India Economic Outlook
February 20, 2018The government unveiled on 1 February its FY 2018 budget, which envisages a fiscal deficit of 3.3% of GDP. The bill mainly benefits low-income earners and rural demographics ahead of a busy election cycle, but also slates higher infrastructure spending and lower corporate tax rates for medium-sized corporations. Meanwhile, the economy continued to make solid progress in the second half of the fiscal year following a lackluster performance in H1, when GDP growth was weighed down by lingering effects of demonetization and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax. Industrial production growth remained buoyant in December, while both the services and manufacturing PMIs pointed to improving economic conditions in January; auto sales also firmed up in the month.
India Economic GrowthEconomic growth is expected to strengthen in FY 2018, with high-frequency indicators showing households are recovering from demonetization and GST-induced distortions. In addition, strong global sentiment, improving business sentiment and robust capital outlays in the FY 2018 budget will lift fixed investment growth next year. The external sector is also expected to drag less on growth on softer import growth and a recovery in export-oriented sectors as GST-related problems fade. Our panel expects growth of 7.3% in FY 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In FY 2019, panelists see a GDP expansion of 7.4%.
India Economy Data
5 years of India economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||7.67||-0.04 %||Feb 20|
|Exchange Rate||64.86||-0.09 %||Feb 20|
|Stock Market||33,704||-0.08 %||Feb 20|
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India Economic News
February 15, 2018
Merchandise export growth moderated for a second consecutive month in January, easing to a 9.0% year-on-year expansion from growth of 12.3% in December.
February 12, 2018
Industrial output moderated in December from November’s outstanding performance but remained resilient and above market expectations.
February 7, 2018
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stayed put at its meeting on 7–8 February, as officials retained their neutral policy stance while acknowledging multiple upside risks to inflation.
February 5, 2018
Operating conditions in India’s manufacturing sector were less upbeat in January from the previous month, with evidence suggesting that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) remains a risk to business performance as firms face delayed payments.
January 15, 2018
Consumer prices eased 0.29% from the previous month in December on the back of seasonal month-on-month decreases in fruit and vegetable prices.