Philippines Economic Forecast

Philippines Economic Outlook

September 19, 2017

The pace of expansion in economic activity has likely moderated in the third quarter, but remains robust overall. Household spending, the main engine of growth, continues to expand even as consumers have grown more cautious in Q3 due to rising fuel and electricity prices, as well as ongoing unrest in Marawi City. Signs of softening demand were also reflected in August’s PMI reading, which hit its lowest level since the survey started on the back of a significant slowdown in order book growth. On the bright side, July export data shows that the weakening of the peso has benefited exporters, and loan demand remains robust. Moreover, the government is actively trying to support growth by boosting infrastructure expenditure, which jumped by 25% in annual terms in July after expanding at a lower-than-budgeted pace in H1.

Philippines Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)96.598.2110112114
GDP per capita (USD)2,5922,7682,8412,8642,926
GDP (USD bn)250272285293305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.77.16.16.16.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.65.65.66.37.0
Investment (annual variation in %)11.811.87.216.925.2
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)5.411.38.35.77.0
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.12.72.71.22.3
Unemployment Rate7.07.16.86.35.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-1.4-0.6-0.9-2.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.549.245.444.742.1
Money (annual variation in %)9.433.511.59.113.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.04.12.71.52.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.22.94.21.41.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.11.62.7-3.91.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.504.004.003.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)33.01.322.8-3.9-1.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)41.0644.3944.7946.9349.60
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)42.2142.4644.1145.5347.50
Current Account (% of GDP)2.84.23.82.50.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)6.911.411.87.30.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.0-5.7-3.3-12.2-27.7
Exports (USD billion)52.156.762.158.856.4
Imports (USD billion)62.162.465.471.184.1
Exports (annual variation in %)7.98.89.5-5.3-4.2
Imports (annual variation in %)2.60.54.88.718.4
International Reserves (USD)83.883.279.580.780.7
External Debt (% of GDP)32.028.927.326.525.1

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Philippines Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.63-0.24 %Oct 13
Exchange Rate51.15-0.65 %Oct 13
Stock Market8,4480.54 %Oct 13

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Philippines Economic Growth

September 19, 2017

Despite decelerating from last year, the economy will continue to grow at a robust pace this year and next, as consumer spending is underpinned by a tighter labor market and growing remittances. Meanwhile, fixed investment is expected to benefit from a supportive banking sector, upbeat business confidence and solid public infrastructure spending. Nevertheless, weakening external demand, especially from China, and the prolongation of the conflict with Islamist groups could restrain growth. The Met the why particular panel sees GDP growth of 6.4% in both 2017 and 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Philippines Economic News

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