Iran Economic Forecast

Iran Economic Outlook

October 3, 2017

The economy has been benefiting from growth in tourism exports, foreign direct investment and crude oil production. Over 6 million people visited Iran in the SH year ending in March 2017—50% more than in the preceding SH year—following the removal of economic sanctions and improved inter-country transport links. Iran has recently seen healthy foreign direct investment inflows as international credit lines have become more open. Crude oil production is also expected to increase in coming years as oilfields in the West Karoun region ramp up production.

Iran Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)76.477.478.579.580.5
GDP per capita (USD)7,5525,6295,4514,948-  
GDP (USD bn)577436428393-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-6.6-1.94.3-1.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.7-1.03.1-3.5-  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  11.812.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.6-0.9-1.2-1.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.811.212.015.914.9
Money (annual variation in %)1.533.241.5-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)41.219.716.28.311.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)30.534.715.611.99.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12,27924,79728,05030,26031,751
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)12,28721,43025,26629,02631,243
Current Account (% of GDP)4.05.83.72.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)23.425.115.99.0-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)28.629.318.112.2-  
Exports (USD billion)97.392.989.064.6-  
Imports (USD billion)68.763.670.952.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-33.3-4.5-4.2-27.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-11.9-7.511.5-26.1-  
International Reserves (USD)114118126128-  

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Iran Economic Growth

October 3, 2017

However, economic growth is expected to moderate this Iranian calendar year compared to SH 2016, when it recorded robust growth of 13.4%. High unemployment levels and the prospect of economic sanctions being reinstated by the U.S. government, following a decision due by 15 October, weigh on Iran’s economic outlook. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see growth of 3.9% in SH 2017. They see growth accelerating to 4.6% in SH 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s projection.

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