Japan Economic Forecast

Japan Economic Outlook

January 30, 2018

Strong global demand, especially for high-tech electronics, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s ultra-accommodative monetary policy continued to shore up economic activity in Q4. Healthy international demand for Japanese goods sent the manufacturing PMI to multi-year highs, and boosted capital expenditure. Robust economic activity is increasing job creation, with the unemployment rate hitting a 25-year low in November. Moreover, a tighter job market is adding upward pressure on salaries, which is translating into stronger retail sales. Japan, along with another 11 countries, agreed on 23 January to sign a new version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal on 8 March, without the U.S. The accord is a win for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had struggled to save the pact following President Donald Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out from the agreement in January 2017.

Japan Economic Growth

Economic growth should remain strong this year on the back of resilient global trade and accommodative financial conditions. Japan’s stellar growth trajectory could, however, be clouded by a disorderly slowdown in China, higher trade barriers and an appreciation of the JPY due to mounting geopolitical risks. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 1.3% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, they see growth at 1.0%.

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Japan Facts

Bond Yield0.06-4.41 %Feb 20
Exchange Rate117.3-0.35 %Feb 20
Stock Market21,9250.11 %Feb 20

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