Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

November 14, 2017

Incoming data suggests that activity firmed up in recent months, after the economy returned to growth in Q2. The PMI rose to the highest level since December 2014 in October. Higher oil prices along with a return to normal oil production after the completion of repair work earlier in the year should give a boost to export revenues. In early November, the government presented its 2018 budget, which focuses on stoking growth in the battered economy. The record NGN 8.6 trillion (approximately USD 28.2 billion) budget focuses on capital spending and targets a deficit of NGN 2.0 trillion, slightly down from the deficit in the 2017 budget. To fund the ambitious spending plans, President Muhammadu Buhari stated that the government would borrow over NGN 1.5 trillion, increasing the country’s debt burden. While developing badly-needed infrastructure could boost economic activity, the government has previously fallen short on both revenue and expenditure targets, generating uncertainty as to whether they will meet the 2018 goals. Moreover, the budget must still pass through both chambers of parliaments, a process that can take months and could delay implementation. The 2017 budget was not passed until the middle of the year.

Nigeria Economic Growth

Higher oil prices and output, combined with large-scale infrastructure projects, should boost growth next year. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 2.6%, unchanged from last month’s forecasts. In 2019, GDP is seen expanding 2.9%.

Nigeria Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)165169174179184
GDP per capita (USD)2,7082,9443,1822,6771,976
GDP (USD bn)446498553479363
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.56.22.8-1.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.021.10.61.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)2.84.213.4-1.3-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.50.05.50.3-5.7
Unemployment Rate7.67.14.84.35.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-1.4-0.9-1.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.512.611.612.118.6
Money (annual variation in %)16.41.320.65.916.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.08.08.09.618.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)12.28.58.19.015.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0012.0013.0011.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)156.2160.0183.0199.1304.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)158.8159.2165.2197.9256.1
Current Account (% of GDP)4.24.00.2-3.20.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)18.920.11.3-15.42.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)11.943.821.0-6.4-0.5
Exports (USD billion)94.395.182.645.934.7
Imports (USD billion)53.451.461.652.335.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.90.8-13.2-44.4-24.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.1-3.819.9-15.0-32.7
International Reserves (USD)44.243.634.529.125.8
External Debt (% of GDP)1.51.81.82.23.1

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Nigeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield14.660.0 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate306.33.08 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.30.0 %Dec 06

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