Philippines Economic Outlook
April 16, 2019Economic growth likely slowed in the first quarter of this year from Q4 2018’s recently revised print, owing to increasing headwinds from both the domestic and external sectors. The manufacturing sector continued to weaken in March, with the PMI falling to a 7-month low and business confidence slumping to the lowest level in the survey’s three-year history. Likewise, merchandise exports slumped again in February. Meanwhile, the protracted budget deadlock continues to derail new public works projects and social program spending that were scheduled to begin this year. This, coupled with the election spending ban on new infrastructure projects (spanning from the end of March to mid-May), suggest public investment will likely be feeble in the first half of the year, which would eat into overall growth in Q1 and Q2.
Philippines Economic GrowthThe economy should advance at a steady pace this year. Public consumption and fixed investment are expected to remain robust despite moderating somewhat, while sustained remittances and more benign inflation should underpin solid household spending. The budget impasse will likely have a notable drag on growth, however, while a global slowdown is a key downside risk. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 6.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and also 6.3% in 2020.
Philippines Economy Data
5 years of Philippines economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||6.02||-4.11 %||Apr 12|
|Exchange Rate||51.70||0.02 %||Apr 12|
|Stock Market||7,881||0.66 %||Apr 12|
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Philippines Economic News
April 15, 2019
Cash remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) totaled USD 2.3 billion in February, which was a 1.5% increase from the same month a year prior.
April 11, 2019
Merchandise exports continued to slump in February, contracting 0.9% year-on-year, although improved somewhat from the downwardly revised 6.7% contraction recorded in January (previously reported: -1.7% year-on-year). The decline in February was largely driven by a continued drop in manufacturing exports with sharp falls in shipments of metal components: gold; and machinery and transport equipment.
April 5, 2019
Consumer prices came in flat over the prior month in March, down from the 0.2% increase logged in February.
Philippines: Momentum in the manufacturing sector wanes in March; business sentiment hits lowest level in survey history
April 1, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by Nikkei and IHS Markit, edged down to 51.5 points in March from 51.9 points in February, which marked a seven-month low for the survey.
March 21, 2019
At its 21 March monetary policy meeting, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP) left the overnight reverse repurchase facility (RRP) on hold at 4.75%, which was in line with market expectations.