Puerto Rico Economic Forecast

Puerto Rico Economic Outlook

November 6, 2018

After small year-on-year contractions in July and August, economic activity increased for the first time in 70 months in September, according to data released by the Economic Development Bank for Puerto Rico. This comes after GNP likely contracted at the fastest pace in over two decades in FY 2018, which ran from July 2017 to June 2018. Meanwhile, the federal financial oversight board approved a new fiscal reform plan on 23 October that accounts for higher disaster relief funding. The highly-indebted Commonwealth is set for higher public outlays this fiscal year followed by significant tightening through FY 2022.

Puerto Rico Economic Growth

This fiscal year, the economy is likely to grow due to a miserably-low base effect and the stimulus received from federal disaster relief funding. Our panelists forecast that GNP will expand 4.2% in FY 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before slowing to 3.0% in FY 2020.

Puerto Rico Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.53.53.43.4
GNP per capita (USD)19,18819,46320,01120,58521,057
GNP (USD bn)68.968.869.670.270.6
Economic Growth (GNP, annual variation in %)-0.1-1.8-0.8-1.3-2.4
Unemployment Rate14.014.313.011.711.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-  -  -  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)94.297.895.191.591.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.41.5-1.30.21.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.90.9-0.3-0.20.6
Current Account (% of GDP)4.74.27.38.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)4.84.37.58.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)17.420.026.228.524.9
Exports (USD billion)62.462.569.471.971.1
Imports (USD billion)45.042.543.243.346.2
Exports (annual variation in %)5.90.111.13.6-1.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.3-5.71.80.26.7

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