Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

Growth is expected to have picked up pace in the second quarter, after losing steam at the start of the year. The PMI came in at a historic high in June, rounding out the strongest quarter the index has ever recorded. In addition, firmer oil prices are supporting the energy sector and helping the government build international reserves—which hit the highest level in five years in June—to support its exchange rate regime. On the political front, Nigeria’s All Progressives Congress, the ruling party, unseated the opposition in regional elections in Ekiti state on 14 July. The result bodes well for President Muhammadu Buhari’s reelection bid, as the vote was regarded as a test of the electorate’s mood ahead of presidential and parliamentary votes in February. Political uncertainty had risen after a faction from within the ruling party splintered away at the start of July, declaring it no longer supports Buhari and will challenge him in next year’s election.

Nigeria Economic Growth

Higher oil prices, improved liquidity and increased public spending in the run-up to the 2019 elections should fuel faster growth this year. However, political uncertainty, as well as security concerns, continues to pose risks to economic activity. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to increase 2.4% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last year’s projection. Next year, growth is seen rising to 2.9%.

Nigeria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)169174179184189
GDP per capita (USD)3,0823,3122,7662,2061,995
GDP (USD bn)522576494115376
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.56.22.8-1.60.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)21.20.5-0.4-3.7-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.913.40.6-6.8-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.16.0-3.4-9.4-3.6
Unemployment Rate3.74.64.37.17.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-0.9-1.6-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.913.116.019.623.4
Money (annual variation in %)1.320.65.817.81.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.08.09.618.615.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.19.015.716.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0013.0011.0014.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)155.2167.5196.5304.5305.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)155.3156.5192.6253.2305.3
Current Account (% of GDP)3.70.2-3.10.72.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)19.20.9-15.42.711.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)43.821.0-6.4-0.513.1
Exports (USD billion)95.182.645.934.745.8
Imports (USD billion)51.461.652.335.232.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.8-13.2-44.4-24.432.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.819.9-15.0-32.7-7.3
International Reserves (USD)43.634.529.125.838.8
External Debt (% of GDP)1.71.72.22.85.0

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Nigeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield14.470.0 %Aug 15
Exchange Rate305.53.08 %Aug 15
Stock Market0.10.0 %Aug 15

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