Puerto Rico Economic Outlook
October 11, 2017
The Atlantic hurricane season has delivered a heavy blow this year to an economy already crippled by government debts. When Hurricane Irma skirted past Puerto Rico in early September, many Puerto Ricans breathed a sigh of relief, despite the resulting power outages and infrastructure damage. However, later in the month, the island was hit directly by Hurricane Maria, a devastating category-four hurricane. Moody’s estimates up to USD 95 billion in economic losses as a result of Hurricanes Maria and Irma. Maximum U.S. federal assistance will be required in order to support the recovery process, but the Trump administration’s plan to raise USD 29 billion in disaster relief for all areas of the U.S. affected by recent weather falls far short of what is needed.Puerto Rico Economy Data
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| GNP per capita (USD) | 18,733 | 19,188 | 19,279 | - | - |
| GNP (USD bn) | 68.1 | 68.9 | 68.5 | - | - |
| Economic Growth (GNP, annual variation in %) | 0.5 | -0.1 | -1.7 | - | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 15.2 | 14.0 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 11.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 63.8 | 63.4 | 65.9 | 64.2 | 61.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.5 | -1.3 | 0.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 3.5 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 8.2 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 3.6 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 8.6 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 12.3 | 17.4 | 20.0 | 26.2 | 28.5 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 58.9 | 62.4 | 62.5 | 69.4 | 71.9 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 46.6 | 45.0 | 42.5 | 43.2 | 43.3 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -9.2 | 5.9 | 0.1 | 11.1 | 3.6 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 4.3 | -3.3 | -5.7 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
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Puerto Rico Economic Growth
October 11, 2017
The economy will remain deep in recession for the years to come. For FY 2018, Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect GNP to contract 2.3%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2019, GNP is expected to again fall 1.3%.
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