Oman Economic Forecast

Oman Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

The economy has had a mixed few recent months. Oil prices through to early June have averaged above the USD 58 per barrel level that the government projected in its budget for 2019, while oil production increased slightly in January–April. Fiscal pressures should have consequently eased somewhat, although both Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings are still considering downgrading the sovereign credit ratings of cash-strapped Oman. Meanwhile, the non-hydrocarbon economy is seemingly strengthening, with total revenue recorded in the hotel industry rising by over 11% in annual terms in March; new tax exemptions effective 1 June for investors in the tourism sector could hurt the public purse, however.

Oman Economic Growth

The economy should largely maintain its momentum this year on robust government consumption and faster fixed investment growth. Economic growth should be particularly strong next year thanks to government plans to significantly raise investment in the Khazzan-Makarem gas field that year. That said, fragile public finances and OPEC+ efforts to constrain oil output hinder growth prospects. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists forecast growth of 2.1% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.

Oman Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)21,93521,78418,21416,64617,546
GDP (USD bn)78.881.068.866.772.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.05.1-0.6-0.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)  
Unemployment Rate17.116.415.815.816.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.3-1.2-19.0-26.0-11.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)4.94.912.831.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.390.390.390.390.39
Current Account (% of GDP)6.65.2-15.9-18.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.24.2-11.9-12.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)24.425.69.16.2-  
Exports (USD billion)56.453.535.627.5-  
Imports (USD billion)32.027.926.521.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)8.2-5.1-33.4-22.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)25.0-13.0-4.8-19.9-  
International Reserves (USD)15.916.317.520.216.1

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Oman Facts

Exchange Rate0.390.06 %Jun 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jun 12

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