Jordan Economic Outlook
June 4, 2019The economy appears to have finally turned a corner in the first quarter. In March, industrial output increased for the second consecutive month and at the fastest pace since November 2017, thanks to greater manufacturing and electricity output, and despite falling quarrying production. Moreover, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed noticeably in Q1 in annual terms, as exports rose on the back of increased clothing shipments, while imports decreased on a fall in oil purchases. Meanwhile, on 9 May, Prime Minister Razzaz reshuffled his cabinet in an attempt to strengthen his mandate to accelerate economic reforms. Three days prior, the IMF stressed that it was “critical” Jordan pursues reforms to reduce both the fiscal deficit and costs of doing business.
Jordan Economic GrowthThe economy should gather speed this year thanks to improved trading links with Iraq and Syria; greater gas supplies from neighboring countries, particularly Egypt, which should lower electricity costs; and strong tourism activity. Fiscal consolidation and expected tighter monetary policy, however, pose downside risks to growth. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.3% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.
Jordan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||5,145||5,367||5,498||5,541||5,619|
|GDP (USD bn)||33.6||35.8||37.5||38.7||11.1|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.8||3.1||2.4||2.0||2.0|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||1.6||1.7||0.9||-2.1||-0.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.5||-2.3||-3.5||-3.2||-2.6|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||86.7||89.0||93.4||95.1||95.3|
|Money (annual variation in %)||9.7||6.9||8.1||4.0||0.3|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||4.8||2.9||-0.9||-0.8||3.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||4.50||4.25||3.75||3.75||5.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-11.4||-7.3||-9.1||-9.6||-11.6|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-3.5||-2.6||-3.4||-3.7||-4.3|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-11.7||-12.0||-11.3||-9.6||-11.7|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.9||8.4||7.8||7.6||7.5|
|Imports (USD billion)||19.6||20.4||18.2||17.2||18.1|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||0.2||6.0||-6.6||-3.7||-1.1|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||6.0||4.0||-11.7||-5.7||5.7|
|International Reserves (USD)||12.0||14.1||14.2||12.9||12.3|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||69.0||67.8||68.6||70.2||-|
5 years of Jordan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.71||0.0 %||Jan 31|
|Stock Market||3,516||0.08 %||Jun 13|
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