Luxembourg Economic Forecast

Luxembourg Economic Outlook

January 29, 2019

Luxembourg’s economy began the year in better shape than in 2018 on the heels of what appeared to be solid third (Q3: +0.6% quarter-on-quarter s.a.) and fourth-quarter outturns. On the supply side, non-financials drove growth in the third quarter as growing apprehension held back financial-sector gains. On the demand side, household spending accelerated in line with the fall in unemployment and elevated consumer confidence, while fixed investment contracted for a third quarter on fewer aircraft and satellite purchases. Looking at the fourth quarter, meanwhile, a weaker European backdrop appeared to contribute to slower growth through year-end.

Luxembourg Economic Growth

Resilient economic sentiment and low inflation should sustain broad-based growth this year. A shakier global economy presents uncertainty, however, and increased financial-sector volatility could eat into the real sector’s momentum. Household debt and financial-services exports will remain downside and upside risks, respectively, over the forecast horizon. Analysts see growth at 3.1% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

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Luxembourg Facts

Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Jan 30
Stock Market7230.19 %Jan 30

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