Jamaica Economic Forecast

Jamaica Economic Outlook

November 6, 2018

The economy accelerated in the second quarter thanks to strong performances from the agriculture and extractive sectors. Looking at Q3, the economy appeared to perform fairly well, with the unemployment rate falling to a multi-year low in July and consumer confidence reaching a record high in the quarter. Moreover, tourist arrivals expanded robustly through September. Meanwhile, in late October, it was reported that the government is looking into privatizing some of its assets to strengthen the fiscal position, and a shortlist is expected to be finalized before the end of Q1 2019.

Jamaica Economic Growth

The economy accelerated in the second quarter thanks to strong performances from the agriculture and extractive sectors. Looking at Q3, the economy appeared to perform fairly well, with the unemployment rate falling to a multi-year low in July and consumer confidence reaching a record high in the quarter. Moreover, tourist arrivals expanded robustly through September. Meanwhile, in late October, it was reported that the government is looking into privatizing some of its assets to strengthen the fiscal position, and a shortlist is expected to be finalized before the end of Q1 2019.

Jamaica Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.82.82.82.82.8
GDP per capita (USD)5,1284,9655,0424,9695,178
GDP (USD bn)14.313.914.214.114.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.50.70.91.40.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.0-0.8-0.5-0.2-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.53.0-5.00.4-  
Unemployment Rate15.313.713.513.213.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.1-0.5-0.3-0.20.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)141111121114114
Money (annual variation in %)4.24.414.511.929.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.76.23.71.75.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.48.33.72.34.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.250.253.003.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)116.1114.4120.0128.9124.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)99.9111.0116.7125.2128.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.5-8.0-3.0-0.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.4-1.1-0.4-0.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.6-4.4-3.7-3.6-  
Exports (USD billion)1.61.51.31.2-  
Imports (USD billion)6.25.85.04.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-8.4-7.5-13.0-4.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.8-6.1-14.4-4.5-  
International Reserves (USD)1.82.52.93.33.8
External Debt (% of GDP)90.711199.5110.0-  

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