Indonesia Economic Forecast

Indonesia Economic Outlook

May 21, 2019

The economy performed fairly well in the first quarter of the year, despite growth slightly undershooting market expectations. Private consumption was likely supported by a multi-decade low unemployment rate and mild inflation, while public consumption appeared to receive a boost from pre-election spending. Moreover, the external sector strengthened amid government measures to curb imports. On the downside, exports declined, while fixed investment growth tapered. Turning to the second quarter, available indicators are fairly downbeat. In April, the manufacturing PMI dipped on stagnating new orders, while the external sector recorded a record trade deficit as exports continued to plunge. On the political front, incumbent Joko Widodo emerged victorious in the 17 April presidential elections, signaling policy continuity.

Indonesia Economic Growth

Growth will be firm this year, underpinned by healthy consumption and investment. Moreover, the external sector should strengthen after significantly dragging on growth last year. Downside risks stem from global trade tensions, potential global financial volatility weighing on the rupiah, and possible delays to infrastructure projects. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 5.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists see the economy expanding 5.2%.

Indonesia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)249252255259262
GDP per capita (USD)3,6723,5323,3693,6053,876
GDP (USD bn)9148918619331,015
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.65.04.95.05.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.45.15.05.04.9
Investment (annual variation in %)5.04.45.04.56.2
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)4.44.64.34.34.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)12.914.513.311.02.9
Unemployment Rate6.25.96.25.65.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.1-2.6-2.5-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)22.024.327.528.930.5
Money (annual variation in %)12.811.99.011.08.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.18.43.43.03.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.46.46.43.53.8
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.507.757.504.754.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-1.022.3-12.115.320.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12,17012,38513,78813,47313,568
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)11,44911,86613,39213,30213,383
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.2-3.1-2.0-1.8-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-29.1-27.5-17.5-17.0-17.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.1-2.27.79.511.8
Exports (USD billion)183176150145169
Imports (USD billion)187178143136157
Exports (annual variation in %)-3.9-3.6-14.6-3.416.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.6-4.5-19.9-4.915.7
International Reserves (USD)99.4112116116130
External Debt (% of GDP)29.132.936.134.334.8

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Indonesia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.70-0.05 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate14,2800.05 %Jun 13
Stock Market6,273-0.32 %Jun 13

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