Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

September 19, 2017

Nigeria’s recovery is firming up, according to recently released data. Growth in Q2 was underpinned by a stronger oil industry and another quarter of tepid expansion in the non-oil sector. Oil production averaged 1.84 million barrels per day in Q2, up substantially from Q1. However, this positive trend could be reversed by the tensions which continue to rumble in the oil-producing Niger Delta region; militants recently threatened to renew attacks on the oil infrastructure unless the government takes steps to improve the quality of life for locals. Aside from uncertainties in the oil industry, there are encouraging economic signs so far in the third quarter, and the PMI reached a multi-year high in August thanks to a robust domestic market and strong growth in output and new orders. Last month, the Central Bank unified some parallel exchange rates in a bid to simplify the FX system, although a significant gap between the official and interbank rates remains.

Nigeria Economy Data

Population (million)165169174179184
GDP per capita (USD)2,7082,9443,1822,6771,976
GDP (USD bn)446498553479363
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)  
Investment (annual variation in %)  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate7.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-1.4-0.9-1.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.512.611.612.118.6
Money (annual variation in %)16.41.320.65.916.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0012.0013.0011.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)156.2160.0183.0199.1304.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)158.8159.2165.2197.9256.1
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)18.920.11.3-15.42.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)11.943.821.0-6.4-0.5
Exports (USD billion)94.395.182.645.934.7
Imports (USD billion)53.451.461.652.335.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.90.8-13.2-44.4-24.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.1-3.819.9-15.0-32.7
International Reserves (USD)44.243.634.529.125.8
External Debt (% of GDP)

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Nigeria Facts

Bond Yield14.960.0 %Oct 13
Exchange Rate305.4-0.13 %Oct 13
Stock Market0.30.0 %Oct 12

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Nigeria Economic Growth

September 19, 2017

Growth should increase next year thanks to greater oil production and higher oil prices. However, continuing foreign exchange distortions, rampant corruption and domestic policy uncertainty mean the expansion will likely be meager, and too low to put a significant dent in the unemployment and poverty rates. Panelists participating in the Met the why particular Consensus Forecast expect the economy to grow 1.2% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Nigeria Economic News

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