Poland Economic Outlook
February 5, 2019Available fourth-quarter data suggests momentum finally began to ebb, on the heels of an unexpectedly robust third-quarter outturn. Domestic demand remained firmly in the driver’s seat, although dwindling consumer confidence and slipping retail sales, together with a rare uptick in the unemployment rate in December, hint that consumers proceeded more cautiously in recent months. The sharp fall in inflation through the quarter, however, should have cushioned the slowdown somewhat. Weaker manufacturing-sector sentiment, meanwhile, likely pushed firms to tap the brakes on fixed-capital spending and appeared to align with the ongoing Eurozone pullback, which continued hammering late-year export orders. All this follows a buoyant third quarter underpinned by strong earnings and low unemployment, as well as the continued absorption of EU-linked structural funds.
Poland Economic GrowthAlthough full-year growth hit 5.1% last year, the strongest outturn in more than a decade, growth is expected to moderate going forward, as an uncertain global backdrop and the late-stage business cycle increasingly taper gains. Domestically, household spending and fixed investment will be hit by slower wage and credit growth, respectively, as well as higher borrowing costs. On the external front, a Eurozone slowdown and, more broadly, an on-edge global economy will bruise activity. Moreover, election-year spending risks stretching the fiscal deficit, while concerns over the 2021–2027 EU budget are weighing on long-term economic prospects. Met the why particular analysts see growth at 3.6% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before decelerating further to 3.1% in 2020.
Poland Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||2.69||-0.30 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||3.83||-0.53 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||59,348||-1.13 %||Feb 14|
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Poland Economic News
February 15, 2019
A preliminary estimate released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) revealed that consumer prices were nearly stable from a month earlier in January (January: +0.1% month-on-month; December: +0.0% month-on-month).
February 14, 2019
Poland’s economy grew 4.9% year-on-year and in unadjusted terms in the fourth quarter of last year, according to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Office (GUS) on 14 February.
February 6, 2019
As widely expected by market analysts, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record-low 1.50% at its 5–6 February monetary policy meeting.
February 1, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, recovered somewhat in January (January: 48.2 points) from its December 2018 low (December: 47.6 points).
January 24, 2019
Nominal retail sales rose 4.7% from the same month a year earlier in December, down from November’s 8.2% year-on-year rise.