Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

The economy expanded strongly in Q1, buoyed by robust domestic demand. A tight labor market and rapidly rising wages continued to spur consumer spending, while fixed investment benefited from sustained EU funding and low interest rates. Momentum is expected to have carried over into Q2. A jump in retail sales, the declining unemployment rate and sturdy wage growth in April all point to resilient household spending, although cooling consumer confidence calls for caution. As for the production side, surging industrial production in April and positive business sentiment in the first two months of the quarter reinforce the picture of a solid economy. In the political arena, the governing Law and Justice (PiS) party won a convincing victory in the European elections. This, together with the government’s fiscal stimulus measures, bodes well for PiS in this autumn’s parliamentary elections.

Poland Economic Growth

Although growth will ease in 2019 on Eurozone weakness, buoyant domestic demand will ensure the economy remains healthy nonetheless. Consumer spending will benefit from marked wage gains and expansionary fiscal policies, while EU-funded projects underpin investment. Moreover, the fiscal stimulus should also boost growth, although it will widen the fiscal deficit. Met the why particular analysts see growth at 3.9% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before decelerating further to 3.4% in 2020.

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield2.45-0.30 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate3.77-0.53 %Jun 13
Stock Market59,374-1.13 %Jun 13

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