Jamaica Economic Forecast

Jamaica Economic Outlook

October 11, 2017

Growth has remained fairly anaemic so far this year, with Q2’s expansion curtailed by heavy flooding which hampered the performance of the agricultural and mining sectors. On the positive side, the service sector appeared to be in better shape in the second quarter, with a strong performance from the hotels and restaurants industry. In a recent staff visit to move towards disbursing around USD 180 million in funding, the IMF praised the country for meeting the performance criteria set out in the economic program. The Fund highlighted greater job creation and the primary budget surplus as positive signs, but also urged the government to speed up public wage negotiations. Further streamlining the bloated state sector would allow greater investment and strengthen the government’s fiscal position.

Jamaica Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)2.82.82.82.82.8
GDP per capita (USD)5,3465,1284,9645,0684,958
GDP (USD bn)14.814.313.914.314.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.60.50.71.01.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.8-1.0-0.8-0.8-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-5.05.53.0-5.9-  
Unemployment Rate13.715.213.713.513.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.10.1-0.5-0.3-0.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)145111138120115
Money (annual variation in %)4.05.53.314.812.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.09.76.23.71.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.99.48.33.72.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.255.755.755.255.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)92.42116.1114.4120.0128.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)88.4299.9111.0116.7125.2
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-9.5-8.0-3.0-0.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.4-1.4-1.1-0.4-0.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.6-4.7-4.4-3.7-3.5
Exports (USD billion)1.71.61.51.31.2
Imports (USD billion)6.36.25.85.04.7
Exports (annual variation in %)5.5-8.4-7.5-13.0-8.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.7-1.8-6.1-14.6-5.9
International Reserves (USD)2.01.82.52.93.3
External Debt (% of GDP)96.790.711199.0-  

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Jamaica Economic Growth

October 11, 2017

GDP growth is expected to accelerate next year thanks to ongoing IMF support, a strengthening global economy and positive spillovers from the government’s reform agenda. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to expand 1.8% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s projection.

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