Oman Economic Outlook
June 4, 2019The economy has had a mixed few recent months. Oil prices through to early June have averaged above the USD 58 per barrel level that the government projected in its budget for 2019, while oil production increased slightly in January–April. Fiscal pressures should have consequently eased somewhat, although both Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings are still considering downgrading the sovereign credit ratings of cash-strapped Oman. Meanwhile, the non-hydrocarbon economy is seemingly strengthening, with total revenue recorded in the hotel industry rising by over 11% in annual terms in March; new tax exemptions effective 1 June for investors in the tourism sector could hurt the public purse, however.
Oman Economic GrowthThe economy should largely maintain its momentum this year on robust government consumption and faster fixed investment growth. Economic growth should be particularly strong next year thanks to government plans to significantly raise investment in the Khazzan-Makarem gas field that year. That said, fragile public finances and OPEC+ efforts to constrain oil output hinder growth prospects. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists forecast growth of 2.1% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.
Oman Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||21,935||21,784||18,214||16,646||17,546|
|GDP (USD bn)||78.8||81.0||68.8||66.7||72.5|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||5.3||1.2||4.7||5.4||-|
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||6.0||5.1||-0.6||-0.6||-|
|Investment (annual variation in %)||12.4||2.4||1.1||-0.7||-|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||3.1||0.2||5.4||3.2||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-0.3||-1.2||-19.0||-26.0||-11.7|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||4.9||4.9||12.8||31.4||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.3||1.0||0.1||1.1||1.7|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||1.00||1.00||1.00||1.19||1.95|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||6.6||5.2||-15.9||-18.4||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||5.2||4.2||-11.9||-12.3||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||24.4||25.6||9.1||6.2||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||56.4||53.5||35.6||27.5||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||32.0||27.9||26.5||21.3||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||8.2||-5.1||-33.4||-22.8||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||25.0||-13.0||-4.8||-19.9||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||15.9||16.3||17.5||20.2||16.1|
5 years of Oman economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.39||0.06 %||Jun 13|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jun 12|
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