Mexico Economic Outlook
August 7, 2018Disappointing second-quarter growth confirmed the many challenges facing the economy in the run-up to the 1 July general election, which Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and his left-wing MORENA-led coalition won in a landslide. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the services sector was resilient in the face of cool consumer sentiment amid political uncertainty and the wild volatility of the peso. Industrial output, however, contracted on weaker construction activity, although manufacturing metrics appear to have been buoyed by the weaker peso. Meanwhile, weak momentum heading into the third quarter translated into mixed data for July. Nevertheless, in the weeks since AMLO’s victory, the economic landscape has improved considerably; AMLO has since been embraced by the business leaders that once denounced him, and the prospect of new faces has given NAFTA negotiators room to walk back their hard lines.
Mexico Economic GrowthHousehold spending and exports are expected to drive growth this year. Tight job markets—both domestically and stateside—and improved private-sector lending should support private consumption, while healthy factory output in the U.S. should bolster manufacturing exports. Uncertainty over NAFTA continues to weigh heavily on investment prospects, although the odds of reaching a deal have improved in recent weeks. On politics, most analysts currently expect AMLO to govern as a centrist. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 2.2% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2019, panelists see growth stable at 2.2%.
Mexico Economy Data
5 years of Mexico economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||7.91||-0.24 %||Aug 15|
|Exchange Rate||19.14||-0.29 %||Aug 15|
|Stock Market||48,557||0.12 %||Aug 15|
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Mexico Economic News
August 3, 2018
Consumer sentiment jumped in July on the heels of the 1 July general election, with the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by INEGI hitting a decade-high 111.7 points, up from a revised 88.6 points in June (previously reported: 88.0 points).
August 2, 2018
At its 2 August monetary policy meeting, Banxico’s five-member board voted unanimously to hold the target rate at 7.75% after previously hiking rates ahead of the 1 July general election, a move broadly in line with market expectations.
August 1, 2018
Remittances totaled USD 3.1 billion in June (May: USD 3.2 billion), a robust 23.1% increase from the same month last year, accelerating from the revised 17.1% rise registered in May (previously reported: +19.8% year-on-year).
July 31, 2018
A preliminary estimate for economic activity in the second quarter confirmed the challenges facing the economy in the run-up to the 1 July general election, with growth in the quarter coming up short against market expectations.
July 27, 2018
Merchandise trade recorded a USD 0.9 billion deficit in June (May: USD 1.6 billion deficit), widening markedly from the USD 0.0 billion trade balance registered in June 2017.