Indonesia Economic Forecast

Indonesia Economic Outlook

September 19, 2017

Growth is set to accelerate in H2 after a moderate, but stable, performance in H1. Recent economic data points to an upturn: Industrial production rebounded in July, and in August the manufacturing PMI returned to expansionary territory and the trade balance swung back to surplus. In addition, government spending is expected to accelerate going forward. The government has a number of large-scale infrastructure and investment projects in the pipeline, including upgrades to railway links and the creation of “11 new Balis” or tourism destinations. Despite ambitious government spending plans, the economy has failed to kick into a higher gear, and growth has hovered around 5.0% for the past year.

Indonesia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)245249252255259
GDP per capita (USD)3,7503,6723,5323,3713,605
GDP (USD bn)920914891861933
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.05.65.04.95.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.55.45.15.05.0
Investment (annual variation in %)9.15.04.45.04.5
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)5.64.44.64.84.0
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)14.512.914.513.311.0
Unemployment Rate6.16.25.96.25.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.8-2.2-2.1-2.6-2.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)21.422.024.327.528.9
Money (annual variation in %)15.012.811.99.011.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.78.18.43.43.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.06.46.46.43.5
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)5.16.09.3-  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.757.507.757.504.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)12.9-1.022.3-12.115.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)9,63812,17012,38513,78813,473
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)9,36211,44911,86613,39213,302
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.7-3.2-3.1-2.0-1.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-24.4-29.1-27.5-17.5-16.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-1.7-4.1-2.27.79.5
Exports (USD billion)190183176150145
Imports (USD billion)192187178143136
Exports (annual variation in %)-6.6-3.9-3.6-14.6-3.4
Imports (annual variation in %)8.0-2.6-4.5-19.9-4.9
International Reserves (USD)11399.4112116116
External Debt (% of GDP)27.429.132.936.134.0

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Indonesia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.56-0.43 %Oct 13
Exchange Rate13,499-0.04 %Oct 13
Stock Market5,924-0.04 %Oct 13

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Indonesia Economic Growth

September 19, 2017

GDP is seen expanding at a broadly steady pace of 5.1% in 2017. Efforts to improve the business environment and attract FDI are expected to bear fruit next year. The Met the why particular panel sees GDP growing a robust 5.3% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, as increased government spending and investment growth support activity.

Indonesia Economic News

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