Japan Economic Outlook
March 26, 2019Despite a confirmed rebound in economic activity in the fourth quarter of last year, available data suggests that growth was weak in the first quarter of 2019. The average manufacturing PMI hit an over two-year low in Q1, as nominal exports contracted for the third consecutive month in February amid an economic slowdown in China. Moreover, consumer confidence deteriorated markedly at the outset of the year, which does not bode well for private consumption this year, while machinery orders—a leading indicator for investment in the coming three to six months—contracted for the third period in a row in January. In light of recent developments, the government downgraded its assessment of the economy for the first time in three years on 20 March. This could prompt Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to take action ahead of the election in the upper house, which is to be held this July.
Japan Economic GrowthFrontloaded consumer spending ahead of the planned sales tax hike in October and a recovery in gross fixed investment—partially due to works related to the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games—will shore up economic growth this year. On the downside, the economy will feel the pinch of weak global demand, especially from China and Europe. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 0.8% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 0.6% in 2020.
Japan Economy Data
5 years of Japan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||-0.05||-4.41 %||Apr 12|
|Exchange Rate||112.0||-0.35 %||Apr 12|
|Stock Market||21,871||0.11 %||Apr 12|
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Japan Economic News
April 17, 2019
Nominal yen-denominated merchandise exports fell 2.4% year-on-year in March, following the 1.2% decrease in February.
April 11, 2019
Core machinery orders, a leading indicator for capital spending over a three- to six-month period, posted the first increase in fourth months in February but missed market expectations, suggesting that capex will likely remain subdued in the months ahead.
April 8, 2019
Consumer sentiment declined from 41.5 in February to 11.5 in March, marking the lowest reading since February 2016.
March 29, 2019
Industrial production expanded for the first time in four months, increasing 1.4% on a month-on-month and seasonally-adjusted basis in February.
March 22, 2019
The Nikkei flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was unchanged at February’s 48.9% (previously reported: 48.5) in March, the lowest level since July 2016.