Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

February 20, 2018

Economic momentum appears to have gained steam in recent months, led by the country’s non-oil sector. Industrial production improved in Q4, and consumer confidence also picked up. Furthermore, the PMI hit a multi-year high in January, pointing to solid dynamics in the country’s private sector. However, the energy sector is expected to have performed moderately, and the Central Bank stated that crude oil production declined somewhat in the fourth quarter. On a brighter note, parliament finally passed the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB) in January, the first part of an oil industry bill that will have taken nearly two decades to become law. The bill should increase transparency and improve oversight in the energy sector. Moreover, the government will now move on to passing the following pieces of legislation, which will focus on changing taxation to improve Nigeria’s attractiveness for investment.

Nigeria Economic Growth

The Met the why particular panel raised Nigeria’s growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points this month and now sees GDP expanding 2.6% in 2018. Higher oil prices should stimulate the country’s energy sector, while improved liquidity conditions will boost the overall economy. In 2019, GDP is seen expanding 3.1%.

Nigeria Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)165169174179184
GDP per capita (USD)2,7082,9443,1822,6771,976
GDP (USD bn)446498553479363
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.56.22.8-1.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.021.10.61.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)2.84.213.4-1.3-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.50.05.50.3-5.7
Unemployment Rate7.67.14.84.35.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-1.4-0.9-1.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.512.611.612.118.6
Money (annual variation in %)16.41.320.65.916.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.08.08.09.618.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)12.28.58.19.015.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0012.0013.0011.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)156.2160.0183.0199.1304.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)158.8159.2165.2197.9256.1
Current Account (% of GDP)4.24.00.2-3.20.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)18.920.11.3-15.42.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)11.943.821.0-6.4-0.5
Exports (USD billion)94.395.182.645.934.7
Imports (USD billion)53.451.461.652.335.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.90.8-13.2-44.4-24.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.1-3.819.9-15.0-32.7
International Reserves (USD)44.243.634.529.125.8
External Debt (% of GDP)1.51.81.82.23.1

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Nigeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.500.0 %Feb 22
Exchange Rate305.83.08 %Feb 22
Stock Market0.30.0 %Feb 21

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