Puerto Rico Economic Forecast

Puerto Rico Economic Outlook

August 7, 2018

The economy remains in a deep downturn following Hurricanes Irma and Maria last fall and is expected to have shrunk at the fastest pace in recent history in FY 2018, which ended in June. Despite recording a smaller decline in May, economic activity fell 7.3% year-on-year in the first eleven months of FY 2018, according to the Economic Development Bank for Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, the government filed lawsuits against the Financial Oversight and Management Board in July, after it imposed its own austere fiscal plan and budget on the Commonwealth. The government wants more control over its budgetary power, and the eventual court rulings will have a significant impact on Puerto Rico’s fiscal consolidation path.

Puerto Rico Economic Growth

The economy is expected to return to growth in FY 2019. This is largely due to a base effect from last year’s dismal performance and stimulus from federal disaster relief funding. Our panelists estimate that GNP will expand 3.6% in FY 2019, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For FY 2020, panelists pencil in growth of 2.3%.

Puerto Rico Economy Data

Population (million)
GNP per capita (USD)19,18819,46320,01120,58521,057
GNP (USD bn)68.968.869.670.270.6
Economic Growth (GNP, annual variation in %)-0.1-1.8-0.8-1.3-2.4
Unemployment Rate14.014.313.011.711.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-  -  -  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)94.297.895.191.591.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.41.5-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.90.9-0.3-0.20.6
Current Account (% of GDP)  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)  
Trade Balance (USD billion)17.420.026.228.524.9
Exports (USD billion)62.462.569.471.971.1
Imports (USD billion)45.042.543.243.346.2
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.3-

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