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Latvia: Revised data show faster GDP growth in Q3

December 8, 2015

Latvia’s economic growth in Q3 was faster than previously reported. According to the more complete data released by the national statistical office on 8 December, GDP increased 3.3% in Q3 over the same quarter last year. The print was revised up from the 2.5% increase released in a flash estimate and marked an acceleration over the 2.7% expansion tallied in the previous quarter. Q3’s result represented the fastest increase since Q3 2013.

Domestic demand showed strong growth and was the main driver behind Q3’s acceleration. Total consumption expanded a strong 4.9% annually in Q3 (Q2: +2.6% year-on-year), buttressed by a notable increase in private consumption (Q3: +5.2% yoy; Q2: +2.4% yoy) and healthy increase in government spending (Q3: +3.7% yoy; Q2: +3.3% yoy). In addition, fixed investment expanded 6.4% annually in Q3, which came in well above the 2.9% expansion tallied in Q2.

On the external front, exports of goods and services increased 1.1% in Q3, which was up from the 0.8% rise observed in Q2. Imports accelerated from a 2.6% increase in Q2 to a 4.3% in Q3, which marked the fastest pace since Q2 2012.

A quarter-on-quarter comparison showed that GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 1.0% in Q3, which marked a moderation over the 1.3% increase observed in Q2.

The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 3.0%. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 3.0% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2017, panelists expect the economy to expand 3.3%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Latvia GDP Q3 2015 0

Note: Year-on year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistics Bureau and Met the why particular Consensus Forecast.


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