Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

April 24, 2018

The economy ended 2017 on a firmer note, with growth picking up to a two-year high in Q4. Activity is expected to have continued gaining steam in the first quarter of 2018, supported by higher oil prices and greater foreign exchange rate supply. Accordingly, recent economic data has pointed up, and the PMI rose to a record high in March. However, authorities have still not passed the 2018 budget, delaying its implementation and an expected boost in government spending. In the political arena, President Muhammadu Buhari stated on 9 April that he would seek his party’s nomination for the upcoming 2019 elections. The announcement sparked a negative market reaction, with stocks falling slightly. Buhari is 75 years old, and there are concerns over the state of his health.

Nigeria Economic Growth

Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth to accelerate in 2018 and clock in at 2.6%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. Higher oil prices, looser fiscal policy and improved FX allocation should support the economy’s momentum this year. That said, several challenges to growth still linger including exchange rate distortions, poor infrastructure and likely political tensions ahead of the February 2019 general elections. Next year, growth is seen increasing mildly to 3.1%.

Nigeria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)169174179184189
GDP per capita (USD)2,9443,1822,6771,976-  
GDP (USD bn)498553479363-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.56.22.8-1.6-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)21.10.61.5-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.213.4-1.3-  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.05.50.3-5.7-  
Unemployment Rate7.14.84.35.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-0.9-1.6-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.611.612.118.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)1.320.65.916.8-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.08.09.618.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.19.015.7-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0013.0011.0014.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)160.0183.0199.1304.7-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)159.2165.2197.9256.1-  
Current Account (% of GDP)4.00.2-3.20.8-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)20.11.3-15.42.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)43.821.0-6.4-0.5-  
Exports (USD billion)95.182.645.934.7-  
Imports (USD billion)51.461.652.335.2-  
Exports (annual variation in %)0.8-13.2-44.4-24.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.819.9-15.0-32.7-  
International Reserves (USD)43.634.529.125.8-  
External Debt (% of GDP)1.81.82.23.1-  

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Nigeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.330.0 %May 15
Exchange Rate305.63.08 %May 16
Stock Market0.30.0 %May 11

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