Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

A preliminary estimate shows that GDP expanded 4.3% in annual terms in the January–September period, matching the year-on-year growth recorded in January–June. While a breakdown by expenditure has yet to be released, the first estimate on a production basis indicates that accelerations in the industrial and service sectors underpinned the print. Exports rose at a double-digit rate in the period. Recent data, however, suggests that the economy’s steady growth rate was not sustained at the outset of the fourth quarter. In October, annual growth in industrial production plummeted, caused by a broad-based slowdown, spearheaded by a sharp drop in the mining sub-sector’s pace of expansion. Retail sales also grew at a slower annual rate. On 14 November, Energy Minister Kanat Bozumbayev declared that the Kashagan oil field will fall short of meeting its production target of 370 thousand barrels per day by the end of the year. It will yield an estimated 250 thousand barrels per day instead, due to failed efforts to reinject gas into reservoirs, which is necessary to boost oil production.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

Increased trade with China, Russia and the Euro area should boost exports and continue to support strong growth in the industrial sector, which together with healthy private consumption, should keep the economy on a solid expansion path. A sustained risk to the outlook, however, is the high level of non-performing loans in the banking sector. Met the why particular panelists project 3.3% growth in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and expects growth to rise to 3.5% in 2019.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

Population (million)16.917.217.417.717.9
GDP per capita (USD)12,19013,58812,4786,7887,636
GDP per capita (EUR)9,2469,86011,3126,2497,211
GDP (USD bn)206233217120137
GDP (EUR bn)156169180111130
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate5.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-2.0-2.7-2.2-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.312.314.322.125.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)7.31.5-8.27.946.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.506.5016.0012.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)150.4154.4182.9311.6333.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)149.2152.2179.4223.3342.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)198.5212.2221.2369.9350.9
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)191.8202.2238.3247.5378.6
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)38.134.836.212.79.4
Exports (USD billion)86.985.680.346.537.3
Imports (USD billion)48.850.844.133.827.9
Exports (annual variation in %)2.0-1.5-6.2-42.1-19.8
Imports (annual variation in %)20.94.1-13.3-23.2-17.7
International Reserves (USD)28.324.729.227.929.5
External Debt (% of GDP)66.464.372.5128119

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Kazakhstan Facts

Exchange Rate334.00.32 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 06

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