Korea Economic Forecast

Korea Economic Outlook

March 20, 2018

Recent indicators point to an economy in good shape so far in 2018, following the slowdown in year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter last year. In February, consumer confidence declined month-on-month, but continued to indicate healthy optimism. Moreover, although annual export growth decelerated in February due to fewer working days, it nonetheless beat market expectations. Meanwhile, on 15 March, the government announced it would submit an extra budget bill to parliament for this fiscal year in April. The bill will include USD 3.8 billion in additional spending aimed at reducing youth unemployment. On the diplomatic front, there has been a flurry of activity in recent weeks concerning the Korean Peninsula. For the first time ever, the North Korean leader met with senior South Korean officials earlier this month. He also reportedly agreed to meet with the South Korean president in April before attending a tentatively-scheduled meeting with the U.S. president in May.

Korea Economic Growth

Increased government spending should boost the economy this year. Moreover, reduced geopolitical tension on the Korean peninsula could also translate into improved consumer and business confidence. However, high household debt and recent government measures to tame rising housing prices could weigh on economic prospects. Met the why particular panelists forecast the economy to grow 3.0% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2019.

Korea Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)50.050.2-  -  -  
Population (million)50.050.2-  -  -  
GDP per capita (USD)24,54326,004-  -  -  
GDP per capita (USD)24,54326,004-  -  -  
GDP (USD bn)1,2271,306-  -  -  
GDP (USD bn)1,2271,306-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.32.9-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.32.9-  -  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.91.9-  -  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.91.9-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.53.3-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.53.3-  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.50.7-  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.50.7-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.41.1-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.41.1-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate3.23.1-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate3.23.1-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.31.0-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.133.8-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.31.0-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.133.8-  -  -  
Money (annual variation in %)4.84.6-  -  -  
Money (annual variation in %)4.84.6-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.41.1-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.41.1-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.21.3-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.21.3-  -  -  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.7-1.6-  -  -  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.7-1.6-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.752.50-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.752.50-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)9.40.7-  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)9.40.7-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,1271,095-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,1271,095-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,0711,055-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,0711,055-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)4.16.2-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)4.16.2-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)50.881.1-  -  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)28.344.0-  -  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)28.344.0-  -  -  
Exports (USD billion)548560-  -  -  
Exports (USD billion)548560-  -  -  
Imports (USD billion)520516-  -  -  
Imports (USD billion)520516-  -  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.32.1-  -  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.32.1-  -  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.9-0.8-  -  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.9-0.8-  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)327346-  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)327346-  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)33.332.4-  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)33.332.4-  -  -  

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Korea Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.671.55 %Apr 20
Exchange Rate1,0670.21 %Apr 20
Stock Market2,476-0.11 %Apr 20

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