India Economic Outlook
October 16, 2018The economy had a mixed second quarter this fiscal year, which runs from April 2018 to March 2019, after GDP accelerated at the fastest pace in over two years in the first. On the plus side, business activity in the private sector increased in Q2 at a faster rate than in Q1. However, given that India purchases about 80% of the oil it consumes from abroad, recent increases in oil prices caused the merchandise trade deficit to widen through to August. To help reduce the growing external sector imbalance, the government raised import tariffs on USD 12 billion worth of imports on 26 September. In addition, excise duties on gasoline and diesel were cut on 4 October to lessen the impact of higher fuel prices on consumers.
India Economic GrowthEconomic growth should accelerate in FY 2018, due to fading disruptions from the demonetization of November 2016 and the launch of a goods and services tax in July 2017. However, recent signs of fiscal slippage in the run-up to next year’s general elections, escalating global trade protectionism and higher oil prices weigh on the outlook. Our panel expects GDP growth of 7.4% in FY 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 7.4% again in FY 2019.
India Economy Data
5 years of India economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||7.91||-0.04 %||Oct 17|
|Exchange Rate||73.53||-0.09 %||Oct 18|
|Stock Market||34,780||-0.08 %||Oct 17|
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India Economic News
October 15, 2018
In September, consumer prices fell 0.07% from the previous month, contrasting the 0.43% rise recorded in August.
October 12, 2018
Annual industrial production increased 4.3% in August, down from July’s revised 6.5% (previously reported: +6.6% year-on-year) but above market analysts’ expectations of 3.8% growth. There was a mixed performance across industrial sectors in August.
October 5, 2018
At its monetary policy meeting on 3–5 October, five out of the six members of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep interest rates unchanged.
October 4, 2018
The composite Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), produced by Nikkei and IHS Market, fell to 51.6 in September from 51.9 in August, but remained above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the private sector.
September 14, 2018
In August, merchandise exports increased 19.2% compared to the same month last year, up from the 14.3% expansion recorded in July.