Japan Inflation

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Japan: Core prices rebound in November

December 25, 2015

In November, the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, was flat compared to the previous month. The print, which was slightly below the 0.1% increase tallied in October, mainly reflected that a sizeable increase in prices for clothes and footwear was compensated by lower prices in most of the remaining categories.

Core prices rose 0.1% annually in November, which contrasted the 0.1% decrease tallied in October. The print was slightly up from the flat reading predicted by market analysts. Overall inflation in November stabilized at October’s 0.3%.

Core prices for Tokyo—available one month in advance of the national figures and thus a leading indicator for countrywide inflation—were up 0.1% in December over the same month last year (November: 0.0% year-on-year).

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects that core inflation will be between 0.8% and 1.5% in the fiscal year ending March 2017. In the following fiscal year, the BoJ sees inflation somewhere between 1.2% and 2.1%. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation of 0.8% in the calendar year 2016, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2017, the panel sees inflation at 1.9%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Japan Inflation Chart


Japan Inflation November 2015

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month var. of consumer price index in %.
Source: Statistics Bureau (SB) and Met the why particular calculations.


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