Puerto Rico Economic Outlook
February 12, 2019
The economy is finally recovering after devastating hurricanes likely precipitated the largest economic contraction in decades in fiscal year 2018, which ran from July 2017 to June 2018. In November, economic activity rose at the fastest pace since current records began nearly two decades ago, according to data from the Economic Development Bank of Puerto Rico. This increase was linked to higher employment, electric power generation and cement sales. Meanwhile, on 4 February a U.S. federal judge approved a major debt restructuring plan for Puerto Rico that should save the cash-strapped Commonwealth government over USD 110 million a year in servicing costs.Puerto Rico Economic Growth
This fiscal year, the economy is likely to bounce back, although this is primarily because of a miserably low base effect and stimulus received from federal disaster relief funding. Our panelists forecast that GNP will expand 4.1% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, before slowing to 2.9% in FY 2020.Puerto Rico Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| GNP per capita (USD) | 19,188 | 19,463 | 20,011 | 20,585 | 21,057 |
| GNP (USD bn) | 68.9 | 68.8 | 69.6 | 70.2 | 70.6 |
| Economic Growth (GNP, annual variation in %) | -0.1 | -1.8 | -0.8 | -1.3 | -2.4 |
| Unemployment Rate | 14.0 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 11.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 94.2 | 97.8 | 95.1 | 91.5 | 91.0 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 0.4 | 1.5 | -1.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.6 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 4.7 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 4.8 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 8.6 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 17.4 | 20.0 | 26.2 | 28.5 | 24.9 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 62.4 | 62.5 | 69.4 | 71.9 | 71.1 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 45.0 | 42.5 | 43.2 | 43.3 | 46.2 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 5.9 | 0.1 | 11.1 | 3.6 | -1.0 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -3.3 | -5.7 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 6.7 |
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Puerto Rico Facts
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