Lebanon Economic Outlook
January 8, 2019As anxiety spikes over Lebanon’s economic and financial situation, both Moody’s and Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s outlook to negative in December. Recent data remains underwhelming amid prolonged political impasse. Seven months after the general elections, cabinet posts remain unfilled and a swift resolution to the stalemate is necessary to kickstart the economy and unlock donor funds, especially pertinent given the high public debt and large twin deficits. In the third quarter, construction permits and cement deliveries decreased sharply, while the trade deficit widened and the money supply continued to contract noticeably. Moreover, although the trade deficit narrowed year-on-year in October, construction permits and cement deliveries dropped and the money supply fell yet again in the same month.
Lebanon Economic GrowthLarge twin deficits, a large public debt burden, a possible slowdown in the construction sector and delays in forming a new government all cloud the outlook. Against this gloomy backdrop, Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 2.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.
Lebanon Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||11,371||11,802||11,188||11,293||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||45.9||47.8||49.5||50.4||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.6||2.0||0.8||1.0||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-8.7||-6.0||-7.3||-9.2||-7.3|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||138||139||142||151||153|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||1.1||-0.7||-3.4||3.1||5.0|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||4.8||1.9||-3.8||-0.8||4.5|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,508||1,508||1,508||1,508||1,508|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-26.7||-28.1||-19.6||-23.3||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-15.3||-17.5||-15.0||-15.4||-15.9|
|Exports (USD billion)||5.2||4.5||4.0||3.9||4.0|
|Imports (USD billion)||20.5||22.1||19.0||19.4||19.9|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-7.9||-12.2||-12.5||-1.3||2.4|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||0.8||7.7||-14.1||2.1||2.8|
|International Reserves (USD)||36.7||39.5||38.8||43.3||43.5|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||67.4||62.6||62.4||63.4||-|
5 years of Lebanon economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||1,508||0.0 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||949||0.37 %||Jan 30|
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