Paraguay Economic Forecast

Paraguay Economic Outlook

June 11, 2019

Incoming data suggests that growth slowed in the first quarter, continuing the trend that started in the second half of 2018. In March, economic activity fell for the fourth consecutive month and at the sharpest pace in nearly a decade, owing mainly to reduced hydroelectric power generation, as well as lower soy production amid adverse weather conditions. Moreover, following feeble growth in January–February, sales plunged in March primarily in the retail and manufacturing sectors, hinting that domestic demand weakened. Meanwhile, available indicators signal that soft activity persisted at the outset of Q2. Merchandise exports nosedived again in April on lower shipments of soy products, signaling that agricultural production remained depressed.

Paraguay Economic Growth

Despite a weak start to the year, growth is expected to remain firm overall and well above the regional average. Solid consumer spending and investment activity are seen underpinning the expansion. The recession currently engulfing Argentina and disappointing activity in Brazil—the country’s two main trading partners—cloud the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 3.3% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.8% in 2020.

Paraguay Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)6.66.76.86.97.0
GDP per capita (USD)4,4224,6364,0343,9924,233
GDP (USD bn)29.030.927.327.429.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)14.04.73.04.04.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)7.45.32.6-  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.53.81.90.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.98.82.07.911.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate7.96.55.57.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-1.1-1.7-1.5-1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)14.417.620.022.824.1
Money (annual variation in %)17.57.85.88.116.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.84.23.13.94.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.75.03.14.13.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.90.15.04.2-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)11.488.969.638.577.81
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4,5984,6365,7825,8485,588
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4,3154,4655,2115,6835,632
Current Account (% of GDP)2.1-0.2-1.11.5-1.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.6-0.1-0.30.4-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.71.00.61.40.6
Exports (USD billion)13.613.111.911.212.1
Imports (USD billion)11.912.111.39.811.5
Exports (annual variation in %)16.7-3.7-16.62.18.3
Imports (annual variation in %)7.81.1-14.6-5.117.7
International Reserves (USD)5.96.96.27.16.7
External Debt (% of GDP)54.253.459.259.6-  

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Paraguay Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6,2430.18 %Jun 13

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