Indonesia Economic Forecast

Indonesia Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

The economy likely grew strongly in the first quarter of the year. Private consumption should have performed well, boosted by low inflation and government fiscal support to low-income families; indeed, retail sales growth was elevated in January and February. Moreover, tourist arrivals were buoyant in the same two months. On the other hand, manufacturing was soft, with the PMI averaging lower in Q1 than in Q4 2018 amid ebbing global growth. External headwinds also partly explain the sharp fall in goods exports in Q1, which led the trade balance to worsen in annual terms despite a notable decline in imports. On the political front, general elections will be held on 17 April. Incumbent Joko Widodo is the bookies’ favorite, whose victory would signal policy continuity and likely see a renewed focus on infrastructure development.

Indonesia Economic Growth

Economic growth will be firm this year, underpinned by strong private consumption and investment. Moreover, the external sector should strengthen as import growth softens after last year’s surge. Potential delays to infrastructure projects, global trade tensions and uncertain momentum in China pose downside risks. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 5.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists see the economy expanding 5.2%.

Indonesia Economy Data

Population (million)249252255259262
GDP per capita (USD)3,6723,5323,3693,6053,876
GDP (USD bn)9148918619331,015
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)12.914.513.311.02.9
Unemployment Rate6.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.1-2.6-2.5-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)22.024.327.528.930.5
Money (annual variation in %)12.811.
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.507.757.504.754.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-1.022.3-12.115.320.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12,17012,38513,78813,47313,568
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)11,44911,86613,39213,30213,383
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.2-3.1-2.0-1.8-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-29.1-27.5-17.5-17.0-17.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.1-
Exports (USD billion)183176150145169
Imports (USD billion)187178143136157
Exports (annual variation in %)-3.9-3.6-14.6-3.416.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.6-4.5-19.9-4.915.7
International Reserves (USD)99.4112116116130
External Debt (% of GDP)29.132.936.134.334.8

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Indonesia Facts

Bond Yield7.68-0.05 %Apr 12
Exchange Rate14,0930.05 %Apr 12
Stock Market6,116-0.32 %Apr 12

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