Puerto Rico Economic Forecast

Puerto Rico Economic Outlook

May 15, 2018

The economy remains deep in recession this fiscal year, which will end in June. Economic activity declined over 9% year-on-year in the fiscal year through February, according to the Economic Development Bank for Puerto Rico. This difficult economic picture fits with a reality in which electricity production, in the same period, fell over 30% in annual terms. Moreover, the total workforce continued to shrink through March this fiscal year, reflecting ongoing emigration from Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, on 19 April, the Commonwealth’s federal oversight board approved a fiscal turnaround plan that includes fewer public sector jobs and pension cutbacks. The plan forecasts that the government will be able to make over USD 6 billion in debt repayments though 2023.

Puerto Rico Economic Growth

By the end of June, the aftereffects of Hurricanes Maria and Irma will have kept the economy in recession. Our panelists estimate that GNP will contract 4.6% in FY 2018, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. They see the economy achieving growth of 3.5% in FY 2019.

Puerto Rico Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.53.5-  
GNP per capita (USD)19,18819,279-  -  -  
GNP (USD bn)68.968.5-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GNP, annual variation in %)-0.1-1.7-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate14.014.313.011.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-  -  -  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)63.465.964.261.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.41.5-1.30.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.90.9-0.3-0.2-  
Current Account (% of GDP)4.74.27.38.2-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)4.84.37.58.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)17.420.026.228.5-  
Exports (USD billion)62.462.569.471.9-  
Imports (USD billion)45.042.543.243.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)5.90.111.13.6-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.3-5.71.80.2-  

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