Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

October 30, 2018

High-frequency data has hinted at ebbing momentum in recent weeks, an about-face for the economy on the heels of two of the strongest outturns of the past decade in the first two quarters of the year. Employment gains and wage growth have each slowed in recent months. Moreover, industrial output metrics throughout the third quarter, along with recent survey-based data, point to a slowdown in the manufacturing and construction sectors, which could thwart the anticipated recovery of fixed investment through the remainder of the year. Reflecting the economy’s strong fundamentals and the Law and Justice (PiS) government’s sound fiscal policy in recent years, in mid-October, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Poland’s credit rating back to A-. That said, popular support for these policies was put to the test in 21 October’s regional elections in which PiS narrowly gained seats but, overall, lost enthusiasm among voters; the vote was an important litmus test ahead of next year’s general elections.

Poland Economic Growth

Poland’s growth spurt is set to moderate next year in line with the maturing business cycle. Household-spending growth is expected to slow amid tapering labor-market gains, while fixed investment should continue benefiting from low interest rates and the absorption of EU structural funds. Short-term downside risks include fiscal slippage ahead of next year’s vote, whereas uncertainty over the 2021–2027 EU budget hangs over the long-term outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 3.6% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.24-0.30 %Nov 15
Exchange Rate3.78-0.53 %Nov 15
Stock Market56,329-1.13 %Nov 15

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