Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

December 7, 2017

A second release showed that economic growth was slightly weaker than originally reported in Q3, with activity severely dampened by earthquake- and hurricane-related disruptions and weaker private spending growth. Households are increasingly feeling the pressure of multi-year high inflation and decelerating credit lending growth, with retail sales contracting for a second consecutive month in September. Incoming data for Q4 remains mixed: Manufacturing exports regained traction in October following September’s trough, but inflation was higher than expected in the first half of November and fueled concerns about unchecked price pressures. On the political front, Jose Antonio Meade resigned as Finance Minister in late November to become the 2018 presidential candidate for ruling party PRI. Meanwhile, the fifth round of NAFTA negotiations that concluded on 21 November failed to yield any significant progress on contentious issues. The sixth round is slated to begin on 11 December in Washington.

Mexico Economic Growth

A clouded political outlook ahead of next year’s presidential elections and lingering uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations will continue to keep a lid on economic growth. That said, growth is expected to accelerate in 2018 due to a rebound in capital expenditure and a more supportive fiscal stance. The Met the why particular Consensus Forecast for 2018 was downgraded 0.1 percentage points this month to 2.2%, and analysts expect GDP to increase 2.4% in 2019.

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Mexico Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.31-0.24 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate18.87-0.29 %Dec 06
Stock Market46,9730.12 %Dec 06

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