Philippines Economic Forecast

Philippines Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

Economic growth likely slowed in the first quarter of this year from Q4 2018’s recently revised print, owing to increasing headwinds from both the domestic and external sectors. The manufacturing sector continued to weaken in March, with the PMI falling to a 7-month low and business confidence slumping to the lowest level in the survey’s three-year history. Likewise, merchandise exports slumped again in February. Meanwhile, the protracted budget deadlock continues to derail new public works projects and social program spending that were scheduled to begin this year. This, coupled with the election spending ban on new infrastructure projects (spanning from the end of March to mid-May), suggest public investment will likely be feeble in the first half of the year, which would eat into overall growth in Q1 and Q2.

Philippines Economic Growth

The economy should advance at a steady pace this year. Public consumption and fixed investment are expected to remain robust despite moderating somewhat, while sustained remittances and more benign inflation should underpin solid household spending. The budget impasse will likely have a notable drag on growth, however, while a global slowdown is a key downside risk. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 6.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and also 6.3% in 2020.

Philippines Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)98.299.9112113115
GDP per capita (USD)2,7682,8492,8812,9532,978
GDP (USD bn)272285293305314
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.16.16.16.96.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.65.66.37.15.9
Investment (annual variation in %)11.87.216.926.19.5
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)11.38.35.77.18.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.72.71.22.33.5
Unemployment Rate7.16.86.35.55.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-0.6-0.9-2.4-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)49.245.444.742.142.1
Money (annual variation in %)33.511.59.113.311.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.81.90.72.22.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.63.60.71.32.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.62.7-3.91.14.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.504.004.003.003.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)1.322.8-3.9-1.625.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)44.3944.7946.9349.6050.01
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)42.4644.1145.5347.5050.11
Current Account (% of GDP)4.23.82.5-0.4-0.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)11.411.87.3-1.2-2.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.7-3.3-12.2-26.7-30.0
Exports (USD billion)56.762.158.857.462.9
Imports (USD billion)62.465.471.184.192.9
Exports (annual variation in %)8.89.5-5.3-2.49.5
Imports (annual variation in %)0.54.88.718.411.4
International Reserves (USD)83.279.580.780.781.6
External Debt (% of GDP)28.927.326.524.523.3

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Philippines Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.02-4.11 %Apr 12
Exchange Rate51.700.02 %Apr 12
Stock Market7,8810.66 %Apr 12

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