Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

October 11, 2017

The economy’s better-than-expected performance in H1 was due to resilient household consumption and renewed momentum in the manufacturing sector. However, leading data suggests some of the tailwinds that boosted growth in H1 faded in Q3. Although August’s trade report and PMI indicators for the July-to-September period still paint a bright picture of the manufacturing sector, data for consumption suggests the long-touted moderation in private spending may have finally arrived. Retail sales barely expanded for a second consecutive month in July, while auto sales continued to contract through August, reaffirming the narrative that multi-year high inflation is denting households’ real income growth despite a tight labor market and robust remittance inflows. Q3 growth will also reflect the economic impact of the two earthquakes that devastated Mexico in September, although reconstruction efforts are expected to shore up economic activity in the quarters to come.

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Mexico Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.131.14 %Oct 13
Exchange Rate18.910.04 %Oct 13
Stock Market49,9820.04 %Oct 13

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Mexico Economic Growth

October 11, 2017

The economic outlook remains clouded by uncertainty linked to the renegotiation of NAFTA and the elections scheduled in Mexico for next July. While resilient in H1, GDP growth should moderate in H2 due to the immediate effects of the earthquake on economic activity and slower private consumption growth. Our panel expects growth of 2.2% in 2017. Next year, the economy is expected to benefit from stronger government consumption ahead of the election and softer inflation. Panelists see GDP growth at 2.3% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

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