Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
June 4, 2019National accounts revealed that the economy lost momentum in the first quarter. Manufacturing activity languished in the doldrums on a slowdown in key trading partners, while electricity supply swung to decline and the expansion of the services sector softened. Turning to the second quarter, a 4.1% rise in the short-term economic indicator for January–April suggests growth remained solid at the start of the period. The expansion was fueled by higher oil prices and a likely boost in exports, thanks to a weaker tenge, which should have kept the current account in surplus. This countered the impact of a continued weakening in the industrial sector. Prevailing uncertainty on the political front ahead of the 9 June snap election, however, has spurred sizable capital outflows, which has in turn led to depletion of reserves and a further depreciation of the tenge.
Kazakhstan Economic GrowthReduced oil output, due to overhauls at the three main oil fields, is expected to soften the economy’s expansion this year, while challenging external conditions weigh on export growth. Domestic demand should remain buoyant, however, with the fiscal stimulus program buttressing private consumption and looser credit conditions boosting fixed investment. Met the why particular analysts expect GDP to increase 3.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.5% again in 2020.
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|Exchange Rate||384.2||0.32 %||Jun 13|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jun 12|
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Kazakhstan Economic News
June 4, 2019
Acting President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is on course to win the snap election scheduled for 9 June, with the tightly controlled and opaque electoral process meaning that opposition candidates stand little chance.
June 3, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.6% over the previous month in May, slightly above April’s 0.5% month-on-month upturn.
June 3, 2019
The National Bank of Kazakhstan held the base rate at 9.00%, with an interest rate corridor of plus or minus 1.0 percentage point, at its latest monetary policy meeting on 3 June.
May 20, 2019
Economic growth declined to 3.8% in annual terms in January–March, from the 4.1% year-on-year expansion recorded in January–December 2018, according to a preliminary estimate released on 20 May. A breakdown of key sectors revealed that industry grew at a notably softer pace of 3.2% in January–March, down from 4.2% in January–December 2018.
May 17, 2019
The industrial sector decelerated notably in April, growing 1.9% over the same day last month.