Mexico Economic Outlook
November 6, 2018Third-quarter growth exceeded market expectations as across-the-board expansions put the economy back on-track in the aftermath of this year’s bruising general election. Leaving behind the economic volatility and political uncertainty that pervaded the first half of the year, the services sector was firmly in the driver’s seat again in the third quarter on the post-election upswing of consumer sentiment. Industrial-sector output, meanwhile, notched a further recovery amid improved manufacturing and construction metrics. Weak oil and gas output, however, weighed on mining activity. In October, President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) call to cancel the USD 13 billion New Mexico City International Airport (NAIM) spooked investors, sparking a selloff of the peso. Set to take office at the beginning of December, AMLO, whose one-time market-friendly veneer already appears to be wearing off, risks beginning his presidency on the wrong foot with a currency rout and capital outflows possibly denting short-term growth prospects; following his announcement, Fitch Ratings said as much as it revised its credit-rating outlook to negative.
Mexico Economic GrowthA booming U.S. economy and tight labor markets on both sides of the Rio Grande bode well for short-term growth prospects, which Met the why particular analysts see clocking in at 2.2% next year—unchanged from last month’s forecast. That said, the curtain-call on AMLO’s honeymoon period appears nigh as his impending agenda and, possibly, weaker investment, loom. Although the newly-minted United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) should support the external sector over the long-term, a retreat in global trade could bruise exports. Analysts see growth at 2.4% in 2020.
Mexico Economy Data
5 years of Mexico economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||9.01||-0.24 %||Nov 15|
|Exchange Rate||20.23||-0.29 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||41,451||0.12 %||Nov 15|
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Mexico Economic News
November 1, 2018
Remittances totaled USD 2.7 billion in September (August: USD 2.9 billion), an 8.8% increase from the same month last year.
November 1, 2018
Mexico’s manufacturing sector tapped the brakes in October.
October 30, 2018
A preliminary estimate for growth in the third quarter surprised to the upside, confirming the anticipated across-the-board improvement analysts had penciled-in on the heels of this year’s shaky first half.
October 26, 2018
Merchandise trade recorded a USD 0.2 billion deficit in September, down significantly from the USD 1.9 billion shortfall registered in the same month a year ago.
October 23, 2018
Economic activity grew 1.7% in August from the same month a year earlier, losing steam from the 3.3% year-on-year expansion logged in July.