Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

Available data for the first quarter suggests last year’s momentum persisted at the outset of 2018, with upbeat growth in the quarter likely driven by resilient domestic demand. Strong job creation and buoyant retail sales in the quarter point to a consumer spending-led expansion. Moreover, tighter labor market dynamics have kept real wage growth elevated despite the continued influx of migrant workers. Furthermore, soaring business confidence and healthy PMI readings through March are likely to have translated into robust fixed investment in the quarter, which is also expected to have benefitted from the recent surge in construction activity. In early May, the government offered some concessions to the EU in its ongoing standoff over the rule of law; officials on all sides have been trying to end the dispute as the bloc begins drafting its upcoming 2021–27 budget.

Poland Economic Growth

Domestic demand will again support buoyant growth this year. Consumer spending will be underpinned by strong wage growth and higher employment, while fixed investment will benefit from heavy EU-linked funding inflows, upbeat business sentiment and a nascent construction boom. Meanwhile, export growth is set to moderate and, despite stronger government revenue flows, fiscal slippage ahead of the next election cycle is likely to widen the deficit. Recent uncertainty over the next EU budget is clouding the long-term outlook. Analysts expect growth of 4.1% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2019.

Poland Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (EUR)11,37511,80611,31511,176-  
GDP (EUR bn)395411430424-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)  
Unemployment Rate13.411.49.78.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-3.5-2.6-2.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.750.251.154.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.7-1.0-0.50.8-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.80.1-0.7-0.2-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.9-2.6-0.83.3-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.502.001.501.50-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)8.10.3-9.611.4-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)  
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.3-2.1-0.6-0.5-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-5.0-8.5-2.6-0.9-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-0.3-  
Exports (EUR billion)149159172177-  
Imports (EUR billion)149162170175-  
Exports (annual variation in %)  
Imports (annual variation in %)  
International Reserves (EUR)77.182.686.9118-  
External Debt (% of GDP)73.265.469.171.7-  

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield3.27-0.30 %May 16
Exchange Rate3.62-0.53 %May 16
Stock Market59,791-1.13 %May 16

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