Mexico GDP Q3 2015

Mexico

Mexico: GDP accelerated in Q3 due to strong domestic demand

December 18, 2015

Mexico’s economy gained momentum in the third quarter, with growth benefiting from strong domestic demand and healthy performance in the external sector, despite global headwinds. GDP increased 2.6% in Q3 over the same period of the previous year, which came in above the 2.4% expansion observed in Q2 and the 2.4% the markets had expected.

Domestic demand, particularly private consumption, was the main contributor to GDP acceleration in Q3. Private spending grew a healthy 2.9% in Q3, which came in a notch above the 2.8% increase in Q2. Government consumption, on the other hand, decelerated in Q3, when it expanded 1.1% (Q2: +2.6% year-on-year). Moreover, gross fixed capital formation slowed from a 5.5% expansion in Q2 to a 4.1% increase in Q3.

The contribution from net exports to overall economic growth was virtually unchanged in Q3. The contribution inched down from 1.3 percentage points in Q2 to 1.2 percentage points in Q3. Imports of goods and services expanded 6.2%, which was faster that the growth rate registered in Q2 (+5.4% yoy). Exports expanded a notable 11.0% in Q3, which came in above the 9.3% expansion tallied in Q2.

A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborated that Mexico’s economy improved in the third quarter. GDP increased 0.8% in Q3 in seasonally-adjusted terms, which was faster than the 0.6% expansion observed in Q2.

The government expects the economy to grow between 2.6% and 3.6% in 2016. Mexico’s Central Bank expects the economy to have expanded between 1.7% and 2.5% this year. For 2016, the Bank sees the economy growing between 2.5% and 3.5%. According to the latest survey of analysts for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast, panelists see the economy increasing 2.8% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel expects growth to pick up to 3.2%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Mexico GDP Q3 2015 1

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistics Institute (INEGI)


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