Hong Kong Economic Outlook
February 20, 2018The economy is likely to have posted another strong result in the final quarter of 2017. Despite moderating slightly in December, retail sales growth accelerated in Q4 from Q3 mainly due to a recovery in tourist arrivals from mainland China. Moreover, dynamics in the job market remain robust, with the unemployment rate in December hitting the lowest level in over 20 years. A booming global economy is translating into sustained growth in exports. Although housing prices continue to hit all-time highs, some warning signs have started to emerge: Chinese developers, which represented around 50% of the total land buyers in 2016, are pulling back from their rapid expansion in the island due to Hong Kong’s longer development cycle and Chinese authorities’ efforts to reduce capital outflows. Financial Secretary Paul Chan will deliver the budget for this year on February 28. The government is likely to unveil a more expansionary budget, given the expected massive fiscal surplus the island achieved in 2017.
Hong Kong Economic GrowthAlthough growth will decelerate this year, the economy should expand at a robust rate on the back of strong retail sales, healthy dynamics in the financial sector and a resilient property market. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 2.8% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, before ticking down to 2.6% in 2019.
Hong Kong Economy Data
5 years of Hong Kong economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Hong Kong Facts
|Bond Yield||2.08||3.38 %||Feb 22|
|Exchange Rate||7.82||-0.11 %||Feb 22|
|Stock Market||30,966||-1.92 %||Feb 22|
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Hong Kong Economic News
February 5, 2018
The Nikkei Hong Kong Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, inched down from 51.5 in December to 51.1 in January.
February 1, 2018
Retail sales volumes grew 4.3% in annual terms in December, decelerating from the revised 7.0% jump—a 33-month-high—recorded in November (previously reported: +6.9% year-on-year).
January 23, 2018
Inflation ticked up to 1.7% in December, a modest acceleration from the 1.6% reading of November.
January 4, 2018
In December, the Nikkei Hong Kong Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by IHS Markit edged higher, climbing further into expansionary territory.
January 3, 2018
Retail sales volumes grew 6.9% in annual terms in November, accelerating from October’s 3.9% expansion.