Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

July 31, 2018

Second-quarter growth appears to have moderated somewhat from the exceptional outturn at the beginning of the year. One the one hand, buoyant retail sales and the further tightening of the labor market through June suggest another quarter of strong household spending. Moreover, fixed investment looks to have continued riding this year’s wave of EU structural funding and is poised to keep benefitting from still-low borrowing costs. On the other hand, industrial gains have begun tapering off and higher input costs—thanks to the weak zloty—have been weighing on manufacturers’ sentiment. Meanwhile, exports were sluggish into May as the EU-wide slowdown hit external demand. In the ongoing standoff between Warsaw and Brussels, in July, the government’s controversial judicial reforms became the target of a European Commission-led inquiry. Although investment has thus far gone unscathed, political uncertainty has been casting an increasingly long shadow on the resilient economy.

Poland Economic Growth

Domestic demand will remain in the driver’s seat this year. Although consumer spending will be upbeat, employment gains could begin easing as slack fades from the labor market. Moreover, fixed investment will benefit from improved absorption of EU structural funds. Export growth, meanwhile, is set to moderate somewhat as demand cools across Europe. Fiscal slippage ahead of next year’s elections may widen the deficit, while growing uncertainty over the 2021–2027 EU budget is hanging over the long-term outlook. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 4.4% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2019.

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield3.16-0.30 %Aug 14
Exchange Rate3.81-0.53 %Aug 15
Stock Market59,114-1.13 %Aug 14

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