Iran Economic Forecast

Iran Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

Economic growth continues to stabilize in SH 2017, which ends in March 2018, following the surge in SH 2016 as a result of the lifting of economic sanctions. GDP expanded 4.3% annually in the July–September period due to a robust external sector, an expanding public sector and a rebound in gross fixed capital formation. Oil activities were also resilient in the same period, while the construction sector expanded for the first time in nearly three years. Although U.S. President Donald Trump waived Iran nuclear sanctions on 12 January, he stated that this was the last time, unless the U.S. and Europe reach a new agreement before May that addresses human rights abuses and Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Iran Economic Growth

While the economy is recovering following years of harsh economic sanctions, mounting political tensions in the region and concerns that the economic sanctions could be restored cloud Iran’s growth prospects. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see growth of 4.2% in SH 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In SH 2019, growth will remain broadly stable at 4.4%.

Iran Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)76.477.478.579.580.5
GDP per capita (USD)7,5525,6295,4514,948-  
GDP (USD bn)577436428393-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-6.6-1.94.3-1.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.7-1.03.1-3.5-  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  11.812.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.6-0.9-1.2-1.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.811.212.015.914.9
Money (annual variation in %)1.533.241.5-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)41.219.716.28.311.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)30.534.715.611.99.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12,27924,79728,05030,26031,751
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)12,28721,43025,26629,02631,243
Current Account (% of GDP)4.05.83.72.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)23.425.115.99.0-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)28.629.318.112.2-  
Exports (USD billion)97.392.989.064.6-  
Imports (USD billion)68.763.670.952.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-33.3-4.5-4.2-27.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-11.9-7.511.5-26.1-  
International Reserves (USD)114118126128-  

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