Poland Economic Outlook
May 8, 2018Available data for the first quarter suggests last year’s momentum persisted at the outset of 2018, with upbeat growth in the quarter likely driven by resilient domestic demand. Strong job creation and buoyant retail sales in the quarter point to a consumer spending-led expansion. Moreover, tighter labor market dynamics have kept real wage growth elevated despite the continued influx of migrant workers. Furthermore, soaring business confidence and healthy PMI readings through March are likely to have translated into robust fixed investment in the quarter, which is also expected to have benefitted from the recent surge in construction activity. In early May, the government offered some concessions to the EU in its ongoing standoff over the rule of law; officials on all sides have been trying to end the dispute as the bloc begins drafting its upcoming 2021–27 budget.
Poland Economic GrowthDomestic demand will again support buoyant growth this year. Consumer spending will be underpinned by strong wage growth and higher employment, while fixed investment will benefit from heavy EU-linked funding inflows, upbeat business sentiment and a nascent construction boom. Meanwhile, export growth is set to moderate and, despite stronger government revenue flows, fiscal slippage ahead of the next election cycle is likely to widen the deficit. Recent uncertainty over the next EU budget is clouding the long-term outlook. Analysts expect growth of 4.1% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2019.
Poland Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||3.27||-0.30 %||May 16|
|Exchange Rate||3.62||-0.53 %||May 16|
|Stock Market||59,791||-1.13 %||May 16|
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Poland Economic News
May 2, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.5% on a monthly basis in April, contrasting March 0.1% drop.
May 2, 2018
In April, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, ticked up 0.2 points to 53.9.
April 25, 2018
In April, sentiment in the manufacturing sector moderated, according to the Business Tendency Survey released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS-BTS).
April 23, 2018
Retail sales rose 9.2% from the same month a year earlier in March, accelerating from February’s already strong 7.9% year-on-year increase.
April 19, 2018
According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), industrial production increased 1.8% in March from the same month last year, losing considerable steam from February’s 7.4% expansion.