Oman Economic Outlook
January 8, 2019The economy performed well in 2018, largely thanks to higher oil and natural gas production. From January to November, hydrocarbon output rose significantly compared to the same period a year earlier and translated into stronger public finances and exports. However, despite the improving economy, the government made little progress in improving its underlying finances and remains highly dependent on oil revenue. Although the fiscal deficit is expected to have decreased in 2018, Fitch Ratings downgraded the sovereign debt rating of Oman to BB+ from BBB- on 18 December, citing higher recent spending than expected and uncertainty linked to future oil revenues. Meanwhile, on 1 January the government unveiled its 2019 budget, which forecasts a small increase in spending that is just outpaced by revenue growth.
Oman Economic GrowthIncreased output from the Khazzan-Makarem gas field and higher fixed investment should support economic growth this year. Nevertheless, the economy still faces large fiscal imbalances. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists forecast growth of 3.2% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2020.
Oman Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||21,935||21,784||18,214||16,646||17,546|
|GDP (USD bn)||78.8||81.0||68.8||66.7||72.5|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||5.3||1.2||4.7||5.4||-|
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||6.0||5.1||-0.6||-0.6||-|
|Investment (annual variation in %)||12.4||2.4||1.1||-0.7||-|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||3.1||0.2||5.4||3.2||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-0.3||-1.2||-19.0||-26.0||-11.7|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||4.9||4.9||12.8||31.4||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.3||1.0||0.1||1.1||1.7|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||1.00||1.00||1.00||1.19||1.95|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||6.6||5.2||-15.9||-18.4||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||5.2||4.2||-11.9||-12.3||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||24.4||25.6||9.1||6.2||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||56.4||53.5||35.6||27.5||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||32.0||27.9||26.5||21.3||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||8.2||-5.1||-33.4||-22.8||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||25.0||-13.0||-4.8||-19.9||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||15.9||16.3||17.5||20.2||16.1|
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|Exchange Rate||0.39||0.06 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 30|
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