Kenya Economic Forecast

Kenya Economic Outlook

September 19, 2017

Heightened political uncertainties following the Supreme Court’s decision on 1 September to invalidate the results of the 8 August election, along with a devastating ongoing drought, continue to damage Kenya’s economic prospects. Economic activity in the private sector was hit by a slump in demand amid escalating concerns over prolonged instability, reflected by a plunge in the PMI, which dropped to a record low in August as unemployment continues to climb. The nation was recently struck by fears of a famine as the drought—which has ravaged the north of the country since the start of the year—worsened, impacting an estimated 5.6 million people. On 7 September, the United Nations and its humanitarian partners made an appeal for USD 116 million to step up relief efforts. Moreover, with only a few weeks to go until a re-run of the election on 17 October, political turmoil is intensifying as infighting over who should be held accountable for last month’s tainted election embroiled the national electoral commission.

Kenya Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)11.741.843.044.245.5
GDP per capita (USD)1,2431,3221,4331,4271,558
GDP (USD bn)50.655.361.663.170.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.55.95.45.75.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.78.54.65.14.8
Investment (annual variation in %)12.71.214.86.7-9.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.15.45.36.16.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.0-6.8-7.0-9.6-8.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.144.545.950.453.5
Money (annual variation in %)17.213.818.612.84.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.27.26.08.06.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.45.76.96.66.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.008.508.5011.5011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)86.0086.4590.55112.3112.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)84.5386.1387.9598.27111.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.4-8.1-9.8-6.8-5.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.3-4.5-6.0-4.3-3.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.2-11.5-12.4-11.1-7.9
Exports (USD billion)6.15.96.15.95.7
Imports (USD billion)16.316.418.515.913.6
Exports (annual variation in %)7.0-3.62.7-3.4-2.4
Imports (annual variation in %)11.00.412.6-13.8-14.4
International Reserves (USD)5.76.67.97.57.6
External Debt (% of GDP)23.524.827.130.4-  

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Kenya Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.200.0 %Oct 13
Exchange Rate113.30.05 %Oct 13
Stock Market0.20.0 %Oct 12

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Kenya Economic Growth

September 19, 2017

Political tensions and social unrest are likely to persist after the election. Combined with the adverse effects of the ongoing drought, they will continue weighing heavily on economic activity and likely keep growth momentum muted into next year. Our panelists expect GDP growth to slow to 4.8% in 2017. The panel downgraded its forecast for 2018 by 0.2 percentage points and projects growth of 5.3% in 2018.

Kenya Economic News

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