Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

The Minister of National Economy stated that the economy grew around 4.0% last year at a recent government meeting, according to local media reports. While official data has yet to be released, the reading would mark a notable jump from the 1.1% and 1.2% expansions in 2016 and 2015, respectively, if confirmed. Growth was likely driven by an upturn in oil prices in the second half of 2017, which resulted in a substantial boon for the oil sector and a ramp up in production to cash in on bigger profit margins. Activity was also supported by Russia’s exit from recession, which fueled higher demand for exports; Russia is one of Kazakhstan’s top trading partners. Retail sales bounced back in the year, growing at a markedly higher average rate compared to the previous year. In addition, a significant drop in inflationary pressures from 2016 boosted households’ real purchasing power and shored up private consumption.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

The economy is set to expand at a steady pace this year thanks to rising exports, a pick-up in domestic demand amid an expected fall in inflation, and higher inflows of investment. Growth is expected to hover below pre-crisis levels, however, as the commodity-dependent economy remains susceptible to external shocks. Diversifying the economy and improving financial stability by reducing the share of non-performing loans on banks’ balance sheets are much-needed reforms. Met the why particular panelists project 3.4% growth in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% growth in 2019.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)16.917.217.417.717.9
GDP per capita (USD)12,19013,58812,4786,7887,636
GDP per capita (EUR)9,2469,86011,3126,2497,211
GDP (USD bn)206233217120137
GDP (EUR bn)156169180111130
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.86.04.21.21.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.012.61.51.81.1
Investment (annual variation in %)9.14.94.44.23.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.62.30.2-1.6-1.2
Unemployment Rate5.35.25.05.14.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-2.0-2.7-2.2-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.312.314.322.125.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)7.31.5-8.27.946.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.04.87.413.68.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.15.86.76.614.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.506.5016.0012.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)150.4154.4182.9311.6333.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)149.2152.2179.4223.3342.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)198.5212.2221.2369.9350.9
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)191.8202.2238.3247.5378.6
Current Account (% of GDP)0.50.52.8-2.8-6.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.11.26.1-5.1-8.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)38.134.836.212.79.4
Exports (USD billion)86.985.680.346.537.3
Imports (USD billion)48.850.844.133.827.9
Exports (annual variation in %)2.0-1.5-6.2-42.1-19.8
Imports (annual variation in %)20.94.1-13.3-23.2-17.7
International Reserves (USD)28.324.729.227.929.5
External Debt (% of GDP)66.464.372.5128119

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Kazakhstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate320.50.32 %Feb 22
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 22

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