Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

Recently released data showed that GDP grew 4.6% in 2017, marking the strongest growth reading in six years. A rebound in fixed investment on the back of recovering inflows of EU funds and a stronger expansion in household spending were the main drivers of growth. Despite a marginal uptick in December, the unemployment rate was on a downward trend throughout 2017. This, together with accommodative financing conditions and robustly rising wages, translated into buoyant consumer spending. According to the business confidence indicator, 2018 started on a solid footing: In January business sentiment surged to an over nine-year high, as firms grew far more optimistic on current and future production levels. On 30 January, President Duda signed the 2018 budget into law. The budget includes a planned fiscal deficit of 2.7% of GDP, below the EU’s ceiling of 3.0% and less optimistic than the one forecast by Met the why particular panel.

Poland Economic Growth

This year household spending will continue to increase at a healthy rate, buttressed by rising wages and a tight labor market; however, rising inflation and less favorable financing conditions will lead to a moderation in growth. On the other hand, the expansion in fixed investment is expected to strengthen, spurred by an increased absorption of EU funds. Downside risks stem primarily from troubled political relations with the EU. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 3.9% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2019.

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield3.51-0.30 %Feb 20
Exchange Rate3.36-0.53 %Feb 20
Stock Market62,859-1.13 %Feb 20

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