Morocco Economic Forecast

Morocco Economic Forecast

June 4, 2019

Growth was likely subdued in Q1 due to a decline in the agricultural sector, which suffered from a high base effect. FDI inflows also tumbled, while remittances decreased, likely dampening investment and private consumption growth. Moreover, nominal trade data indicates weak momentum, as export growth was meek despite strong demand for goods—owing to a contraction of service exports. On the flipside, broadly flat imports led to a narrowing of the trade deficit, and public finances improved in Q1. Lastly, the labor market tightened, supported mainly by job gains in the service sector. The economic picture will likely be similar in Q2, as a further fall in agricultural output is poised to dampen solid momentum elsewhere.

Morocco Economic Growth

Growth should be broadly stable this year. On the one hand, strong tourism and solid private consumption will power momentum, while reforms to attract FDI in key sectors should support investment. On the other, a mediocre harvest will weigh on growth, and weak activity in the Eurozone remains a main downside risk to the outlook. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 2.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2020.

Morocco Economy Data

Population (million)33.433.834.134.534.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,1433,3462,9763,0123,119
GDP (USD bn)115113112114119
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.5-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate9.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.1-4.7-4.2-4.0-3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)61.763.463.764.764.5
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.002.502.502.252.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.418.419.759.819.71
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.9-5.7-2.1-4.2-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-8.5-6.6-2.2-4.4-3.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-23.6-21.2-14.7-17.8-18.2
Exports (USD billion)22.020.518.718.921.4
Imports (USD billion)45.641.733.436.739.6
Exports (annual variation in %)2.9-7.0-8.91.313.1
Imports (annual variation in %)1.8-8.7-
International Reserves (USD)18.820.222.725.026.1
External Debt (% of GDP)37.938.843.145.548.1

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Morocco Facts

Bond Yield3.380.0 %May 31
Exchange Rate9.63-0.29 %Jun 13
Stock Market11,968-0.23 %Jun 13

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