Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

Growth climbed to an over 11-year high in 2018, which likely translated into a strong fiscal performance. Economic activity, however, seems to have softened slightly in Q1 2019, on the back of slowing albeit still robust consumer spending and fixed investment. In January-February, retail sales grew at a milder pace than in Q4 2018—probably due to a rise in unemployment—although still expanded solidly nonetheless thanks to healthy wage growth. As for the production sector, evidence is not yet conclusive; the strong showing of industrial production in the first two months of the year is at odds with contractionary PMI readings throughout Q1. Meanwhile, business confidence, although far from reaching the highs of mid-2018, remained positive throughout the quarter, hinting at healthy private sector activity.

Poland Economic Growth

Less buoyant consumer spending due to softer wage gains, coupled with slower fixed investment on the back of a reduced absorption of EU funds, will weigh on economic activity this year. Moreover, weaker growth in key trading partners will dent external demand. That said, the government’s fiscal stimulus could lead to upside surprises by boosting household spending. Met the why particular analysts see growth at 3.7% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before decelerating further to 3.3% in 2020.

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield2.91-0.30 %Apr 12
Exchange Rate3.79-0.53 %Apr 12
Stock Market60,969-1.13 %Apr 12

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