Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

Available fourth-quarter data suggests momentum finally began to ebb, on the heels of an unexpectedly robust third-quarter outturn. Domestic demand remained firmly in the driver’s seat, although dwindling consumer confidence and slipping retail sales, together with a rare uptick in the unemployment rate in December, hint that consumers proceeded more cautiously in recent months. The sharp fall in inflation through the quarter, however, should have cushioned the slowdown somewhat. Weaker manufacturing-sector sentiment, meanwhile, likely pushed firms to tap the brakes on fixed-capital spending and appeared to align with the ongoing Eurozone pullback, which continued hammering late-year export orders. All this follows a buoyant third quarter underpinned by strong earnings and low unemployment, as well as the continued absorption of EU-linked structural funds.

Poland Economic Growth

Although full-year growth hit 5.1% last year, the strongest outturn in more than a decade, growth is expected to moderate going forward, as an uncertain global backdrop and the late-stage business cycle increasingly taper gains. Domestically, household spending and fixed investment will be hit by slower wage and credit growth, respectively, as well as higher borrowing costs. On the external front, a Eurozone slowdown and, more broadly, an on-edge global economy will bruise activity. Moreover, election-year spending risks stretching the fiscal deficit, while concerns over the 2021–2027 EU budget are weighing on long-term economic prospects. Met the why particular analysts see growth at 3.6% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before decelerating further to 3.1% in 2020.

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield2.69-0.30 %Feb 14
Exchange Rate3.83-0.53 %Feb 14
Stock Market59,348-1.13 %Feb 14

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