Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Forecast

January 8, 2019

Growth gathered steam in the third quarter, buttressed by a pick-up in fixed investment–likely helped by recent reforms to attract FDI–and higher inventories, coupled with a modest acceleration of both public and private consumption expenditures. However, the external sector dragged on growth due to a marked slowdown of exports. In addition, available data suggests the economy slowed in the fourth quarter, weighed on by weaker activity in the industrial sector–and notably by a fall in mining and quarrying output amid a lull in phosphate demand.

Morocco Economic Growth

Economic momentum should accelerate slightly this year and next. Robust tourist inflows, recent business-friendly reforms and resilient activity in key industrial sectors such as automotive and mining will support growth, although high youth unemployment will continue to be a key weakness. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 3.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2020.

Morocco Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)33.433.834.134.534.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,1433,3462,9763,0123,119
GDP (USD bn)115113112114119
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.52.74.51.24.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.23.12.33.44.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.5-1.30.29.3-0.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.91.31.62.12.6
Unemployment Rate9.29.79.69.99.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.1-4.7-4.2-4.0-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)61.763.463.764.764.5
Money (annual variation in %)2.75.07.06.37.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.41.60.61.81.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.90.41.61.60.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.002.502.502.252.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.169.069.9211.129.35
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.418.419.759.819.71
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.9-5.7-2.1-4.2-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-8.5-6.6-2.2-4.4-3.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-23.6-21.2-14.7-17.8-18.2
Exports (USD billion)22.020.518.718.921.4
Imports (USD billion)45.641.733.436.739.6
Exports (annual variation in %)2.9-7.0-8.91.313.1
Imports (annual variation in %)1.8-8.7-19.89.88.0
International Reserves (USD)18.820.222.725.026.1
External Debt (% of GDP)37.938.843.145.548.1

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Morocco Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.740.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate9.53-0.29 %Jan 30
Stock Market11,428-0.23 %Jan 30

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