Israel Economic Forecast

Israel Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

The fourth quarter seems to have followed in the footsteps of the rapid domestic-demand-driven economic growth observed in the third quarter. Consumer confidence in November reached its highest level since the survey began on a broad-based improvement. In the same month, the Composite State of the Economy Index edged higher thanks to a solid domestic economy, as the external sector dragged on growth somewhat. The index thus trended markedly above the average reading of the third quarter in October–November. Moreover, November PMI data highlighted improved business conditions in the manufacturing sector thanks to resilient domestic-demand dynamics, which offset a drop in foreign demand. Although exports contracted in the same month, the trade deficit narrowed owing to a moderation of import growth. In the political arena, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced snap elections on 24 December, moving the scheduled general elections forward by six months as a police investigation accusing Netanyahu of corruption reached its climax.

Israel Economic Growth

The economy is expected to be buttressed by domestic forces: Private consumption should benefit from a lower tax burden and still-favorable financial conditions, while fixed investment should reap the fruits of new gas- and oil-related projects. Regional tensions remain a key downside risk, however, clouding the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists forecast economic growth to moderate to 3.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2020, our panel sees the economy expanding 3.3%.

Israel Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)8.18.28.48.58.7
GDP per capita (USD)36,01239,19136,78737,09241,541
GDP (USD bn)290322308317362
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.23.52.64.03.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.74.23.75.53.2
Investment (annual variation in %)3.60.8-0.811.92.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.51.22.21.73.7
Unemployment Rate6.35.95.34.84.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.1-2.7-2.1-2.1-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)66.065.362.660.759.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.8-0.2-1.0-0.20.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.50.5-0.6-0.50.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.000.250.100.100.10
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.473.893.903.853.47
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.613.583.893.843.60
Current Account (% of GDP)3.03.75.03.82.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)8.711.915.512.010.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.9-7.2-3.3-7.4-9.5
Exports (USD billion)62.463.556.756.258.0
Imports (USD billion)70.270.760.063.567.5
Exports (annual variation in %)2.21.9-10.8-0.93.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.20.7-15.25.96.3
International Reserves (USD)81.886.190.698.4113
External Debt (% of GDP)34.529.327.927.724.7

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Israel Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.26-1.69 %Jan 16
Exchange Rate3.68-0.37 %Jan 16
Stock Market1,369-0.91 %Jan 16

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