Ireland Economic Outlook
January 29, 2019While still strong, the highly-open Irish economy is likely experiencing a slowdown ahead of the UK’s departure from the Eurozone, with the prospect of a no-deal Brexit weighing on business investment. This was visible in the third quarter, which saw a marked downturn in growth as uncertainty surrounding Brexit has led to businesses delaying investment decisions. While exports surged overall in October and November, weakness in the sterling relative to the euro has made Irish exports less competitive, thus having an adverse impact on sales to the UK. Available data for the fourth quarter corroborates this downward trend: Industrial production contracted, on average, in the first two months of Q4; the manufacturing and services PMIs lost ground in the quarter; and consumer confidence remained in pessimistic territory throughout the period, as households’ concerns over Brexit intensified.
Ireland Economic GrowthThe economy is set to lose traction in 2019, as export growth weakens on a wider slowdown in the global economy. Moreover, private consumption is expected to expand at a slower pace as households’ purchasing power is curbed by higher inflation, while government spending will also likely slow on tighter fiscal consolidation measures. That said, domestic demand should rebound in tandem with fixed investment swinging back into positive territory. Primary risks to the outlook continue to stem from uncertainties surrounding Brexit, particularly the prospect of a hard-Brexit. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 3.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month's forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.
Ireland Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||0.46||0.27 %||Jan 30|
|Exchange Rate||1.14||0.65 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||5,860||-0.39 %||Jan 30|
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Ireland Economic News
April 4, 2019
The KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI consumer sentiment index recovered some lost ground in March, climbing to 93.1 from 86.5 in February.
April 4, 2019
The highly volatile Irish manufacturing industries production index declined 0.4% in seasonally-adjusted, month-on-month terms, contrasting a 16.3% rise in January.
April 3, 2019
The Irish service sector decelerated slightly in March, reflected by a drop in the Investec service Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to 55.3 in March, down from 55.9 in February.
April 2, 2019
Business conditions in Ireland’s manufacturing sector eased slightly at the end of the first quarter, but nonetheless remained robust.
March 14, 2019
National accounts data published by the Central Statistics Office on 14 March showed that the economy slowed markedly for the second consecutive quarter in Q4 2018.