Norway Economic Forecast

Norway Economic Outlook

July 24, 2018

Latest indicators suggest that the economy grew at a good pace in Q2, following a weak start to the year. Retail sales in May grew at the fastest pace since December 2017 amid a tight labor market and high wage growth. Moreover, data suggests that house prices bottomed out at the beginning of 2018 and are slowly recovering, as evidenced by price increases in Q2. The recovery in house prices has been supported by low interest rates and declining unemployment. Meanwhile, exports of goods increased at the fastest pace in over a year in Q2, buttressed by higher oil prices. However, complicating the economic picture for Q2 is industrial production, which contracted for the fourth consecutive month in May.

Norway Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a robust pace this year and next on the back of higher prices for Norwegian commodities such as oil and natural gas. The mainland economy—which excludes petroleum activities and related ocean transport—should benefit from a tight labor market and favorable credit conditions. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect total GDP to expand 2.1% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2019. Mainland GDP is expected to grow 2.4% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month, and 2.2% in 2019.

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Norway Facts

Bond Yield1.74-0.65 %Aug 15
Exchange Rate8.45-0.38 %Aug 15
Stock Market883-0.08 %Aug 15

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