Norway Economic Forecast

Norway Economic Outlook

March 26, 2019

Fresh data has underlined the sturdiness of the Norwegian economy. Although economic growth slowed in 2018, the mainland economy, which excludes hydrocarbon extraction activity and related transport, grew at the fastest pace in four years due to robust private consumption. Private consumption was supported by a tighter labor market, with the unemployment rate falling to a four-year low, and high consumer confidence. In addition, the substantial increase in average oil prices in 2018 compared to 2017 strengthened both the country’s public finances and its external sector: the fiscal and current account surpluses both rose to four-year highs. Turning to 2019, consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in the first quarter, although it dipped slightly, and monthly GDP data showed both the total economy and mainland economy expanded in January compared to December.

Norway Economic Growth

Greater investment in the hydrocarbon industry should boost the economy this year, while a tighter labor market and lower corporate tax rates should support the mainland economy. On the other hand, tighter monetary policy, a slowdown in Europe and global trade tensions will likely weigh on prospects. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP expanding 2.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020. In terms of mainland GDP, our panelists see growth of 2.3% in 2019, which is also unchanged from last month’s projection, and 1.9% in 2020.

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Norway Facts

Bond Yield1.72-0.65 %Apr 12
Exchange Rate8.49-0.38 %Apr 12
Stock Market885-0.08 %Apr 12

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