Iran Economic Forecast

Iran Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

A 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck the eastern border of Iran on 12 November, killing more than 500 people and devastating the Kermanshah province. Despite the magnitude of earthquake, the areas affected account for roughly 1.5% of national GDP, suggesting that the overall economic impact will be limited. The economy continued to expand healthily in the first quarter of SH 2017 according to the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI), with GDP expanding 6.5% annually. Growth was propelled by the non-oil sector, particularly in services.

Iran Economic Growth

Despite Iran’s stellar economic performance, there are significant downside risks that cloud the economic outlook for 2018, including the restoration of economic sanctions and the escalation of geopolitical tensions. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see growth of 3.9% in SH 2017. They see growth accelerating to 4.3% in SH 2018, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection.

Iran Economy Data

Population (million)76.477.478.579.580.5
GDP per capita (USD)7,5525,6295,4514,948-  
GDP (USD bn)577436428393-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-6.6-1.94.3-1.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.7-1.03.1-3.5-  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  11.812.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.6-0.9-1.2-1.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.811.212.015.914.9
Money (annual variation in %)1.533.241.5-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)41.219.716.28.311.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)30.534.715.611.99.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12,27924,79728,05030,26031,751
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)12,28721,43025,26629,02631,243
Current Account (% of GDP)  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)23.425.115.99.0-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)28.629.318.112.2-  
Exports (USD billion)97.392.989.064.6-  
Imports (USD billion)68.763.670.952.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-33.3-4.5-4.2-27.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-11.9-7.511.5-26.1-  
International Reserves (USD)114118126128-  

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