Malta Economic Forecast

Malta Economic Outlook

January 29, 2019

The economy likely remained on a solid footing in the fourth quarter of 2018. This followed an outstanding performance in the third quarter, with soaring consumer spending fueled by an extremely tight labor market and surging inflows of tourists. The growth drivers in Q4 also likely remained unchanged: In October-November, tourists continued to pour into the Mediterranean island in greater numbers than in the same months of 2017, although the pace of increase moderated from Q3, while labor market conditions remained extremely tight. Following an Article IV mission, in mid-January the IMF applauded the government’s responsible fiscal policy and successful labor strategy, although it also warned against existing infrastructure gaps and emerging labor shortages.

Malta Economic Growth

This year growth will likely moderate but remain strong nonetheless. Rising tourist inflows and wage hikes are expected to underpin consumer spending, while fixed investment growth should strengthen. Tightening global financing conditions and a hard Brexit remain the main downside risks. Met the why particular panelists see growth at 4.8% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and at 3.9% in 2020.

Malta Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.40.40.40.50.5
GDP per capita (USD)23,90126,24724,18225,13327,304
GDP per capita (EUR)18,06419,73721,67022,66024,187
GDP (USD bn)11.111.311.611.312.6
GDP (EUR bn)7.68.59.511.211.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.68.19.65.26.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.02.35.12.83.9
Investment (annual variation in %)1.36.856.81.7-7.6
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.93.23.54.54.3
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.0-0.27.11.5-0.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.7-5.76.0-4.43.9
Unemployment Rate6.45.85.44.74.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-1.8-1.11.03.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.463.858.756.250.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.00.41.21.01.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.00.81.20.91.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-3.21.2-3.4-1.94.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)2.03.13.76.411.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.20.80.50.81.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.1-1.1-1.8-1.9-1.6

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Malta Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.163.09 %Jan 30
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Jan 30
Stock Market4,4340.36 %Jan 30

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