2.0-3.6-6.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-6.0-6.0-8.0-9.0-12.0
Exports (EUR billion)44.047.049.052.057.0
Imports (EUR billion)50.053.057.061.069.0
Exports (annual variation in %)11.06.84.36.19.6
Imports (annual variation in %)2.06.07.57.013.1
International Reserves (EUR)32.532.232.234.233.5
External Debt (% of GDP)67.863.057.454.749.8

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Romania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.050.23 %Apr 12
Exchange Rate4.21-0.34 %Apr 12
Stock Market8,267-0.59 %Apr 12

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Romania Economic News

  • Romania: Economic growth down marginally in Q4 2018

    April 8, 2019

    A second estimate released on 8 April by the Statistical Institute (INSSE) confirmed that the economy grew 4.1% in the fourth quarter over the same period a year earlier, a notch below the third quarter’s 4.2% expansion.

    Read more

  • Romania: Central Bank stays put in April

    April 2, 2019

    At its monetary policy meeting held on 2 April, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept the policy rate unchanged at 2.50%.

    Read more

  • Romania: Growth eases through Q4 2018

    March 7, 2019

    A comprehensive estimate released by the National Institute of Statistics revealed the economy expanded 4.1% in the fourth quarter over the same period a year earlier, decelerating from the third quarter (Q3 2018: +4.2% year-on-year).

    Read more

  • Romania: Growth moderates in Q4

    February 14, 2019

    According to a preliminary estimate released by the National Institute of Statistics on 14 February, the economy expanded 4.1% in the fourth quarter over the same period last year, slightly decelerating from the third quarter (Q3: +4.2% year-on-year).

    Read more

  • Romania: Inflation stable in January

    February 13, 2019

    Consumer prices jumped 0.8% over the previous month in January, following December’s 0.2% month-on-month increase.

    Read more

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